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汇川技术_2025 年 5 月通用自动化订单同比保持个位数高增长
2025-06-09 01:42
Summary of Shenzhen Inovance Technology (300124.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenzhen Inovance Technology (300124.SZ) - **Market Cap**: Rmb174,763 million (approximately US$24,273 million) [4] Key Industry Insights - **General Automation Order Growth**: Inovance reported a high single-digit year-over-year growth in general automation orders for May 2025, consistent with April 2025 growth rates [3][4] - **Impact of US Tariffs**: Management indicated that US reciprocal tariffs are affecting customers' capital expenditure and investment tendencies. Despite a 90-day tariff pause, clients are hesitant to place orders, which may signal weaker-than-expected demand in China's factory automation sector [3][4] - **Sector Performance**: - Strong demand observed in the electric vehicle (EV) battery and air conditioning sectors year-to-date - Recent weakness noted in the electronics sector [3] Investment Recommendations - **Preferred Companies**: Analysts recommend focusing on factory automation companies with higher exposure to EV or EV battery sectors, specifically: - Shuanghuan Drive (002472.SZ) - Yiheda (301029.SZ) - Wuxi Lead (300450.SZ) These companies are expected to be less impacted by US tariffs [3] Financial Projections - **Target Price**: Rmb70.00, based on approximately 30x FY25E EPS of Rmb2.32, reflecting ongoing gross profit margin (GPM) pressure due to product mix changes [4][12] - **Expected Returns**: - Expected share price return: 8.0% - Expected dividend yield: 0.7% - Expected total return: 8.7% [4] Risks to Consider - **Downside Risks**: 1. Slower recovery in China's automation demand 2. Weaker-than-expected growth in elevator demand 3. Weaker-than-expected GPM [13] - **Specific Risks for Yiheda**: 1. Lower-than-expected revenue growth, particularly in new energy sectors 2. Weaker GPM due to unfavorable product mix changes 3. Intensifying competition or market share loss [16] Upcoming Events - Yiheda is expected to release its May 2025 order and shipment data soon, which may provide further insights into the impact of US tariffs on different industries in China [3] Conclusion The conference call highlighted the cautious outlook for Shenzhen Inovance Technology amid ongoing tariff uncertainties and sector-specific demand fluctuations. Investors are advised to monitor the performance of related companies and sector trends closely.