President Trump has his sights once again on ending the Ukraine conflict, announcing another meeting with Russian Vladimir Putin after a first summit in Alaska failed to yield progress https://t.co/G2Ydrgz08v ...

Monetary Policy & Framework - The industry observes an odd timing for a major new framework announcement from the Fed, suggesting it should be addressed by the incoming chairman after consultation [1][2] - The industry notes the Fed's past errors leaned towards excessive transparency and forecasting, leading to iatrogenic volatility, and suggests fewer dot plots and forecasts [2][3] - The industry suggests a return to a more vague and oracular approach, similar to Volcker and Greenspan, given the current challenge of preventing high inflation expectations from becoming embedded [4][5] - The industry emphasizes the importance of symmetry with respect to inflation and learning from the previous framework's shortcomings [6] - The industry highlights the need for careful consideration of the management of the maturity structure of the federal debt, especially when the Treasury and the Fed have conflicting objectives [7] Inflation & Interest Rates - The industry acknowledges persistent inflation above the 2% target, yet markets anticipate a Fed rate cut in September [8] - The industry notes evidence of economic weakening is likely driving market expectations for a Fed rate ease [9] - The industry interprets the market's anticipation of a 25 basis point cut in September as a likelihood, with possibilities of 50 basis points or zero being equally likely [10] - The industry cautions against certainty about future actions, as data could push towards a 50 basis point cut or further delay [11] Economic & Geopolitical Considerations - The industry expresses surprise at the Treasury Secretary's prescriptive stance on monetary policy, suggesting a 175 basis point cut [12][13] - The industry suggests elevated deficit spending, data center spending, reduced trade deficits, and higher asset prices may be raising the net demand for funds, potentially increasing neutral interest rates [15] - The industry expresses disappointment that President Trump hasn't leveraged frozen Russian reserves to drive a just peace with Ukraine [17][18]

Geopolitical Risk & National Security - Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard posted a video warning of a potential nuclear holocaust, blaming political elites for escalating tensions between nuclear powers [1][2] - The video includes imagery of atomic blasts and simulations of the destruction of American cities [1] - Gabbard's message aligns with Russian talking points, suggesting the West is provoking Russia and risking atomic conflict by punishing it for the invasion of Ukraine [4] - Concerns are raised about whether Gabbard's views reflect the official stance of the US government or President Trump [8] - The video reached 35 million followers, raising questions about the appropriate use of the DNI's time and resources [5] Political & Public Reaction - Gabbard is facing criticism from Republicans and those typically supportive of the Trump administration [5] - Senator John Kennedy suggested Gabbard should "change her meds" in response to the video [4] - The video is described as "weird," "ominous," and "bizarre" [5][9] - Questions are raised about whether Gabbard consulted with President Trump before releasing the video [10] Competence & Administration Concerns - The incident is viewed as part of a broader pattern of "incompetence" within the administration [12] - The appointment of individuals like Gabbard and Robert F Kennedy Jr is questioned [9][11]