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Yield chasing ETFs may have jumped the shark, warns Amplify ETFs CEO
CNBC Television· 2026-02-19 21:35
In your career, you've done a lot with the ETF business back to your Claymore days and everything else. I wonder if you could give us a little bit of um I guess an idea of in that kind of decadesl long span of fund management and and and ETF activity where you think we hit the real interest catalyst in having optionsbased strategies as part of ETFs. Was there a certain era time frame I if you will where people started to move a little bit more away from straight up dividend paying stocks and those income st ...
亚洲银行 2026:似曾相识还是全新局面-Asian Banks_ 2026_ Déjà vu or Déjà new_
2025-12-01 00:49
Summary of Asian Banks Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the performance of Asian banks in 2025, highlighting unusual trends where bank share prices rose despite declining interest rates. This contrasts with historical correlations between share prices and interest rates [1][36][40]. - The MSCI AxJ Banks index increased approximately 15% year-to-date (YTD) in USD terms, underperforming the MSCI Global Banks index, which rose about 30% YTD [27][30]. Key Drivers of Performance - **Liquidity and Money Supply**: A significant increase in global money supply was identified as a key driver for the banking sector's performance, with re-rating contributing approximately 87% of total returns for AxJ banks in 2025 [11][40][42]. - **Chase for Yield**: The pursuit of yield in a low-interest-rate environment led to banking stocks acting as defensive yield proxies, particularly in markets perceived as safe havens like Singapore and Korea [1][15][43]. - **Market-Specific Factors**: Local equity market reforms in countries like Singapore and Korea provided additional liquidity, enhancing the performance of banking stocks [1][42]. Performance by Region - **Top Performers**: Hong Kong, Korea, and China were noted as the best-performing markets, with returns ranging from 20% to 60% YTD [1][31]. - **Underperformers**: Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines experienced declines of 5% to 10% YTD, attributed to political uncertainties and macroeconomic weaknesses [1][31][44]. Future Outlook for 2026 - The call discussed potential scenarios for 2026, including: - **Growth Acceleration**: If economic growth picks up, banks in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam may perform better due to stronger earnings per share (EPS) outlooks [2]. - **Growth Deceleration**: Conversely, if growth slows, banks in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines could benefit from valuation support [2]. - The starting point for valuations in 2026 is expected to be higher due to significant yield compression experienced by top-performing markets [2]. Scorecard Insights - The latest scorecard indicated that Indonesia, Vietnam, and India are preferred markets, while the Philippines was downgraded to neutral due to elevated risk premiums [3]. - Preferred banking stocks include BMRI in Indonesia, Kotak in India, and ACB in Vietnam, while least preferred stocks are UOB in Singapore, KKP in Thailand, and BEA in Hong Kong [4]. Dividend Yield Trends - Dividend yield was a significant theme in 2025, with banks in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand benefiting from attractive yields as domestic interest rates declined [73][74]. - The dividend yield spread for Singapore and Thailand banks remains above the mean, suggesting potential for further yield compression [80]. Earnings Momentum - Vietnam, Taiwan, and Korea banks saw the largest EPS upgrades YTD, while Indonesia and Singapore experienced EPS cuts [63][68]. - Consensus earnings growth expectations for the next 12 months are strongest for Vietnam (17%), India (13%), and several other markets at 8% [69]. Conclusion - The banking sector in Asia is navigating a complex landscape influenced by liquidity, yield chasing, and macroeconomic factors. The performance in 2026 will depend on economic growth trajectories and the ability of banks to adapt to changing market conditions.