US Oil Supply and Demand
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美国原油供需数据摘要-Oil Data Digest-US Oil Supply and Demand
2026-01-14 05:05
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **US Oil Industry**, specifically discussing crude oil production, supply, demand, and refinery operations. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Record Crude Production**: US crude production reached a record of **13.87 million barrels per day (mb/d)** in October, primarily driven by gains in the US Gulf region, despite a stall in shale production growth [2][3][4]. 2. **Shale Production Trends**: Shale production saw a slight decline of **10 kb/d month-over-month (MoM)** in October, with New Mexico's output increasing by approximately **30 kb/d**, while Texas experienced a decline of **45 kb/d** [5][6]. 3. **Rig Count Decline**: The US oil rig count decreased by **6 rigs** in October, with significant losses in the Eagle Ford basin [8][12]. 4. **Fracking Activity Increase**: Frac activity rose sharply in October, with **1,261 frac jobs** initiated, marking a **21% increase** from September [13]. 5. **Gulf of Mexico Production Growth**: Offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico increased by **45 kb/d** MoM, reaching **2.0 mb/d**, supported by new projects like the Leon-Castille field [14][17]. 6. **Crude Imports and Exports**: Crude imports fell sharply by **500 kb/d** MoM to **5.9 mb/d**, while exports decreased by **140 kb/d** but were still up **9% year-over-year (YoY)** [24][26][29]. 7. **Refinery Runs Decline**: US refinery runs dropped by **940 kb/d** MoM to **15.53 mb/d**, attributed to seasonal maintenance and unplanned outages [35][40]. 8. **Oil Demand Contraction**: Total US oil demand contracted by **2% YoY** in October, ending four months of growth, with notable declines in gasoline and jet fuel consumption [48][49]. 9. **Finished Products Output**: Refinery output of finished products fell by **3% MoM**, with gasoline being the only product to see an increase in output [91][94]. 10. **Crude Inventory Build**: US crude inventories rose by **15.8 million barrels** in October due to reduced refinery demand, with significant builds in PADD 3, PADD 2, and PADD 5 [136][141]. Additional Important Insights - **Transfers to Crude Oil Supply**: In October, **860 kb/d** of transfers to crude oil supply were recorded, indicating an increase in blending materials used for refinery feedstock [22][23]. - **Impact of Seasonal Factors**: The decline in refinery runs and oil demand was influenced by seasonal factors, including maintenance schedules and the end of the harvest season affecting diesel demand [71][74]. - **Future Outlook**: Weekly EIA data suggests a recovery in refinery runs in November as maintenance concludes, with crude imports also expected to rise [138]. This summary encapsulates the critical developments and trends in the US oil industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting production, demand, and operational challenges faced by the sector.