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Nvidia Earnings Estimates - Revenues forecast to increase by 53% year-over-year [1] - EPS forecast to increase by 48% year-over-year [1] - Estimates keep creeping up, reducing the potential for an upside surprise [1] Market Dynamics & Investor Behavior - Volatility around earnings is up 50% since the pandemic [3] - US market is 100% electronic and 99% algorithmic [3] - Options market is implying about a 6% move to the upside or downside for Nvidia [7] Demand & Supply Analysis - Demand for Nvidia is the weakest since early May, currently below 4 on a 10-point scale [4][5] - Historically, Nvidia stock has declined when demand is below 5 on a 10-point scale [5] - 55% of Nvidia volume is short [6] - 51% of the S&P 500 volume is short [6] Potential Downside Risk - Market has topped demand and rising supply, indicating potential downside risk [7] - Nvidia has about an 8% weighting in the S&P 500 [7]