Economic rebuilding depends on the U.S. lifting sanctions. The wait for Venezuela — and U.S. companies — could be long. ...

Venezuela has begun shutting wells that pump extra-heavy crude in the Orinoco Belt, as the U.S. blockade is squeezing shipments and filling up storage space, sources with knowledge of the plans of state oil firm PDVSA told Bloomberg. PDVSA, the key handler of Venezuela’s crude exports, mostly to China, began disabling producing wells in the Orinoco Belt two days ago, following a decision taken on December 23, according to Bloomberg’s anonymous sources. The state oil firm will look to shut in about 15% ...

Core Viewpoint - India is expected to reduce its imports of Russian crude oil by 50%, while still seeking ways to circumvent U.S. sanctions to maintain some oil flow [1][2]. Group 1: Import Reductions - A former foreign minister indicated that India will gradually decrease oil purchases from Russia, projecting a 50% reduction, although some oil will continue to be imported [1]. - Indian companies and banks are likely to diversify their oil sources to avoid U.S. sanctions, leading to a steady decline in orders from Russia [2]. Group 2: Current and Future Import Data - U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil have already led to a decrease in new orders from Indian refiners, with Kpler data showing imports from Russia at 1.855 million barrels daily in November, up from 1.48 million barrels daily in October [3]. - Expectations for November indicate a potential drop in imports to around 1 million barrels daily, a decrease of 47% compared to previous levels, marking the lowest imports since 2022 [5]. - Over the first nine months of the year, India imported a total of 5.4 million tons of Russian crude, spending approximately $2.43 billion [5].

Core Viewpoint - Reliance Industries has purchased 1 million barrels of crude oil from Kuwait as Indian refiners reduce purchases from Russia due to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers [1][3]. Group 1: Purchase Details - Reliance Industries acquired the crude through a tender from Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), which sought buyers for 500,000 barrels of Kuwait Heavy and 500,000 barrels of Eocene crude [2]. - The cargoes are scheduled for loading between December 6 and 9 [2]. Group 2: Market Context - Following U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil firms, Reliance has shifted its focus to Middle Eastern crude, purchasing millions of barrels from the region [3][5]. - Reliance operates the world's largest refinery complex at Jamnagar, with a processing capacity of 1.4 million barrels per day [4]. Group 3: Compliance and Strategy - Reliance has a long-term agreement with Rosneft to buy nearly 500,000 barrels per day but is unlikely to continue imports from sanctioned entities to avoid secondary U.S. sanctions [5]. - Most Indian refiners have ceased orders for Russian crude for December, indicating a significant shift in sourcing strategies due to geopolitical pressures [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has granted Trinidad and Tobago a license to negotiate a gas deal with Venezuela, allowing them to proceed without facing U.S. sanctions, which is crucial for Trinidad and Tobago's energy strategy and economic stability [1][2]. Group 1: License and Negotiation - The U.S. Treasury Department issued a license that permits Trinidad and Tobago to engage in gas transactions in Venezuelan waters, which are otherwise prohibited due to U.S. sanctions [1][2]. - Trinidad and Tobago has six months to negotiate the deal, with specific targets set by the U.S. that must be met during this period [2][4]. - The new license allows for initial negotiations but does not cover the entire gas project, indicating a phased approach to development [4][7]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The gas project is viewed as essential for Trinidad and Tobago to increase its gas production and generate new revenue streams, especially as government spending has outpaced income in recent years [3]. - The U.S. has expressed support for the gas deal while ensuring it does not significantly benefit the Maduro regime in Venezuela, highlighting the geopolitical considerations involved [5][6]. Group 3: Historical Context - A previous license for the same gas project was granted in October 2023 but was revoked in April, which had negatively impacted Trinidad and Tobago's energy security [6]. - The terms of the new license differ from the previous one, although specific details have not been disclosed [7].

Economic Context - Iranian locals are adopting Bitcoin and crypto due to a collapsing rial and U S sanctions [1] - The rial has decreased in value by over 90% since 2018 [1] Cryptocurrency Adoption - Bitcoin is perceived as "Freedom Money" in Iran [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chevron Corporation has been ordered by the Trump administration to cease operations in Venezuela within 30 days, significantly impacting both U.S. and Venezuelan oil markets [1][2]. Group 1: Chevron's Operations and Impact - Chevron has been operating in Venezuela since 2022 under a U.S. sanctions exception, exporting crude oil and recovering billions in debt [2]. - The company’s joint ventures with PDVSA account for nearly 20% of Venezuela's oil output, which has stabilized the country's economy and controlled inflation [3]. - Chevron's operations have provided a steady revenue stream for Venezuela through royalties and taxes, benefiting its oil and banking sectors [6]. Group 2: Market Implications - The termination of Chevron's license will likely reduce Venezuela's oil revenues and could pressure U.S. gasoline prices, increasing risks for U.S. companies investing abroad [4]. - Chevron's Venezuelan oil exports decreased from 294,000 barrels per day in January to 252,000 barrels per day in February, indicating a downward trend that may affect global crude supply chains [5]. - The loss of Chevron's payments may weaken Venezuela's exchange market, leading to currency depreciation and further economic instability [7].