humidifi processes $1-2b daily through jupiter with $10m tvl. that's 200x capital efficiency or the greatest wash trading operation on solana. $wet launches dec 3rd and $jup stakers get priority access at discount. you're buying into a protocol that already routes 90% of its volume through the same platform giving you the allocation. tokenomics inception ...

Core Insights - A significant portion of Polymarket's trading activity is reportedly fabricated, with nearly 25% of its volume over the past three years identified as wash trading according to Columbia University researchers [2][4]. Trading Activity Analysis - The study indicates that approximately 14% of the 1.26 million wallets that have engaged in trading on Polymarket were flagged for suspicious activity, suggesting a pattern of repeated buying and selling without actual market position changes [3]. - Wash trading volume on Polymarket reached a peak of 60% of total trading volume in December 2024, subsequently dropping to less than 5% in May, before rebounding to around 20% last month [4]. Market-Specific Findings - The research highlights that sports markets on Polymarket are particularly affected by wash trading, with 45% of historical volume flagged, peaking at 90% during the week starting October 21, 2024 [5]. - In contrast, only 17% of the total volume in Polymarket's election markets is estimated to be wash trading, although this figure spiked to 95% during the week beginning March 25 [6]. Platform Vulnerabilities - The researchers noted that Polymarket's structure, including the absence of transaction fees and the pseudonymous nature of blockchain technology, makes it especially vulnerable to wash trading activities [4]. - The motivation behind the wash trading is speculated to be users attempting to exploit the platform's planned airdrop, which was confirmed by Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer [6][7].

Market Manipulation Concerns - A Columbia University study indicates that up to 60% of Polymarket's trading volume might be attributed to wash trading [1] - The study raises concerns about the presence of artificial activity within prediction markets [1]

Market Analysis - Columbia University study suggests that a quarter (25%) of Polymarket's trading volume may be wash trading [1]

Market Manipulation - Polymarket's activity volume has been significantly inflated by wash trading [1] - Wash trading involves users rapidly buying and selling the same contracts [1] Research Findings - Columbia University researchers conducted a new study on Polymarket's trading activity [1]

Core Insights - Coinbase is evolving from a traditional crypto exchange into a comprehensive ecosystem that supports the industry's core infrastructure by 2025 [1] - Despite a pro-regulation stance that may have affected its market ranking, Coinbase remains a significant player in the crypto space, generating over $2.4 billion in 24-hour trading volume as of October 25, which is approximately 10 times less than Binance and Gate [2] - Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Coinbase's Q3 2025 earnings, expecting a year-on-year revenue growth of 44% to over $1.76 billion and a net income increase of 150% to over $400 million [5] Company Performance - Coinbase's trading volume is significantly lower than competitors, but its compliance efforts help mitigate risks associated with wash trading, which has hindered the approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs [2] - The company has expanded its offerings to include popular Solana meme coins, reflecting the growing demand for diverse crypto services [3] - The upcoming Q3 2025 earnings report is highly anticipated, especially following the recent earnings releases from major tech companies [4] Market Dynamics - Rising cryptocurrency prices are expected to drive trading revenue, alongside income from subscriptions and institutional services like staking and custody [6] - Monthly transacting users (MTUs) are projected to exceed 8.5 million, indicating a potential revival in retail trading activity [6] - In Q2 2025, Coinbase's MTUs fell short of estimates by 10%, suggesting that a rebound in Q3 could signal improved market conditions [7]

Core Insights - Decentralised exchanges (DEXs) offering perpetual trading are rapidly gaining traction in the crypto industry, with Hyperliquid reporting $2.8 trillion in perpetual trade volume since its launch about a year ago [1] - Aster, a competitor, reportedly surpassed Hyperliquid in daily trading volume in September, but its perpetual volume was delisted by DefiLlama due to concerns over potential wash trading [1][2] Trading Volume and Market Manipulation - Aster claims to have very high perpetual trading volumes, around $100 billion, which raises suspicions about the authenticity of this data [2] - Wash trading, a form of market manipulation where traders trade with themselves to create a false impression of activity, is a concern in decentralised trading venues [3] Data Verification Challenges - DefiLlama highlighted that while some exchanges like GMX and Raydium allow for transaction verification, Aster does not provide the necessary software for running a node, complicating the verification process [4] - The reliance on Aster's API for data is seen as problematic, as it does not meet the verification standards expected in the crypto industry [6] Industry Reactions - The decision by DefiLlama to delist Aster's perpetual volume has received mixed reactions, with some supporters claiming the volume was fake from the start, although proving wash trading requires more data from Aster [7] - Aster's recent rise in the market was aided by a redesigned airdrop campaign and backing from YZi Labs, led by Changpeng Zhao, former CEO of Binance [5]

Core Insights - DeFiLlama has removed Aster's perpetual futures volume data due to concerns over data integrity after detecting trading volumes closely mirroring those of Binance [1][2][3] Volume Correlation - Aster's trading volumes for pairs like XRP/USDT showed a correlation ratio of approximately 1 with Binance, while competitor Hyperliquid displayed decorrelation [2] - Correlation patterns were even more pronounced for other assets like ETH, indicating similar trends across all trading pairs [3] Community Reactions - The delisting has caused a split in the crypto community, with critics questioning DeFiLlama's centralization and defenders attributing the correlation to legitimate liquidity migration from Binance [4] - Blockchain investigator ZachXBT criticized Anndy Lian for normalizing wash trading, while Lian defended the practice as common in the industry [5] Trading Volume Data - Aster's total trading volume has exceeded $2.2 trillion, with a total value locked of $1.52 billion, 3.18 million total users, and $328.28 million in all-time income [7]

Market Performance - Aster's token price decreased by 10% [1] Risk Analysis - DefiLlama head raised concerns about wash trading [1] - DefiLlama delisted perpetuals data related to Aster's token [1]

Volume to Open Interest Ratio Analysis - Aster's volume to open interest ratio is 40:1, which is 6250% higher than Hyperliquid's 064:1 [1] - Binance's volume to open interest ratio is 3:1 on high volatility days [1] - Even FTX, with known wash trading, never exceeded a 15:1 volume to open interest ratio [1] Airdrop and Bot Activity - A $640 million airdrop allocation is being farmed by bots recycling the same capital [1] Market Interpretation - Hyperliquid's metrics suggest real positions, implying genuine market activity [1]