各位尊敬的投资者大家上午好我是中信海外策略徐晃红非常感谢各位投资者抽出宝贵的时间来参加我们这个对于稳定币的这样一个电话会那么最近两周呢的确由于美国包括香港中国香港地区对于稳定币的法案都有一定的推进 那虽然稳定币的主要目标是保持和法币的一比一锚定但是一旦碰到市场风险也会出现问题就像这个USDT USDC和贷这种老牌的稳定币那大多数时候是能够维持住锚定的但其他一些面孔就容易脱锚那比如说在2023年3月美国签名银行暴露出风险的时候当时就导致了部分的主流稳定币价格的大幅波动 那再比如这个FRAX和UST这类靠算法维持毛利的稳定币它自身的价格波动就要比传统的稳定币大那历史上也不止一次没能守住和法币一比一的毛利了 但从稳定的这个原理来看我们觉得稳定币基本上可以分成四个大的类型法币挂钩型、加密资产抵押型、算法型和商品抵押型截至到2025年的5月底市场上最主流的还是法币挂钩型稳定币它的总市值占到整个稳定币市场的97%相比之下用加密资产作为抵押的稳定币只占到了2.2%完全依靠算法维持稳定的更少占比只有0.2个百分点 那以实物商品比如说黄金做抵押的就更少了大约只有0.1个百分点我们一个一个的来看首先这个商品抵押的稳定币它就是用真 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities recently released a research report on U.S. Treasury bonds, analyzing the characteristics and behavioral logic of U.S. Treasury investors from the demand side, and forecasting the market supply-demand pattern for the second half of 2025 [1][4]. Investor Structure and Behavior - Global investors currently hold over $26 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, with international and overseas investors holding $8.6 trillion, accounting for 33% of total holdings, making them the largest buyers [3]. - Broad-based mutual funds hold $5 trillion, representing nearly 20% of the total, while the Federal Reserve is projected to hold $3.8 trillion by the end of 2024, accounting for about 15% [3]. - The combined holdings of these three categories consistently exceed 60% [3]. - Other investors include individual investors, commercial banks, state and local governments, pension funds, and insurance companies, ranked by their holding sizes [3]. Motivations and Strategies - The Federal Reserve, as a policy-driven institution, primarily uses medium to long-term bonds, with its buying and selling actions directly linked to balance sheet adjustment goals [3]. - Overseas official institutions' bond purchasing decisions are influenced by factors such as exchange rates, trade balance, and financial stability, often showing a negative correlation with the U.S. dollar index [3]. - Private sector investors tend to engage in carry trades for returns, while U.S. residents exhibit a "buy high, sell low" behavior, dynamically reallocating between stocks and bonds [3]. - Hedge funds prefer basis trading strategies, while commercial banks' bond purchases are significantly affected by loan-to-deposit ratios and maturity structures [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may conclude its balance sheet reduction process by the end of the year and potentially halt its reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings [4]. - Overseas official institutions are expected to have limited motivation to reduce holdings in a weak dollar environment, although the declining attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries as a safe asset poses a significant risk [4]. - Private institutions face pressure from dollar depreciation, which could diminish the yield advantage of U.S. Treasuries if they engage in currency hedging [4]. - U.S. residents are less likely to significantly increase their allocation to U.S. Treasuries due to the relative attractiveness of U.S. equities [4]. - Demand from commercial banks is expected to improve, benefiting from steady deposit growth, a steepening yield curve, and potential loosening of supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) rules [4]. - Pension funds and mutual funds are projected to maintain stable growth in holdings, driven by asset allocation needs and market preference trends [4]. - Huatai's team believes that the U.S. Treasury market will exhibit structurally differentiated demand characteristics in the second half of 2025, with policy adjustments, exchange rate fluctuations, and asset allocation shifts being key variables [4].