Core Insights - Taxpayers often experience confusion or frustration when their tax refunds are smaller than expected or absent, despite little change in income [1] Group 1: Common Refund Surprises - Expecting a refund every year is the most common surprise, as refunds are based on mathematical calculations rather than past experiences [2] - Changing jobs frequently leads to refund surprises due to potential mistakes in completing withholding forms, which can alter tax withholdings without immediate visibility [4] - Earning more money does not guarantee a larger refund; higher income can push taxpayers into a new tax bracket, resulting in a smaller refund or unexpected tax liabilities [5]