Core Points - Indian Prime Minister Modi's visit to China is seen as a sign of improving Sino-Indian relations after a period of tension, but the visit coincides with the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on Indian goods, causing strong discontent in India [1][4] - The U.S. decision to impose tariffs is linked to India's significant increase in oil imports from Russia, which surged from 20,000 tons in 2014 to 31.45 million tons in 2022, making Russia India's largest oil supplier by 2023 [4][9] - The U.S. tariffs may push India closer to China, as analysts suggest that the U.S. needs India's support to counterbalance China's influence in the Asia-Pacific region [10][11] Summary by Sections U.S. Tariff Policy - The U.S. announced a 50% tariff on Indian goods during Modi's visit, which includes an initial 25% tariff and an additional 25% due to India's oil imports from Russia [4] - The Indian government criticized the U.S. for its unfair treatment, noting that China also imports Russian oil in large quantities [4] India's Oil Imports - India's oil imports from Russia increased dramatically from 1% of total imports to 42% in 2022, with imports reaching 50.84 million tons in 2023 [4] - Despite U.S. pressure, Indian private companies continue to import Russian oil at a significant scale, approximately 4.027 million tons annually [4] Sino-Russian Energy Cooperation - China's energy cooperation with Russia is characterized by long-term stability, with oil imports growing from 30 million tons in 2015 to over 100 million tons by 2021, making Russia China's largest oil supplier [7][9] - The contrast between India's short-term speculative imports and China's strategic partnership with Russia highlights the differing approaches to energy security [9] Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. tariffs may lead India to reconsider its geopolitical alliances, potentially moving closer to China, especially if India opts for a neutral stance in the U.S.-China rivalry [10] - Despite historical tensions, India expresses a desire to maintain a comprehensive global partnership with the U.S., indicating a complex balancing act in its foreign policy [11]

It will cost $100,000 more to apply for a H-1B visa under US President Donald Trump’s new plan.It’s a move that puts the already-fraught US-India relations at greater risk as the visa program is used heavily in India, @sankalp_sp explains https://t.co/NOFEV3Wg3P https://t.co/82SvIjPegf ...

Geopolitical & Economic Relations - The US-India relationship has soured, with India potentially aligning with China and Russia [1] - India's increased purchase of Russian oil, now 40% compared to less than 2% before the conflict, is viewed negatively by the US [2][3] - The US considers India's actions as prioritizing cheap oil and profit over geopolitical alignment [3] - The US emphasizes its position as the world's largest consumer with a $30 trillion economy, implying that countries will eventually need to cater to the American market [4] - The US suggests potential tariffs of 50% if India does not support the dollar and align with the US [7] Trade & Manufacturing - Some US companies have shifted manufacturing from China to India [4] - The US expresses concern that India is not opening its market sufficiently [7] Legal & Political - The US believes it has not lost leverage despite a recent court case [5] - The US anticipates the Supreme Court will side with President Trump [6]

Geopolitical Alignment - The report highlights a shift in global alliances, noting the "cozy optics" between China and Russia, traditional adversaries of the US [1] - The analysis points out that China is hosting leaders from North Korea and Iran, described by some as an "axis of upheaval against the West" [2] - India's Prime Minister Modi is also seen engaging with Putin and Xi, a departure from previous close ties with the US [2] US-India Relations - The report mentions that Trump imposed tariffs on India for trade disagreements and continued purchases of Russian oil and gas [3] - Despite these tariffs, Modi has maintained ties with Putin [4] - The report contrasts current interactions with past events, such as the "Howdy Modi" rally in 2019, emphasizing a change in the relationship [3] US-Russia Relations - The report indicates a deterioration of the "special relationship" between Putin and Trump [1] - Trump's earlier claim of being able to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours is contrasted with the ongoing conflict [4] - Putin's visit to Alaska to meet with Trump did not result in an end to the war against Ukraine [4]