Market Trend - Bitcoin's 200-week moving average is $57 thousand, indicating an upward trend and divergence from the geometric mean [1]

RT PlanB (@100trillionUSD)Now that you are all freaking out about some 50 week moving average .... this Oct 2019 tweet (when BTC was $8k, and most people were freaking out about miner capitulation after 2020 halving, and I was predicting $55k) feels relevant. ...

Market Analysis & Predictions - The analysis indicates a 60-70% probability that Bitcoin's cycle top has already occurred, considering the weekly close below the 50-week moving average and the late stage of the cycle [10] - A potential scenario involves a bear market with Bitcoin dropping approximately 50% to the 60-70K range, aligning with the 200-week moving average, but the analysis anticipates a smaller drawdown compared to previous cycles due to the absence of a euphoria phase [19][20] - The analysis suggests that if the cycle top is in, a rally back to the 200-day moving average is expected at some point [14][15] - The analysis posits that if Bitcoin rallies back above 103K, the odds of a continued bull market would revert to 50/50; however, a second weekly close below the 50-week moving average would significantly increase the likelihood of the cycle top being in [22][30] - The analysis suggests that if the cycle is not over, a sizable rally should occur within the next few days following the death cross; failure to rally would indicate a higher probability of the cycle top being in [33][35] Technical Indicators & Historical Patterns - Bitcoin's weekly close below the 50-week moving average is historically a negative indicator, often signaling the end of the cycle in prior post-halving Q4s [3][4] - Historically, weekly closes below the 50-week moving average in post-halving years have preceded a drop to the 200-week moving average [5] - Death crosses often coincide with local lows, but this pattern may not hold true at the end of the cycle [10][12][13] - The 200-day moving average is expected to play a significant role, regardless of whether the cycle top is in [16] Risk Management & Future Outlook - The analysis emphasizes the importance of respecting the current market conditions and preparing for a potential bear market, with the 200-week moving average as a key focus for the coming months [36] - The analysis suggests that a potential outcome involves Bitcoin dropping to the 200-week moving average and then backtesting a trend line around mid-2026 [37]

Market Trend - The market is referencing Scottie Pippen interacting with the 50-week moving average in the context of the year 2025 [1]

Market Trend - Bitcoin has been above the $100k barrier for the 5th month [1] - Realized price is above the 200-week moving average [1] - Momentum is building [1] Technical Indicators - Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 69, with potential to reach 80+ [1]

$BTC's 200-week moving average is nearing $50,000, at $49,223, marking a significant milestone in the four-year cycle. By @btcjvs.https://t.co/SSWtdEDn4J ...

Market Cycle Analysis - Bitcoin's cycle historically ends when it closes two weekly candles below the 50-week moving average [1][2] - A rally potentially starting in Q4 could lead to an all-time high if Bitcoin stays above the 50-week moving average [2] Key Indicator - The 50-week moving average is a key level to watch in Q3 to determine the future trend of Bitcoin [2]