Valuation Recovery

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提高土地投资效率以提升利润率 净资产收益率并支持进一步的估值恢复
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-30 02:45
Investment Rating - The report reiterates a Buy rating on CRL, COLI, Greentown, Jinmao, and Longfor, while maintaining a Neutral rating on Poly and CMSK [2][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights improving land investment efficiency among developers, with 86% of land bank investments concentrated in the Top 10 cities, indicating a strategic shift towards better-performing markets [1][28]. - The analysis suggests that new acquisitions by six key developers are expected to yield gross profit margins (GPM) in the mid-teen% to over 20%, an improvement from below teen% levels for land acquired before 2024 [1][35]. - The average return on equity (ROE) from these new acquisitions is projected to be around 8%, aligning with historical trends and supporting a valuation recovery [1][35][43]. Summary by Sections Best Performing Cities - The Top 10 cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, have shown resilient pricing trends and signs of price stabilization in both primary and secondary markets [5][6]. - Home sales volume in these cities has indicated a year-on-year recovery trend, with a 36%/2% decline compared to the peak month in 2021 and the monthly average in 2024 [10][12]. Margin & ROE Improvement - The report notes that the concentration of land investment in the Top 10 cities has increased significantly, with these cities accounting for 86% of new land investments since 2024, compared to about half from 2018-2023 [28][29]. - The expected GPM for new acquisitions is projected to reach an average of 14% for 2026E-2027E, compared to an average of 13% in 2024 [35][37]. Upward Revisions - The report revises the 2026E/27E GPM for the six developers by an average of 0.2pt/0.7pt and their target prices by 1-5%, reflecting a more positive outlook on price trends and land acquisitions [2][37]. - The earnings estimates for 2025E-27E are projected to be approximately 10% above consensus, driven by higher topline and margin expectations [40][41].