Core Viewpoint - NIKE Inc. is expected to report declines in both revenue and earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, with projected revenues of $11 billion, reflecting a 5% year-over-year decrease, and earnings per share (EPS) of 28 cents, indicating a 60% decline from the previous year [1][2][9] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal first-quarter revenues is $11 billion, suggesting a 5% decline from the prior year's figure [2] - The estimated EPS for the fiscal first quarter is 28 cents, indicating a significant 60% drop compared to the year-ago number [2] - In the last reported quarter, NIKE achieved an earnings surprise of 16.7%, beating the consensus estimate by an average of 42% over the trailing four quarters [3] Strategic Initiatives - NIKE is implementing its "Win Now" strategy, aimed at restoring brand momentum and positioning for sustainable growth after previous underperformance [5] - The company is focusing on leadership changes, product portfolio rebalancing, and enhancing marketing efforts through major sports events [6] - NIKE is prioritizing sports performance and product innovation, with new offerings like Pegasus Premium and Vomero 18, to cater to evolving consumer preferences [8] Market Positioning - NIKE is strengthening its wholesale partnerships and optimizing its supply chain, which is expected to cushion the bottom line in the upcoming quarter [7] - The company is revitalizing its digital and retail strategy by reducing promotions and improving premium brand positioning [10] Challenges - NIKE faces significant near-term challenges, including aggressive reductions in aging footwear franchises, a reset in China, and new U.S. tariffs that add a $1 billion structural cost burden [11][12] - Management anticipates a mid-single-digit revenue decline and a gross margin contraction of 350-425 basis points, with a notable impact from tariffs [13] - SG&A expenses are projected to increase, which may prolong profitability headwinds without a swift rebound in revenue growth [14] Stock Performance - NIKE shares have risen 13.9% over the past three months, outperforming the broader Consumer Discretionary sector and the S&P 500 [15] - However, NIKE's performance lags behind competitors like Wolverine World Wide and Steven Madden, which have seen significant stock price increases [16] Valuation - At a current price of $71.22, NIKE trades at a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 36.13X, which is above the industry average of 29.83X and the S&P 500's average of 23.44X [18] Long-term Outlook - NIKE's strategic initiatives are expected to build a strong foundation for long-term growth, focusing on innovation and improved consumer engagement [21] - While these efforts may create long-term value, short-term revenue challenges are anticipated due to weak demand in lifestyle products and ongoing issues in Greater China [23][25] - The company's long-term strategies aim to enhance brand equity and capture evolving consumer demand, despite the current financial pressures [24]

Core Insights - NIKE Inc. reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results with revenues of $11.1 billion, a 12% decline year over year, but exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.69 billion [3][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) were 14 cents, down 86% from the previous year, yet above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 12 cents [2][8] - The company's shares rose 2.8% following the results, although they have lost 1.2% over the past three months compared to a 0.1% gain in the industry [4] Revenue Breakdown - NIKE Brand revenues were $10.8 billion, down 11% year over year, affected by declines across all geographies [5] - In North America, revenues fell 11% to $4.7 billion, with NIKE Direct sales down 14% [6] - EMEA revenues decreased 9% to $3 billion, while Greater China saw a 21% drop to $1.5 billion [10][11] - APLA revenues fell 8% to $1.6 billion, with NIKE Direct dipping 1% [12] Cost and Margin Analysis - Gross profit declined 21% to $4.5 billion, with gross margin contracting 440 basis points to 40.3% due to increased discounts and supply chain issues [13] - Selling and administrative expenses rose 1% to $4.1 billion, with SG&A as a percentage of sales increasing 500 basis points to 37.4% [14] - Demand creation expenses increased 15% to $1.3 billion, while operating overhead expenses decreased 3% to $2.9 billion [15] Balance Sheet and Shareholder Returns - NIKE ended fiscal 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $7.5 billion, down nearly 24% year over year [16] - The company returned $0.8 billion to shareholders in the fourth quarter, including $202 million in share repurchases and $591 million in dividends [18] Forward Guidance - For fiscal 2026, NIKE expects mid-single-digit revenue decline in Q1 and gross margin contraction of 350-425 basis points [24] - SG&A expenses are projected to increase by low single digits as the company invests in growth initiatives [22] - The company anticipates challenges in digital traffic and classic footwear franchises but sees potential in new product franchises [21][20]

Core Viewpoint - NIKE Inc. is expected to report declines in both revenue and earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with significant challenges in lifestyle product sales and digital revenues [1][4][8]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter revenues is $10.7 billion, reflecting a 15.4% decline year-over-year [2]. - The earnings estimate for the fourth quarter is 11 cents per share, indicating an 89.1% decrease from the previous year [2]. - Earnings estimates have remained unchanged over the last 30 days [2]. Market Challenges - NIKE faces ongoing challenges such as weak lifestyle product sales, sluggish digital revenues, and headwinds in Greater China and certain EMEA markets [4][8]. - The lifestyle segment, particularly in digital channels, has been struggling due to macroeconomic factors like inflation and rising interest rates [5]. - There are notable declines in consumer traffic in Greater China, with lower sell-through rates and reduced brick-and-mortar traffic [5]. Financial Outlook - For the fourth quarter, NIKE anticipates a revenue decline in the mid-teens, primarily due to North American shipment timing and foreign exchange headwinds [7]. - Gross margin is projected to decrease by 400-500 basis points, while SG&A expenses are expected to rise in the low to mid-single digits [7][9]. Strategic Initiatives - NIKE is focusing on strategic pricing and supply-chain optimization to cushion the bottom line [10]. - The company is prioritizing sports performance and product innovation to enhance brand appeal, with new product launches expected to support fiscal fourth-quarter performance [11]. - NIKE is revitalizing its digital and retail strategy by reducing promotions and improving premium brand positioning [12]. Stock Performance and Valuation - NIKE shares have decreased by 38.5% over the past year, underperforming the broader Consumer Discretionary sector and the S&P 500 [13][14]. - The current stock price of $59.79 is 39% below its 52-week high of $98.04, and it trades at a forward P/E multiple of 30.81X, above the industry average of 24.3X [18]. Long-term Growth Narrative - NIKE's strategic initiatives are aimed at building a strong foundation for long-term growth by enhancing its competitive position and deepening consumer engagement [20]. - The company is adapting to market shifts while maintaining leadership in sports and lifestyle apparel, although short-term revenue challenges are anticipated [21][22].