Centene (NYSE:CNC) FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Centene Corporation - **Event**: Barclays Global Healthcare Conference - **Date**: March 10, 2026 Key Points Current Business Performance - Centene reaffirms adjusted EPS guidance of greater than $3 for 2026, with all three core business lines (Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace) on track so far [4][8] - Medicaid membership is expected to be approximately 3.5 million by the end of Q1 2026, down from 5.5 million in December 2025 [5][10] - The company is optimistic about the execution of ongoing trend initiatives impacting Medicaid and Medicare [4][8] Marketplace Dynamics - Membership in the Marketplace has decreased from 5.5 million in December to 3.6 million in February 2026, with expectations of reaching around 3.5 million by the end of the quarter [5][10] - The distribution of metal tiers shows a shift, with mid-30s% in Bronze, high teens% in Gold, and just under 50% in Silver [6][11] - Higher utilization patterns in specialty pharmacy are noted, particularly in the Silver tier, which may impact risk adjustment calculations [6][17] Risk Adjustment and Data Insights - Centene is tracking a Wakely report due at the end of March, which will provide insights into market contraction and membership distribution across metal tiers [7][13] - The company anticipates being in a net payable position for risk adjustment in 2026, but will remain conservative until full data is available [13][16] - The focus is on understanding therapeutic classes and disease states to inform risk adjustment strategies [17][18] Medicaid Trends and Initiatives - Medicaid cost trend for 2026 is expected to be around 4.5%, down from mid-6% in 2025 [19][20] - Centene is actively working on initiatives to combat fraud, waste, and abuse, which is estimated to account for 10% of all healthcare spending [22][23] - The company has developed 75 algorithms to identify suspect claims and is enhancing data sharing with state partners to improve program integrity [22][25] Medicare and Part D Insights - The individual PDP industry growth is expected to accelerate from 1% in 2025 to close to 3% in 2026, with Centene taking market share [31] - The company aims for a Part D margin of around 2% for 2026, with a focus on maintaining a favorable cost structure [32][33] - Medicare Advantage margins are projected to be slightly below break-even in 2026, with a goal of achieving break-even by 2027 [35][36] Capital Deployment Strategy - Centene plans no share repurchase in 2026, focusing instead on a partial redemption of $1 billion of 2027 notes to recalibrate debt levels [39][40] - The company is exploring ways to generate cash and monetize assets as part of its capital deployment strategy [40] Future Outlook on Medicaid Policy - Membership levels in Medicaid are expected to decline slightly due to tighter eligibility verification processes [41][42] - The impact of OB3 and work requirements will be assessed on a state-by-state basis, with guidance from CMS expected to influence future membership and margins [44][46] Additional Insights - The dialogue with CMS regarding Medicare rates has focused on ensuring that trend assumptions are reflective of current realities, particularly in light of COVID-19 data [36][37] - Centene is preparing for potential shifts in risk pools due to changes in Medicaid rates and eligibility requirements [46] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the conference, highlighting Centene's performance, market dynamics, and future outlook in the healthcare sector.

All right, Nick, I thought a great place to start is uh you're known as like the guy who exposed this fraud at this point. It feels like the fraud is both way worse than we thought and also crazier in terms of what people are doing to actually go and do this fraud. How bad do you think it is at the national level.Nationally, it's really bad. It's in all 50 states, but let's just take Minnesota for example. You have an entire network of fraudsters who have there's uh over 10 categories of fraud within just t ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Criticism of Jay Powell's leadership at the Federal Reserve, with claims of undermining Fed independence and poor monetary decisions [2][4] - Discussion on the need for interest rate cuts, suggesting they should be two points lower than current levels [2] - Allegations of excessive spending on a construction project related to the Federal Reserve, estimated to cost nearly $4 billion, raising questions of corruption or incompetence [4][7] Group 2: Waste, Fraud, and Abuse - Emphasis on the political significance of addressing waste, fraud, and abuse, particularly in relation to government spending [8][9] - Mention of potential savings from identifying waste, with estimates of $200 billion to $600 billion in waste, fraud, and abuse [9] - Specific examples of alleged fraud in Minnesota, with claims of at least $19 billion in medical fraud [15][16] Group 3: Employment and Federal Workforce - Discussion on the impact of federal job cuts on employment numbers, suggesting that cuts have led to better employment outcomes in the private sector [13][14] - Assertion that hiring practices should focus on the private sector rather than increasing federal employment [14]

Last year, I lived in a cabin in the Pacific Northwest, just outside of Seattle. Every morning, I woke up watching the sunrise over the Cascade Mountain Range. My main source of entertainment was what was happening outside the cabin. an eagle flying over the water, divebombing into the water to get that fish and effortlessly flying away. I developed a deep reverence in the 15 years I was at the cabin for nature and it's where I started my business and started studying the how nature operated and applied it ...

One of the things that that is coming to California is an investigation into waste, fraud and abuse. The Trump administration clearly had some success with that. In Minnesota, Governor Tim Walz is not running for re-election.And now they've promised that the investigation into California has begun. Yeah, what will they find and what what is at stake. Well, they'll find a state that's taking the issue very, very seriously. They'll find a state that years and years ago established the first framework, somethi ...

It takes aeons to claw up the edge of the sticky tape. When at last you manage it, the snippet coils up annoyingly before you can smooth it onto the wrapping paper. Is it worth the waste and bother? https://t.co/daZBfLF1ln ...

It takes aeons to claw up the edge of the sticky tape. When at last you manage it, the snippet coils up annoyingly before you can smooth it onto the wrapping paper. Is it worth the waste and bother? https://t.co/VKRyPO5ruk ...

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Business Model & Opportunity - The company aims to build a private sector "Department of Government Efficiency" to tackle government waste, fraud, and abuse [1] - The core business model is "Snitching as a Service," where the company identifies fraud against the government and receives 10-30% of recovered funds [2][4] - The Government Accountability Office estimates $500 billion (7% of the federal budget) is lost to fraud annually, representing a significant market opportunity [1] - The company believes the profit motive and free markets are effective ways to address these issues [1] Technology & Approach - The company combines investigative journalism with AI, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), to analyze open-source intelligence and unstructured data [1][9] - LLMs are crucial for processing unstructured text data in government contracts, regulations, and laws [9] - Open-source intelligence techniques, including computer vision, are used to expedite data analysis [7] Target Verticals & Focus - The initial focus is on healthcare, which accounts for 20% of GDP [10] - Future expansion is planned for defense and education sectors [11] - The company aims to address overbilling and anti-competitive practices, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry [10][11] Competitive Advantage & Team - The company differentiates itself from SaaS companies by being paid only upon delivering measurable results in dollars [4] - The team has experience in antitrust violations and recoveries from big pharma companies [24] Journalism & Transparency - The company plans to inform the government first, but intends to publicize findings when possible [21] - The company views its model as a better business model for investigative journalism, addressing the decline of traditional newspaper funding [21][22] Risks & Challenges - The primary risk is potential failure to execute the business plan as envisioned [24]

Fiscal Policy & Debt - The administration aims to restore fiscal sanity due to a \$37 trillion debt [2] - The federal government is currently shut down, resulting in no incoming revenue [2] - Democrats have presented the administration with the "unenviable choice" of making cuts and layoffs [3] Workforce Reduction - Layoffs are deemed necessary to maintain essential services, a departure from previous shutdowns [1] - The president views the layoffs as an "unprecedented opportunity," while others see it as an "unfortunate consequence" [4] - The administration denies taking joy in laying off workers [5] Administration Stance - The administration is focused on addressing waste, fraud, and abuse [3] - The president "likes to have a little fun every now and then" regarding the layoffs [4]