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高盛:GOAL Kickstart_ 鸽派与缓和 -市场迎来 “金发姑娘”背景
Goldman Sachs· 2025-07-01 02:24
30 June 2025 | 10:11PM BST GOAL Kickstart Dovish and De-escalation - Markets embrace a Goldilocks Backdrop Last week increased expectations of a more dovish Fed (Exhibit 1), de-escalation of Middle East tensions (Exhibit 2) and progress in U.S. trade negotiations (including removal of section 899) supported growth pricing across assets. Our Economists pulled forward their forecast for the next cut to September and reduced their terminal rate forecast to 3-3.25%. Indeed, our PC1 "Global growth" factor improv ...
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Uncertainty about Iran's reaction is an overhang that markets are waiting on
CNBC Television· 2025-06-23 15:09
Welcome back. Stocks near some session highs. Every sector currently green except energy led by consumer discretionary this morning.Joining us here at Post9 is Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Adviserss, head of research and Fundstrat Capital chief investment officer, also a CNBC contributor. Tom, it's good to have you. Welcome.Talk about confounding expectations, wouldn't you say. What do you make of this morning's action. Well, you know, in some ways it's not a surprise because as you know, like Art Cashion had ...
花旗:美国经济- 鲍威尔释放鸽派信号的三个原因
花旗· 2025-06-23 02:09
V i e w p o i n t | 18 Jun 2025 08:33:31 ET │ 13 pages US Economics The Daily Update – Three reasons for Powell to sound dovish CITI'S TAKE Today at 2PM we expect Chair Powell's comments to skew dovish and median dots to continue to indicate two 25bp rate cuts this year. Powell has at least three reasons to be dovish: 1. Three months of softer core inflation 2. Rising continuing jobless claims 3. Softer housing data. Andrew Hollenhorst AC +1-212-816-0325 andrew.hollenhorst@citi.com Veronica Clark AC +1-212- ...
机构:美联储将采取“超级鸽派”立场,押注美国两年期国债
news flash· 2025-06-16 18:24
对冲基金Tolou Capital Management已对两年期美国国债建立杠杆多头仓位,认为美联储主席鲍威尔将被 一位"超级鸽派"取代,后者将在美国总统特朗普的敦促下大幅降息。 Tolou Capital首席投资官Spencer Hakimian三周前开始做多,押注短期债券收益率将在未来12-18个月内 大幅下降;鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月到期,特朗普最近表示他将"很快"任命继任者。 ...
Tudor Jones Says Next Fed Chair Should Be 'Uber Dovish'
Bloomberg Television· 2025-06-11 14:03
Give us a tip. What's the what's the one long you would hit for the next contest. Hmm.I would say probably probably the yield curve. It just depends on where. I think it'll be higher at that point in time.Man would be very esoteric. So many think. Well, it would definitely.I would definitely be betting on substantially lower front end rates will have a we'll have a new Fed chair within six months at that point in time. And I think Trump's going to pick someone who's going to be uber dovish. Well, let's talk ...
全球经济:深度探讨 —— 利用人工智能衡量各国央行言论
2025-05-18 14:09
ab Global Research owered by UBS Evidence Lab YES P 14 May 2025 Global Economics & Strategy Deep Speak: Using AI to measure what central banks say The BoJ, after decades of easing bias, now ranks as the most hawkish of the three major central banks, and its hawkishness is back at '08 levels, when it was last tightening. Tone as a leading indicator of market repricing As we show here, tone shifts lead policy rate changes and market repricing, especially during tightening cycles. Both the Fed and ECB index ca ...