I'm in Miami, and I'm pleased to say that I'm joined by Nassim Taleb, a distinguished scientist of Universe Investments and the author of The Black Swan. I assume time honored to be here. So last time we spoke in October and since then we had a lot of volatility in the stock market and the price of gold has spiked by almost 30%.Let's start with gold. What is your take on precious metals now. So my point is I'm not making commentary on the price of metals, but it's largely structural.The U.S. is progressivel ...

Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Asahi Noguchi indicates a heightened need to adjust the policy rate as Japan moves closer to its 2% inflation target, signaling a new phase for monetary policy [2][9] - Inflation expectations are slowly converging on 2%, driven by shifts in corporate price and wage-setting behavior and growing corporate profits facilitating cost pass-through to prices [3][9] - Despite ongoing inflation, there is a slowing rise in import prices, which could lead to slower consumer inflation [4] Labor Market and External Risks - The labor market is near full employment and the output gap is close to zero, but there are concerns over potential downside risks stemming from U.S. tariff policy [3][9] - Noguchi emphasizes the need for a flexible policy approach to address evolving risks, particularly those that could delay real wage growth [3] Corporate Developments - Deutsche Lufthansa (DLAKF) has set ambitious financial targets for 2028–2030, aiming for a significant profitability boost and a global workforce reduction of approximately 4,000 jobs [5][9] - The airline plans to modernize its fleet with over 230 new aircraft as part of its strategy [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated $422 million in revenue for Q1 2025, with adjusted gross profit of $136 million and adjusted EBITDA of $73 million [16] - Average utilization of the rental fleet was just under 78%, up from 73% in Q1 2024, indicating improved operational efficiency [16][17] - The total OEC (Original Equipment Cost) in the rental fleet reached $1.55 billion, marking a $95 million increase year-over-year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ERS (Equipment Rental Services) segment reported $154 million in revenue, a 13% increase from $136 million in Q1 2024, with both rental revenue and rental asset sales showing significant year-over-year growth [17][18] - The PES (Product Equipment Sales) segment saw equipment sales of $232 million, slightly down from the previous year, but with a backlog increase of $51 million or 14% [19][20] - The APS (Aftermarket Parts and Services) segment maintained revenue at $35 million, flat compared to Q1 2024, with a gross profit margin of 22% [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong demand in core T&D (Transmission and Distribution) markets, driven by increased electricity demand and maintenance spending [6][7] - Average OEC on rent for Q1 was over $1.2 billion, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase [7][16] - The backlog in the PES segment ended at just over $420 million, consistent with historical averages [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to continue investing in its rental fleet to meet current and projected demand, with a focus on maintaining strong relationships with suppliers [9][21] - Management expressed confidence in achieving growth targets for 2025, reaffirming revenue guidance of $1.97 billion to $2.06 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $370 million to $390 million [23][24] - The company is monitoring U.S. tariff policies closely and has implemented strategies to mitigate potential impacts on operations [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains cautiously optimistic about achieving growth targets despite economic uncertainties related to tariff policies [7][14] - The company highlighted the resilience of its end markets and the importance of long-term relationships with suppliers and customers [14] - Management expects to see continued strong demand in the second half of the year, particularly in the ERS and TES segments [29] Other Important Information - Borrowings under the ABL (Asset-Based Lending) at the end of Q1 were $655 million, with a net leverage of 4.8 times [22] - The company aims to reduce net leverage to below three times by the end of fiscal 2026 [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: What gives you conviction in the acceleration in revenue growth? - Management highlighted strong demand in the ERS segment, with 13% revenue growth in Q1 and a robust backlog, indicating positive trends for the remainder of the year [26][29] Question: Does the IJ pause by the Trump administration create questions for customers? - Management noted that they are not seeing delays in projects from customers and emphasized the flexibility of their rental model [30] Question: Can you provide more color on agreements with vendors to mitigate tariff exposure? - Management discussed strong relationships with chassis suppliers and proactive inventory management to mitigate tariff impacts [38] Question: How should we think about inventory reduction by year-end? - Management indicated that inventory reduction will be more second-half weighted, with continued inventory purchases in Q2 [41] Question: How quickly do orders convert to sales revenue? - Management explained that conversion times vary by product category, with some converting quickly and others taking three to six months [51] Question: What is the target leverage by year-end? - Management aims for meaningful movement in leverage, potentially getting close to or below four times if high-end cash flow targets are met [55]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company generated $422 million in revenue, $136 million in adjusted gross profit, and $73 million in adjusted EBITDA, reflecting strong year-over-year performance [17][25] - Average utilization of the rental fleet increased to just under 78%, up from 73% in Q1 2024, indicating improved operational efficiency [17][18] - The total OEC (Original Equipment Cost) in the rental fleet reached $1.55 billion, marking a $95 million increase year-over-year [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ERS (Equipment Rental Services) segment reported $154 million in revenue for Q1, a 13% increase from $136 million in Q1 2024, driven by strong rental demand [18][22] - PES (Product Equipment Sales) segment saw equipment sales of $232 million, slightly down from the previous year, but with a significant backlog increase of $51 million or 14% [22][24] - APS (Aftermarket Parts and Services) revenue remained flat at $35 million, with a gross profit margin of 22%, down from the previous year due to higher material costs [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted robust demand in core T&D (Transmission and Distribution) markets, with utility contractor customers experiencing sustained activity levels [6][7] - The backlog in the PES segment increased to over $420 million, aligning with historical averages, indicating strong future sales potential [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to continue investing in its rental fleet to meet current and projected demand, with a focus on maintaining strong relationships with suppliers and customers [8][15] - Management emphasized the importance of adapting to changing U.S. tariff policies and leveraging inventory strategies to mitigate potential disruptions [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about achieving growth targets for 2025, despite economic uncertainties related to tariff policies [7][15] - The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting total revenue between $1.97 billion and $2.06 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $370 million and $390 million [25][26] Other Important Information - The company reported borrowings under its ABL (Asset-Based Lending) facility of $655 million, an increase of $73 million from the previous quarter, primarily for equipment purchases and working capital needs [24] - The company aims to reduce net leverage to below three times by the end of fiscal 2026, with a target of $50 million to $100 million in levered free cash flow for 2025 [25][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: What gives you conviction in the acceleration in revenue growth? - Management highlighted strong demand in the ERS segment, with a 13% revenue growth in Q1 and a robust backlog, indicating positive trends for the remainder of the year [29][32] Question: Does the IJ pause by the Trump administration create questions for customers? - Management noted that they are not seeing delays in projects from customers and emphasized the flexibility of their rental model to adapt to changing customer needs [33] Question: Can you provide more color on agreements with vendors to mitigate tariff exposure? - Management confirmed proactive strategies with suppliers, including pulling forward inventory purchases to manage costs effectively [40][41] Question: How should we think about inventory reduction as we head towards the end of the year? - Management indicated that inventory reduction will be more second-half weighted, with continued adjustments based on customer demand [42][43] Question: How quickly do orders convert to sales revenue? - Management explained that conversion times vary by product category, with some converting quickly while others may take three to six months [55] Question: What is the target leverage by year-end? - Management stated that they aim for meaningful movement in leverage, potentially getting close to or below four times if they hit the high end of their cash flow target [58]