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高盛:美国电力需求稳健 - 自下而上与自上而下分析
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-29 14:12
Investment Rating - The report indicates a solid outlook for US power demand, with a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9% projected for 1Q2025, compared to a historical average of 1.0% over the past two decades [5]. Core Insights - US power demand growth remains robust despite macroeconomic uncertainties, with both bottom-up and top-down analyses supporting this conclusion [5]. - The average/median year-over-year growth rate for power sales in the US for 1Q2025 is reported at 2.0%/1.8%, adjusted for weather and leap-year effects [5]. - The report highlights that the differences between top-down and bottom-up approaches are primarily due to the sample of power suppliers covered, which represents approximately 25-30% of overall US power sales [9]. Summary by Sections - **Bottom-Up Analysis**: The bottom-up approach shows an average/median growth rate of 2.0%/1.8% for 1Q2025 power sales, adjusted for weather and leap-year effects, based on earnings reports from US power utilities [5]. - **Top-Down Analysis**: The top-down approach indicates a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9% for total US power demand in 1Q2025, significantly higher than the historical average [5]. - **Utility Performance**: Utilities under coverage reported that 1Q demand was mostly in line with their annual guidance, with specific companies like XEL and WEC expecting continued demand growth aligned with their forecasts [9].