RT Bloomberg New Economy (@BBGNewEconomy)The dollar’s supremacy faces new questions as U.S. debt soars. If it falters, what takes its place? Host of #TheBigTake @davidgura leads a #BloombergNewEconomy discussion with:◾ President & CEO @FTI_Global Jenny Johnson◾ CEO @EuroclearGroup Valerie Urbain◾ Co-Founder & Co-CEO of Dymon Asia Danny YongLive 11/19 at 10:10 AM SGT: https://t.co/y5rgvQy9gq ...

Core Insights - President Trump's assertion that U.S. growth can manage debt reflects a misunderstanding of the debt cycle, as noted by Ray Dalio, who warns that this phase is dangerous when leaders confuse prosperity with immunity [1][5]. Economic Policy and Tax Cuts - Trump highlighted his "Big, Beautiful Bill," which aims to lock in and expand tax cuts from his first term while introducing new deductions for tips, overtime pay, and Social Security income for seniors [2]. - The combination of this tax package and recent tariffs is expected to generate "record growth" and significant fiscal benefits [2]. Debt and Economic Growth - Despite a reported Real GDP growth of 3.8% in Q2 2025, the gross federal debt remains substantial at approximately $37.4 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio around 100% [3]. - Tariff revenues are projected to reach about $165 billion by August and an annualized $300 billion, which is insufficient to address the trillion-dollar debt reduction needed [4]. Warnings from Debt Cycle Analysis - Ray Dalio's research indicates that during economic booms, increased lending can temporarily boost spending and asset prices, but this is unsustainable as income growth will eventually lag behind loan costs [5][6]. - Dalio emphasizes that debt burdens can only be alleviated when nominal income growth exceeds nominal interest rates, cautioning that excessive stimulus may lead to inflation and currency devaluation [5].

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, anticipates that gold and non-fiat currencies will gain significance as U.S. debt becomes unsustainable, posing a threat to the current monetary order [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - Dalio stated that U.S. debt has reached an unsustainable level, with over-spending being six times the revenue generated [2]. - The projected U.S. spending for 2025 is $7 trillion, while revenue is expected to be only $5 trillion, resulting in a $2 trillion deficit [3]. - Considering interest and existing debt, Dalio indicated that the U.S. would need to sell $12 trillion in debt, highlighting a supply-demand imbalance as global demand for this debt is lacking [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Dalio recommends that investors allocate 10% of their portfolios to gold as a diversification strategy [1]. - He emphasized that non-fiat currencies will become increasingly important as a store of wealth and money [1]. Group 3: Broader Implications - Dalio expressed concerns about the potential end of the U.S. empire due to various factors affecting the monetary order [4].

Investment Strategy - Ray Dalio suggests investors allocate up to 15% of their portfolios to Bitcoin and gold [1] - The allocation is recommended as a hedge against growing U S debt and economic instability [1]

Economic Forecasts - The analysis suggests a potential hyperinflation event occurring on March 15, 2027, based on factors like escalating U S debt [1] - Mainstream economists project a stable 2% inflation rate, contrasting with the hyperinflation prediction [1] Debt and Currency Concerns - The U S debt is highlighted as exceeding $35 trillion [1] - Eroding global confidence in the dollar is noted, influenced by the rise of BRICS alternatives [1] Risk Factors - Unchecked deficits are identified as a potential catalyst that could tip the scale towards hyperinflation [1] - Peter Schiff's warnings of a potential crisis in 2025 are referenced as a contrarian forecast [1]