Tech Sector Analysis - Tech earnings continue to print well into the double digits, reaching all-time highs, driven by fundamentals rather than just multiple expansion [1] - The value of tech in portfolios is significant, especially with tariff uncertainty, making US growth exposure valuable [2] - Overweighting tech in portfolios can be justified if earnings continue to print and multiples expand, particularly if a tariff-induced slowdown occurs [3] - Quality active management is crucial within the tech sector, specifically within the "Magnificent 7" portion [4] Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The market is still awaiting the bite of tariffs, with a wide range of potential outcomes [5][6] - Commentary on consumer behavior and business investment decisions is important in assessing the impact of tariffs [6] - Focus should be on how tariff rates on major partners (Canada, Mexico, China) affect the economy, while monitoring GDP resilience [8] - There are concerns about the lower cohort, with negative year-on-year card spend and light comps in certain sectors [7] Investment Strategy - A balanced approach in a multi-asset portfolio is currently most appropriate [10] - Mid-single-digit yields on core fixed income are competitive with mid-single-digit earnings yields on equities, given elevated multiples [11] - The strategy is to remain patient, vigilant, and opportunistic, waiting for the next bout of volatility [12] - US growth is expected to be the dominant driver of 10-year Treasury yields in the long term, with yields in the mid-4% range commensurate with US growth [14]

Geopolitical & Market Confidence - Investors appear to be largely shrugging off geopolitical tensions, with a baseline assumption that conflicts will not escalate significantly [1][2] - Despite potential ceasefire breaks, futures are higher, suggesting investor confidence in the situation remaining stable [1] Equity Strategy - The firm is modestly overweight equities, seeing opportunities more broadly across the asset class [3] - A neutral geographic allocation within equities is favored, indicating no strong conviction in a particular region or country [4][5] US Market Focus - With the Federal Reserve potentially easing and geopolitical tensions lessening, the US market remains a key area of focus [6] - Cyclical sectors like financials or industrials are attractive investment areas, potentially leading the market [7] US Small Cap Opportunities - US small caps are being considered, especially if sustained US economic growth holds up despite tariffs [8][9] - Small caps offer diversified access to US growth, excluding the mega-cap tech exposure prevalent in the S&P 500 [13][14] - Russell 2000 futures are up over 1%, outperforming NASDAQ [11]