Market Volatility - Market volatility has increased due to approximately $23 billion in Bitcoin options expiring next Friday [1] - This expiration accounts for over 50% of total open interest on Deribit [1] - The large option expiration could amplify price swings [1] Options Market - Thirty-day implied volatility has rebounded to nearly 45% [1] - Options skew around -5% indicates downside risk dominates market pricing [1]

Crypto Futures Trading - Crypto futures help hedge downside risk [1] - Crypto futures capture short-term opportunities [1] - Crypto futures strengthen long-term strategies [1] - Crypto futures help manage volatility [1]

Nvidia Earnings Estimates - Revenues forecast to increase by 53% year-over-year [1] - EPS forecast to increase by 48% year-over-year [1] - Estimates keep creeping up, reducing the potential for an upside surprise [1] Market Dynamics & Investor Behavior - Volatility around earnings is up 50% since the pandemic [3] - US market is 100% electronic and 99% algorithmic [3] - Options market is implying about a 6% move to the upside or downside for Nvidia [7] Demand & Supply Analysis - Demand for Nvidia is the weakest since early May, currently below 4 on a 10-point scale [4][5] - Historically, Nvidia stock has declined when demand is below 5 on a 10-point scale [5] - 55% of Nvidia volume is short [6] - 51% of the S&P 500 volume is short [6] Potential Downside Risk - Market has topped demand and rising supply, indicating potential downside risk [7] - Nvidia has about an 8% weighting in the S&P 500 [7]