Group 1 - Gold prices are rising due to increased expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1][2] - New York futures increased by 0.5% to $4,107.30 per troy ounce, while spot prices rose by 1.7% to $4,133.98 per ounce [1] - Traders are pricing in an approximately 81% chance of a rate cut in December, following comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller regarding a soft labor market and slowing inflation [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. dollar remains stable ahead of a potential government shutdown, which could impact the release of key economic data, particularly the monthly jobs report [1][2] - The Australian dollar is performing well due to the central bank's cautious stance on inflation [1] Economic Impact - The U.S. government funding is set to expire, and without a temporary spending deal, economic data releases, including employment statistics, will be halted [2] - The payrolls report, crucial for Federal Reserve policymakers, is scheduled for release on Friday, and any delay could lead to increased market volatility [3] Market Reactions - Traders are anticipating at least one more U.S. rate cut this year, with a strong likelihood of a second cut by year-end [4] - The dollar index has decreased nearly 10% this year and was down 0.1% at 97.82 [4] Currency Performance - The Japanese yen has strengthened against the dollar, which was down 0.4% at 148.02 yen [5] - There is a 60% chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December, influencing investor sentiment [5] Strategic Outlook - Selling the dollar against the yen may become a popular strategy if the U.S. government shutdown occurs, as the dollar has been under pressure from political uncertainty [6][7] - The dollar has faced challenges from the risk of a government shutdown and declining oil prices, while the yen has emerged as a strong performer [7]

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Property Market in Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR - **Key Insights**: The property market is experiencing mixed signals with leading indicators in Mainland China showing declines while Hong Kong sees strong tourist arrivals. Mainland China Property Market - **Leading Indicators**: - Centaline tier-1 cities' secondary asking price index decreased from 19.4 to 18.5, marking the lowest since May 2024 [4] - Centaline manager confidence index fell from 45 to 44, reaching a new low since October 2024 [4] - **Sales Performance**: - 60-city primary sales increased by 1% year-over-year, recovering from a previous decline of 8% [4] - Sales registrations in Beijing improved by 17% year-over-year following policy easing on August 7, but asking prices remained stable [4] - 12-city secondary sales year-over-year growth improved from 4% to 6% [4] - **Market Dynamics**: - The sector's share price rose by 3% last week, with Vanke outperforming at +9% [4] - Notable underperformers included Shimao (-14%) and A-Living (-7%) [4] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Top picks include CR Land, CR Mixc, and Jinmao, with potential upside in laggards like COLI, COPH, and Longfor [4] Hong Kong Property Market - **Tourism Impact**: - Tourist arrivals increased by 1% week-over-week to 1.24 million, the highest year-to-date, with a year-over-year growth of 19% [4] - **Residential Sales**: - Residential sell-through rates have slowed, with Blue Coast II achieving a 56% sell-through rate, lower than expected [4] - Home price index fell by 0.5% week-over-week [4] - **Market Indicators**: - Centa Valuation Index rose to 65.2, indicating banks are revising up valuations, which supports price stabilization [4] - Secondary transactions in top 35 estates increased by 52% week-over-week to 82 units [4] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Among landlords, top picks include Swire Prop, Hang Lung, Wharf REIC, and Link REIT; among developers, Henderson and Sino are favored [4] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: - The overall sentiment in the property market remains cautious, with leading indicators suggesting potential challenges ahead [4] - **Credit Views**: - Vanke reported a quarterly net loss of RMB 6 billion, with net gearing rising to 90% in Q2 2025, but is not expected to default due to support from Shenzhen Metro [9] - **Share Price Movements**: - The property sector in Mainland China and Hong Kong showed varied performance, with some companies experiencing significant fluctuations in share prices [4][55] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the property markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for investors.