And is the labor market in your view and we're going to hear more about it on Thursday. We'll finally get some numbers. >> Is it slowing at this point.And is uh on the other side the other part of the mandate uh is inflation uh are we seeing the beginnings of of another trend higher or do you think that's uh headed lower. No, I I I think on inflation, you know, the last CPI report we got surprised 48 Bloomberg economists on the downside and even had some sort of temporary bad news because there was a refine ...

Let's talk more about inflation and the Fed. We just got that news about Boston planning to retire at the end of his term in February. Joining us this morning here at Post9 is David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jeffre and of course a CNBC contributor.Good to see you, David. Welcome. >> Good to be here.>> I'm going to guess you're not too worried about the hand ringing about consumer much. >> You know, that's that's probably what you would think, but I am getting a little worried, believe it or not. An ...

Our next guest says the backdrop for stocks looks quote amazing. CNBC contributor David Zervos is the chief market strategist at Jeffre. David, always good to see you.Thanks for joining us here on set. Um, so nothing has Ch I mean the last time we saw you, you thought it was amazing, too. Nothing has changed in terms of the impact of the government shutdown, the doubts that we're having about the AI trade.Everything's status quo amazing. >> I even tried to say it was pretty good back in April, I think, whic ...

Top of the hour, time for the morning news. But of course, there is no news yet. Everyone's still asleep in their comfy, comfy beds.Good night, everybody. >> A the Simpsons highlighting the struggle to get up early is real. And if you're watching this show, you're likely an early riser, too.We start at 6:00 a. m. Our next guest has a new piece in the Atlantic meant for everyone who faces the dreaded morning alarm.Contributing writer Arthur Brooks tackles questions of meaning and happiness in his weekly colu ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter point, influenced by recent job cuts from major companies like Amazon and UPS, despite a lack of official employment data due to a government shutdown [1][2] - Amazon announced a reduction of 14,000 jobs, while UPS has cut 48,000 positions this year, indicating a trend of workforce reductions among large corporations [1][2] - The job cuts are seen as a potential catalyst for further Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, with major indices reaching record highs [2][3] Group 2 - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise in the coming quarters, which could be perceived as beneficial for the market as it may prompt the Fed to take action [3][4] - There is a concern that the current job losses and rising unemployment may eventually lead to negative economic implications, despite some believing that bad news could be good for the market [4][5] - The lack of recent data complicates the understanding of the economic landscape, as companies are providing insights into their operations amidst the job cuts [5][6] Group 3 - The layoffs at UPS are attributed to a reversal of pandemic-driven demand, suggesting that the company cannot sustain its previous workforce levels [8] - In contrast, Amazon's job cuts are viewed as a strategic move to maintain capital discipline and focus on high-potential investments, indicating a different narrative behind their workforce reduction [9][10] - The differing stories of Amazon and UPS highlight the complexities of the current job market, where job cuts may coexist with productivity gains [10]

AI and Job Market - The Conference Board president and CEO Steve Odland discusses how investors should consider AI's risk to jobs [1] Economic Indicators - The discussion includes recent layoffs and other economic factors [1]

Amazon's new robot, Blue Jay, is a peek into the future of how automation is going to squeeze more productivity out of companies.Doing more profit with less expenses means businesses will be more valuable over time. https://t.co/dp4iBmV8vf ...

🔥 BULLISH: @SharpLinkGaming’s @joechalom and @smarterwebuk’s @asjwebly agree; crypto is redefining the modern treasury.BTC anchors scarcity and trust. ETH adds yield and productivity. https://t.co/Cz7AURR71R ...

AI and the Federal Reserve - The Fed is dedicating significant attention to AI, with approximately 25% to 33% of Fed communications addressing the topic [2] - A Fed governor suggests policymakers should allow AI disruption, trusting long-term benefits will outweigh costs, similar to historical technology trends [2] - History indicates new technology fosters growth and employment, with capital and labor acting as complements [3] - The challenge for policymakers is to facilitate worker and firm adaptation, ensuring efficiency gains translate to higher wages and growth [3] AI's Impact on Labor and Productivity - AI-related job losses are currently managed through attrition and retraining, but layoffs are expected to increase, particularly for college-educated workers [5] - AI presents potential threats including fraud, disinformation, bias, and cybersecurity [6] - The Fed anticipates AI could deliver greater productivity, potentially allowing the Fed to operate at a lower rate [6] Regulatory Approaches and Investment - A Fed governor suggests the US approach of allowing technology to develop before regulating is superior to Europe's preemptive regulation [7] - The US approach is credited for the US leading Europe in the 1990s technological boom [7] - A report indicates AI investment may have peaked in the first half of the year [8] Monetary Policy Implications - One Fed governor suggests the neutral rate could be higher due to capital investment from AI [8] - The potential influence of AI on monetary policy, particularly regarding long-run rate outlook changes due to investment and productivity booms, remains a key consideration [9][10]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is increasingly focused on the implications of artificial intelligence (AI) for economic policy, with a significant portion of discussions dedicated to this topic [2][3] - The Fed governor emphasizes the historical trend that new technologies lead to economic growth and job creation, despite initial job losses [3][4] - There is a recognition of the challenges posed by AI, including potential job displacement, particularly among college-educated workers, but also an opportunity for retraining and adjustment [5][6] Group 1: Economic Impact of AI - The Fed governor believes that the disruption caused by AI should be embraced, as the long-term benefits are expected to outweigh the costs [2][3] - Historical evidence suggests that technological advancements typically result in greater employment and productivity, with capital and labor being complementary [3][4] - The transition period may involve job losses before the benefits of new job creation become apparent, highlighting the difficulty in forecasting future job markets [4] Group 2: Job Market Dynamics - Current AI-related job losses are primarily being managed through attrition rather than mass layoffs, with companies focusing on retraining employees [5] - Layoffs are anticipated to rise, particularly affecting workers with college degrees, as AI continues to evolve [5][6] - The Fed governor acknowledges that there will be both winners and losers in the AI landscape, with productivity gains being a key focus for the Fed [6] Group 3: Regulatory Perspectives - The U.S. approach to AI regulation, which allows technology to develop before implementing regulations, is viewed as superior to the European model of preemptive regulation [7] - This regulatory philosophy is credited with enabling the U.S. to lead in technological advancements during the 1990s [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - A Barclays report suggests that AI investment may have peaked in the first half of the year, indicating a potential shift in the investment landscape [8] - The Fed governor notes that increased capital investment from AI could lead to a higher neutral interest rate in the future [8][10] - The integration of large language models in analyzing Fed communications has been ongoing for nearly a decade, indicating a long-standing relationship between AI and economic policy discourse [9]