Core Viewpoint - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is expected to report third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on September 29, 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) estimated at $1.31, reflecting a 3.2% increase from the previous year [1][8]. Financial Performance - The consensus estimate for fiscal third-quarter revenues is $8.1 billion, indicating a 2% growth year-over-year [5]. - CCL has a strong earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 169.9% [5][10]. Earnings Estimates - The current EPS estimate for Q3 is $1.31, with a 60-day unchanged consensus [2]. - The expected passenger ticket revenues are projected to rise 0.2% year-over-year to $5.25 billion, while onboard and other revenues are anticipated to increase by 2.3% to $2.71 billion [12]. Market Dynamics - European demand, premium pricing, and the launch of Celebration Key are expected to positively influence Q3 results [10][13]. - The company has seen strong booking momentum and robust onboard spending, contributing to revenue growth [11]. Cost Considerations - Total operating expenses are expected to rise by 1.5% year-over-year to $5.8 billion, driven by increased cruise costs excluding fuel [15]. - Management has indicated a 7% year-over-year increase in cruise costs, influenced by start-up expenses for Celebration Key and higher advertising costs [15]. Stock Performance - CCL shares have increased by 20.5% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry growth of 11.2% [16]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E multiple of 13.64X, below the industry average of 18.77X, indicating a potential investment opportunity [19]. Strategic Initiatives - Carnival's strong demand trends support raised 2025 yield guidance, with record customer deposits and high pricing [21]. - The launch of Celebration Key and fleet enhancements are expected to drive incremental revenue and improve guest experiences [22]. Investment Outlook - Carnival is well-positioned for the upcoming fiscal third-quarter earnings, supported by resilient demand and sustained strength in pricing and onboard revenue [23]. - The company's discounted valuation relative to peers and leadership in the global cruise industry present a compelling opportunity for long-term investors [25].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, total revenue increased by 18.5% year over year to $1.9 billion, driven by an 8.8% capacity growth and higher occupancy [18][21] - Adjusted gross margin rose by 19.2% year over year to $1.2 billion, resulting in a net yield of $607, which is 7.8% higher than in 2024 [20][21] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $633 million, a 28.5% increase compared to the same period last year [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the river segment, capacity PCDs increased by 7.5% year over year, with occupancy at 95.6% and adjusted gross margin growing by 15.8% [24] - For the ocean segment, capacity PCDs increased by 11.2% year over year, with occupancy at 95.2% and adjusted gross margin rising by 24.9% [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - As of August 10, 2025, 96% of the 2025 capacity for core products was booked, with advanced bookings of $5.6 billion, 21% higher than the previous year [29][30] - For 2026, 55% of capacity was already booked, with advanced bookings at $3.9 billion, a 13% increase compared to the same point in 2025 [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its fleet and strengthening its global presence, with new ships added to both river and ocean segments [8][9] - The strategy emphasizes selective expansion into culturally rich regions, such as India and Egypt, to enhance guest experiences [13][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted sustained strength in demand, with a strong start for 2026 bookings, reflecting consumer engagement [41] - The company is committed to optimizing its cost structure while investing in teams and marketing to support future growth [20][43] Other Important Information - The company completed a secondary offering of 30.5 million shares at $44.2 per share, increasing institutional float and diversifying the shareholder base [10][16] - As of June 30, 2025, total cash and cash equivalents were $2.6 billion, with net debt at $3.2 billion and net leverage at 2.1 times [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you walk us through booking progress for 2026? - Management reported strong demand with 55% of 2026 bookings sold, indicating consistent consumer behavior [40] Question: Is the increase in marketing spend broad-based? - The increase in marketing spend was a strategic response to softening demand, aimed at stimulating interest without discounting [43] Question: How do you see pricing optimization for 2026? - Management indicated a careful balance in pricing strategy, aiming for mid-single-digit yield growth while ensuring good value for guests [50][51] Question: What are the expectations for expense growth? - Management noted that quarterly variances in expenses are expected, but overall revenue growth has outpaced expense growth [67] Question: How does capacity growth impact pricing growth? - Management clarified that growth in ocean capacity does not negatively impact pricing, as demand remains strong [82] Question: What is the outlook for capital returns to shareholders? - Currently, the company is not contemplating dividends or share buybacks but remains open to capital returns in the long term [77][106]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Companywide revenue for Q1 2025 was $2 billion, down 3% year over year but up 2% sequentially from Q4 2024 [16] - Adjusted EBITDA was $278 million, down 3% year over year [20] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.73, exceeding expectations [4] - Net income grew by 3% to $69 million, representing diluted EPS of $0.58 [21] - Cash flow from operating activities was $142 million, with net CapEx of $191 million [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - LTL segment revenue was down 4% year over year and up 1% sequentially, with adjusted EBITDA of $250 million, down 2% [16][20] - Yield excluding fuel grew by 6.9% year over year, reflecting strong commercial strategy [9] - Purchase transportation costs decreased by 53% year over year, equating to a reduction of $41 million in the quarter [17][20] - Adjusted operating ratio improved by 30 basis points to 85.9% [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total shipments per day in the LTL segment were down 5.8% year over year, with tonnage per day down 7.5% [24] - In Europe, revenue increased by 2% year over year on a constant currency basis, with adjusted EBITDA growing by 19% sequentially [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining high service quality and expanding its local channel, aiming for local accounts to represent 30% of total revenue [75] - Investments in proprietary AI technology are being made to enhance profitability through line haul optimization and labor planning [12][13] - The company is committed to cost efficiency and margin expansion, with a focus on insourcing line haul to improve operational flexibility [11][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects to deliver 150 basis points of margin improvement for the full year, despite a negative tonnage outlook [35][46] - The company is optimistic about future demand recovery, citing a lack of meaningful capacity additions in the industry [55] - Management noted that the pricing environment remains constructive, with strong yield growth expected to continue [60] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $212 million in cash and $811 million in total liquidity [22] - A share repurchase authorization of up to $750 million was announced, with plans to begin opportunistic repurchases [23][88] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on full year guidance and second quarter expectations - Management expects to deliver 150 basis points of margin improvement despite a negative tonnage outlook, with strong yield performance and effective cost management [35][36][40] Question: Volume dynamics and potential share loss - Industry volumes have declined by approximately 15% to 16% since the peak in 2021, driven by softer demand, particularly in the industrial sector [48][49] Question: Pricing environment and competitive threats - The pricing environment remains constructive, with mid to high single-digit increases in contractual renewals [91] - Management does not see significant threats from competitors like UPS and Amazon, as their business models differ significantly from LTL [93][96]