Summary of Yili Industrial NDR Feedback Company Overview - **Company**: Yili Industrial (600887.SS) - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Market Cap**: Rmb167,070 million - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: Rmb35.00, representing a 28% upside from the closing price of Rmb27.26 on September 26, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Raw Milk Supply/Demand Dynamics**: - Management indicated a sequential drop in cow herds and a rebound in non-contractual raw milk prices, expecting a supply/demand balance by 2026 [2][9] - **Product Category Strategy**: - Focus on liquid milk recovery, with a target of low to mid-single digit growth post-2026 [10] - Anticipation of higher growth in other dairy segments, leading to a gradual decline in liquid milk's contribution to total sales [2][9] - Plans to enhance the product portfolio mix and incubate new segments for long-term growth [9] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: - Projected net revenue for fiscal years ending December 2024 to 2027: Rmb114,121 million, Rmb117,704 million, Rmb122,646 million, and Rmb129,510 million respectively [6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - Expected EPS growth from Rmb1.32 in 2024 to Rmb2.24 in 2027 [6] - **Capital Expenditure**: - Estimated at Rmb3-4 billion per annum in the near term [10] Strategic Focus Areas - **Market Share Goals**: - Aim to secure the 1 market share for the Yili brand by 2027 [10] - **Dividend Policy**: - Commitment to maintain a dividend payout of no less than 70% and consider share buybacks [10] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: - Faster-than-expected demand recovery and better margin expansion due to rational marketing investments [13] - **Downside Risks**: - Potential for slower dairy demand growth and prolonged raw milk oversupply, which could necessitate continued promotional investments [13] Additional Insights - **Stimulus Policies**: - Management anticipates more rounds of subsidies to boost birth rates in 2026, which could positively impact raw milk supply [3] - **Long-term Growth Segments**: - Focus on deep-processing, overseas markets, and adult milk powder as part of the growth strategy [9] This summary encapsulates the key points from the Yili Industrial NDR feedback, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial outlook, and industry dynamics.