Yield Trap
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This Industrial Stock Pays a 6.6% Dividend Yield (and It's Safe)
The Motley Fool· 2026-01-05 00:36
Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) has shown signs of recovery, making it an attractive investment opportunity despite concerns about its high dividend yield potentially being a yield trap [2][4]. Financial Performance - UPS experienced record highs in sales and profitability during the early pandemic e-commerce boom, but has since faced challenges such as higher labor costs, softening demand, and tariffs impacting its financial performance [4]. - The company has increased its dividend modestly, resulting in a current ultra-high forward dividend yield of 6.6% [4]. - The dividend payout ratio stands at 87%, but recent developments suggest that the dividend is secure [5]. Stock Performance - As of the latest data, UPS shares are priced at $101.02, with a market capitalization of $86 billion and a gross margin of 18.48% [7]. - The stock has been trending higher since October, following better-than-expected Q3 2025 results [7][8]. Future Outlook - UPS is focusing on cost-cutting measures and shifting towards higher-margin customers in sectors like healthcare [8]. - Wall Street analysts project a conservative earnings growth of 4% for the next year, but there is potential for the stock to rally if UPS continues to exceed expectations [8][9]. - The stock may also experience a rerating as investors could be willing to pay more, aligning its valuation closer to competitor FedEx's forward P/E of 16 [9].
The Mistake Most Investors Make When Buying REITs
The Smart Investor· 2025-11-26 09:30
Core Insights - REITs in Singapore are popular for their steady payouts and attractive yields, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, but investors often make the mistake of chasing yields without understanding the associated risks [1][2] Group 1: Yield Analysis - The average dividend yield of Singapore REITs (S-REITs) was 6.2% as of September 30, 2025, which is higher than traditional bank deposits or government bonds, making them appealing to income-seeking investors [2] - EC World REIT reported an annualised distribution yield of approximately 13.1% for 2022 and 10.7% for 2023, despite facing refinancing issues [3] - Prime US REIT's annualised distribution yield was 10.5% in 1H2022, but it surged to 23.6% a year later, with management cutting cash payouts by over 90% in 2H2023 to retain cash within the REIT [4] Group 2: Risks of High Yields - High yields can indicate underlying issues, as seen in the second quarter of 2025 when 20 out of 38 S-REITs yielded above 7% while the average gearing ratio was 40% [5] - Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust's annualised yield of 9.2% in FY2016 diminished over time, leading to minimal payouts by 2023 due to high interest rates and other pressures [6][8] - Manulife US REIT reported a DPU of US$0.027 in 1H2021, but by 1H2023, distributions were halted due to a deteriorating debt situation, illustrating the risks of high yields [9][10] Group 3: Investment Considerations - To avoid yield traps, investors should focus on balance-sheet strength, including metrics like gearing, interest coverage, and the nature of debt [11][12] - Portfolio quality is crucial; for instance, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust maintained high occupancy rates of 98.7% for retail and 96.2% for office properties as of September 2025, indicating strong tenant demand [14][15] - A consistent distribution track record is essential; Mapletree Logistics Trust has shown steady growth in DPU over the years, which is more reassuring than sudden spikes in yield [18] Group 4: Conclusion for Investors - Sustainable payouts backed by stable cash flow and strong balance sheets are more important than just high yield percentages [19][20]
Oaktree Specialty Lending: The Yield Trap Is Still Active (NASDAQ:OCSL)
Seeking Alpha· 2025-11-21 14:15
Core Insights - Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) has frequently entered a discount territory that appears attractive, yet it has consistently disappointed investors who adopt a "buy the dip" strategy [1] Company Overview - Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation is categorized as a Business Development Company (BDC) [1] Investment Sentiment - The stock has been perceived as a potential opportunity due to its discount pricing, but historical performance has led to investor disappointment [1]