A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion. Far from it. >> At the October 29th FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made comments that convinced the market that a December rate cut was no longer a done deal.Powell noted that the absence of reliable data, created high uncertainty, and suggested the situation may favor caution when it comes to further eases. The futures markets believed him. Odds for a December rate cut plunged from over 90% to below 50% in t ...

There's no question that when you look at the labor numbers, you know, there's there's a little bit of softening and, you know, I'm pretty confident that we'll have a 25 basis point cut. Um, you know, whether or not we have a 50 basis point cut, I don't think that's probably in the cards. Um, so I would expect a 25 basis point cut and I think you could see one or two other cuts, you know, depending on how economic conditions play out from here.But there's no question we're going to see a slight change, you ...

🇺🇸 POWELL: "Our policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than it was a year ago" https://t.co/ec9TYPm97V ...

The chief executive of Japan’s largest bank wants the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate as early as the next meeting https://t.co/jzKBSezQAL ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The industry suggests the Fed might have already implemented one rate cut [1] - The industry notes the Fed's previous Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) in March occurred before the April 2nd tariff announcement [1] - The industry observes the Fed's forecasts indicate a slightly more restrictive policy stance than anticipated in March [1] - The industry believes the Fed made the right decision to hold the funds rate steady, awaiting more clarity [1] Economic Outlook - The industry acknowledges the economy's resilience, citing a strong labor market and rebounding growth after a negative first quarter [1] - The industry recognizes uncertainty regarding the size and effects of tariffs, anticipating higher inflation and weaker growth [1] - The industry expects the budget bill working its way through Congress to influence the economic outlook [1] - The industry highlights the importance of minimizing both the risk and cost of policy mistakes, suggesting it's not costly to hold rates steady given the current economic environment [3] Inflation and Unemployment - The industry indicates tariffs are expected to cause higher inflation, at least temporarily, and slightly higher unemployment [1] - The industry points out that the unemployment rate is low [3] - The industry observes that growth in employment is moderating as expected [4]