April 16, 2025 04:54 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Growth to Soften Meaningfully in Q2-Q3 Key Takeaways Strong 1Q on policy front-loading: Key drivers for 1Q growth have been (1) strong infrastructure capex on front-loaded govt bond issuance; and (2) robust sales of consumer goods in trade-in program. Manufacturing capex also edged up in March, likely reflecting revived tech animal spirit. These help offset the moderating exports on fading front-loading and Fentanyl-related tariffs. That said, defla ...

April 14, 2025 05:59 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Exports Could Slip Below 5%Y in April Key Takeaways Source: China Customs, Morgan Stanley Research Surging exports – not really a surprise… The surprising headline is in line with our view last month that export YoY growth would rebound visibly in Mar, because the soft Jan-Feb reading reflects residual Lunar New Year (LNY) seasonality and the associated drag on labor-intensive exports. Indeed, labor-intensive segments rebounded sharply in Mar on a b ...