The Federal Reserve is set to announce its next interest rate decision on December 10, a meeting that comes amid unusual uncertainty. With official economic data releases disrupted by the government shutdown, policymakers are relying on older reports and private surveys to gauge the health of the economy. ...

From @WSJopinion: Ordinary Democrats didn’t demand a shutdown. Left-wing nonprofits did. It was all for show, literally, writes Barton Swaim.https://t.co/Ywy2rP49DQ ...

Monetary Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision is viewed as an agonizing one, with market probabilities at 50/50 [1][2] - The Fed funds rate is currently in a range of 3.75% to 4% [5][6] - Some believe the neutral Fed funds rate is much lower, potentially leading to a 50 basis point cut [6] - The real neutral Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation) is estimated to be between 0.75% and 1% [7] - A neutral nominal Fed funds rate of 2.75% assumes inflation will return to 2%, but it's currently running at 2.75% to 3% [8] - Adding the current inflation rate (2.75% to 3%) to the real neutral rate (0.75% to 1%) yields a nominal rate of 3.5% to 3.75% [9] - The market is seeing more hawkish voices emerge because the Fed is closer to neutral, having already cut rates by 25 basis points in October [11] - The Fed needs to assess whether the labor market weakness is cyclical, due to the shutdown, or structural (mismatches between jobs and job seekers) [13] Economic Factors Influencing the Fed - Near-term tariffs are slowing growth [3] - Immigration policies and uncertainty around 12 to 15 million immigrants in the workforce are affecting supply and hurting growth [4] - The government shutdown has hurt growth, but its resolution will help [4][12] - Tailwinds in 2026 include the unwinding of the shutdown, tax incentives, and regulatory relief [4] - The AI data center power boom is considered near neutral on the Fed funds rate [5] - Inflation has been sticky and running 0.75% to 1% above target [12]

Market Performance & Sector Rotation - Healthcare sector is up 45%, materials are up 3%, and financials are up 25% this week [1] - 27 out of 30 new S&P 52-week highs are non-technology companies, indicating a shift in market momentum [1] - Momentum is turning towards quality assets, initially seen in the dollar, crypto, and gold [2][3] - A catch-up trade is occurring, with investors seeking growth opportunities in sectors like pharma and biotech due to tech being overbought [5] - The catch-up trade is expected to benefit small caps and the equal-weighted S&P, potentially narrowing the performance gap [6] Macroeconomic Factors & Risks - Potential government reopen may release delayed data, which could impact market sentiment and Fed policy [6][7] - Private labor data might indicate upcoming challenges, potentially influencing the Fed's decisions in December [7] - Volatility is expected to persist until the Fed's decision, with major events like Nvidia's report and the Fed decision on December 10th on the horizon [8][9] Healthcare Sector Analysis - Healthcare was unloved for most of the year, making it an attractive opportunity for investors seeking growth [5] - Rotation into healthcare is occurring, but the sector may contain landmines depending on specific investments [11] - Government spending cuts and insurance companies increasing margins could impact the healthcare sector [13] - Biotech is benefiting from lower rates, and healthcare is seen as a place to put money due to years of underperformance [14][15] - Some healthcare stocks have underperformed significantly, making new 12-month highs relatively easier to achieve [16] End-of-Year Outlook - The market is experiencing a chase for performance, with opportunities existing in areas beyond mega-cap tech [4][19] - The current rally is expected to continue until the end of the year, driven by the recognition of opportunities in other market areas [19] - The market is pausing in terms of upside, with volatility remaining a key factor until the Fed's decision [8]

Let me first welcome House Republicans back to the Congress after their 7w week taxpayerf funed vacation. These people have been missing in action, absent without official leave, running scared, but they can no longer hide. >> Minority Leader Hakee Jeff yesterday on Capitol Hill. It comes as Speaker Mike Johnson today is expected to gave in the first full session of the House since September 19th. He's also expected to swear in a Democrat from Arizona who won her special election days after Johnson shut dow ...

Also with us now, let's bring in independent Senator Angus King of Maine. He was among the group of moderates who broke ranks and voted with Republicans in the legislation to fund the government and hold a later vote on extending Affordable Care Act tax subsidies that expire January 1. Senator, thanks so much for being with us.Why did you decide to vote with Republicans to open the government. >> Well, Joe, you have to go back to what the strategy was at the beginning of the shutdown. There were two goals.b ...

Republicans pitch alternative to ACA extension to end government shutdown https://t.co/j43o6xHXdl ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Treasury Secretary Bessent warns the economic impact of the government shutdown is worsening. ...

LIVE S&P 500 Set to Open Down Amid Selloff Fears Last Updated: 27 min ago Dollar Stays Near 3-Month High on Rate-Cut Doubts Memberships Subscribe to Barron's Tools Customer Service Customer Center By Renae Dyer, Dow Jones Newswires The dollar was trading close to a three-month high following a scaling back of U.S. interest-rate cut expectations. In the absence of other major catalysts, markets continue to digest remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week saying a rate cut in December was not ...

So this weekend, millions of Americans are facing real uncertainty as the government shutdown continues and their SNAP benefits sit in legal limbo, adding insult to injury. The US Department of Agriculture sent this warning out to retailers just before SNAP funding ran uh ran out yesterday, urging them not to treat SNAP customers differently than other customers. It says in part, "You must offer eligible food at the same prices and on the same terms and conditions to SNAP EBT customers as other customers." ...