Professor Jeremy Seagull of the Wharton School, professor of finance. It's good to see you, professor. Welcome. >> Welcome, Scott.>> All right. So, you've you've had a chance to absorb a a week, right. We've had a week.Uh what do you take from it. >> I'm very cautious. Uh I I say if we don't get some breakthrough over the weekend, I think I think we'll see a $100 oil uh next week.And remember, it began the year under 60. I mean that that would be a if we do get that that's that's a 70% increase in price. Uh ...

Let's bring in Rob Rose, city research, head of global strategy here at Post9. Talk about sort of this churning action that we've had last few weeks. Although reclaiming 6,900 is pretty constructive.>> Yeah, I think it is. I you know, um obviously our call from the beginning of the year is very bullish. We thought 7,700 by the end of the year on the S&P with 320 earnings.So we we we think that we'll start to see a lot of uh more adoption and productivity as we go along. And we also have seen a very resilien ...

President Trump telling NBC News he's proud of the US economy and that 2026 is going to be even better. Joining us right now is White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset. Uh good morning to you.There's been a a long sort of back and forth uh about the state of our economy, about how good it is, but also maybe how bad it is and the bad part being what came before during the Biden administration and whether the president now owns this uh this economy. Does the president now officially own th ...

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved approximately 2% volume-led organic growth, with a strong performance in the fourth quarter, delivering 3% volume plus mix growth despite a slowdown in global weighted average category growth to roughly 60 basis points [38][39] - Adjusted free cash flow for the year was $1.9 billion, consistent with previous estimates, indicating the company's ability to maintain performance across quarters [39][45] - The company reported industry-leading gross productivity at 6.2% of Adjusted COGS, peaking at 7.2% in the fourth quarter, exceeding expectations [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The personal care business led the way in productivity improvements, with significant progress in categories like baby and childcare, which are highly competitive [16] - The company pivoted its portfolio towards higher growth, higher margin personal care categories, including the sale of its Brazilian tissue operations and PPE business, and exiting approximately $650 million of private label business [4][5] - Innovations in the personal care segment, such as Huggies' new products, contributed to strong volume growth and market share gains in various regions [24][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In international personal care markets, the company gained over 900 basis points of share in diapers over the past five years, while local competitors shifted focus away from China [20] - The company saw broad-based share gains in international personal care focus markets, with all focus markets delivering volume-led organic growth in Q4 [21][22] - In North America, the company achieved a third consecutive year of positive volume mix-led growth, with personal care growing value share by 20 basis points [27][28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on its "Powering Care" strategy, which emphasizes innovation, cost discipline, and a pivot towards higher margin categories [3][4] - The acquisition of Kenvue is seen as a significant step in the company's transformation, expected to enhance growth and create a scaled health and wellness leader [5][6] - The company aims to build a consumer-centric care model with a portfolio of ten iconic billion-dollar brands across critical life stages [5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate a challenging environment, citing strong execution and a focus on innovation-led growth [19][39] - The outlook for 2026 includes expectations for mid- to high-single-digit constant currency adjusted EPS growth, driven by the Kenvue acquisition and ongoing operational improvements [47][48] - The company anticipates continued pressure on consumers and a focus on value, but remains committed to supporting its brands and driving growth initiatives [11][47] Other Important Information - The company has made significant investments in its North American manufacturing footprint, including a $2 billion investment to build an advanced manufacturing facility and an automated distribution center [16] - The company has improved its cash conversion cycle from 6 days in 2021 to around negative 10 days at the close of 2025, reflecting better working capital discipline [43] - The company has achieved a strong overhead leverage, expanding adjusted operating profit margins by 100 basis points over the past two years [42] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for the Kenvue acquisition? - Management expects the Kenvue acquisition to be quickly accretive to earnings and value-enhancing for shareholders, with a focus on achieving significant synergies [37][53] Question: How is the company addressing competitive pressures? - The company is maintaining a disciplined approach to innovation and marketing, focusing on delivering superior consumer value propositions to navigate competitive pressures [19][27] Question: What is the outlook for 2026? - The company projects mid- to high-single-digit constant currency adjusted EPS growth for 2026, supported by the Kenvue acquisition and ongoing operational improvements [47][48]

Uh thank you uh Mr. . Chairman for taking our questions here. Um the uh you had previously described rate cuts in terms of a riskmanagement framework and kind of following up on what Howard was asking um is the riskmanagement phase of rate cuts over here and uh um have you taken out sufficient uh insurance I guess against potential weakness in terms of the data we might get next week when it comes to employment.So we're going to get a great deal of data between now and the and the January meeting and I'm su ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and believes they should do so [2] - The firm expects the Fed to be hawkish in its rhetoric following the rate cut but suggests they should be patient and await official data on the labor market [2] - Goldman Sachs suspects the labor market is weaker than it appears and anticipates a deeper easing cycle from the Fed than the market currently expects [3] - The firm believes the Fed will quickly counteract negative pressures in the labor market and move into a more easing posture early in the new year [4] Labor Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs acknowledges mixed messages in job openings reports and unemployment claims but suspects labor market weakness will become apparent in 2026 [5][3] - The firm anticipates productivity gains from technology and AI adoption will necessitate easier monetary policy to assist labor market rebalancing [6] Economic Growth and Inflation - Goldman Sachs is bullish on growth in 2026, anticipating high GDP and high unemployment, requiring lower interest rates [7][8] - The firm expects productivity gains to lower the cost of goods sold, benefiting consumers and margins, and does not anticipate stubbornly high inflation [7][6] - Goldman Sachs views AI and technological advances as a significant unlock of productivity, benefiting consumers and the real economy [8][9] Fiscal Implications - Goldman Sachs notes that great growth and lower interest rates would be beneficial for the US government's fiscal balance [9]

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