Geopolitical Analysis of US-Russia Relations - The meeting between President Trump and President Putin is seen as a victory for Putin, regardless of the outcome, due to his status as an indicted war criminal meeting with the US President on US soil [2][3][4] - Concerns exist that Trump may pursue a deal that involves swapping or seeding Ukrainian territory, which would reward imperialism and set a dangerous precedent for international security [4][7] - Russia's goals in Ukraine include annexing four regions in addition to Crimea, establishing a subservient government in Kyiv, preventing NATO membership for Ukraine, and weakening the country's military capabilities [38][39] - Ukraine's stated goal is to restore its 1991 borders, including the four eastern regions and Crimea, but realistically, a deal might involve Ukraine agreeing to reunify the country only through peaceful means in exchange for security guarantees, ideally NATO membership [39][40][41][42] - NATO membership for Ukraine could freeze the borders and deter further Russian aggression, similar to the situation in divided Germany during the Cold War [42][43] Negotiation Dynamics and Potential Outcomes - Putin is a seasoned negotiator with extensive experience and knowledge, potentially giving him an advantage over Trump, who may lack detailed knowledge of the history and complexities of the conflict [15][16][17][18] - Putin may exploit Trump's desire to be seen as a dealmaker by offering economic incentives or concessions on other issues, such as arms control, to gain Trump's favor and potentially constrain Ukraine [21][30][37] - The presence of economic advisors in the Russian delegation suggests that Russia is aiming for a broader discussion of US-Russia relations and economic cooperation, potentially appealing to Trump's business-oriented mindset [22][23] - A one-on-one meeting between Trump and Putin without notetakers or advisors is considered risky, as it could lead to disagreements about what was agreed upon and potentially result in a summit like Helsinki, which was widely criticized [19][47][49][50][53] - The lack of pre-negotiated deliverables for the summit is unusual, as presidential time is a valuable commodity that should be used strategically to achieve specific outcomes [56][57][59][60] Potential Risks and Concerns - The US's inconsistent stance on the war in Ukraine, particularly Trump's signaling of a potential pullback in military assistance, could embolden Putin and prolong the conflict [10][11] - There is concern that Trump may be tempted to make a deal that benefits Russia at the expense of Ukraine and international security, driven by his desire to be seen as a successful dealmaker [34][37] - Putin's tactics in meetings include being late, talking at length, staring intensely, and avoiding the need to cut a deal quickly, which can be advantageous in negotiations [24][25][26][29]

As US President Donald Trump looks to secure an end to the war in Ukraine, he'll have to bridge the stark differences between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskiy arising from the Russian leader's claims on Ukrainian territory. Here's what to know. https://t.co/cbbws9LgtV ...

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said this week’s US-Russian summit may open the door to negotiations about Ukrainian territory https://t.co/wWFquzu4ts ...