Fed Policy & Market Expectations - The market anticipates a hawkish Fed cut, with uncertainty about future cuts possibly extending until June [2] - A dovish cut, indicated by projections showing more rate cuts next year, would be bullish for the market [3] - Markets have adjusted to the idea that the Fed is institutionally slightly hawkish, potentially due to external pressure to protect its integrity [7] - The market is bracing for the December meeting, which is why a surprise is possible [8] Quantitative Easing (QE) & Tightening (QT) - The Fed eased primarily using its balance sheet but tightened by draining reserves from the system, causing plumbing issues [11] - Buying Treasury notes and mortgage-backed securities lowers long-term rates, influencing equity prices and risky assets, and suppresses volatility [12] Potential Risks & Opportunities - Acknowledging the balance of risks shifting could signal underlying economic fragility [4] - Ending QT is essentially QE [4]

How are you viewing this Fed rate cut coming up or the expected Fed rate come coming up. It seems like it's all but certain, but certainly we don't know for a fact that it's going to happen. Just 90% chance according to the CME.Is it going to be a hawkish cut or a dobish cut and how much does that matter for the market at least from now until the end of the year. >> Yeah, I think tomorrow, you know, it's very likely. I think there has been a lot of back and forth uh from market pricing for the last couple o ...