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The 'Debasement Trade' Just Hit A Wall—And The Bond Market Knows Something Gold Bugs Don't
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-27 16:31
Core Insights - The narrative of investors fleeing the dollar due to fears of currency debasement is contradicted by actual market data, particularly in the bond and foreign exchange markets [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals have seen significant gains this year, with gold increasing by 50%, while silver and platinum have experienced even larger increases [2]. - Despite the rise in precious metals, the bond market shows stability, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield falling to 3.93%, its lowest level in over a year, and down nearly 60 basis points for the year [4]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations - The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate, indicating long-term inflation expectations, dropped to 2.275%, the lowest since June, while the 30-year TIPS breakeven rate reached 2.21%, its lowest since May [5]. Group 3: Currency Stability - The U.S. dollar, despite a poor first-half performance in 2025, has remained stable since April, with the dollar index ending last week close to its six-month average and outperforming G10 currency peers over the past month [5].