I think he's backing off a bit on the extreme tariffs scarlet and pumped up prices and a lot of expenses for other companies, but specifically for aluminum. The lessons in aluminum are you never want to buy it above 3000 at first traded 3019. In 1988, it pumped above 3000 again this year.And almost always it goes back down to 2000. It's basically an electrified metal. What are the key costs for aluminum is the cost of electricity.And we all know that's going up. But the bottom line is unless you really expe ...

Market Volatility - The stock market is not particularly volatile [1] - The stock market is fragile [1]

Market Analysis & Gold Performance - Gold price surged significantly, up 66% year-to-date, ranking among the top four performances in the last 100 years, only surpassed by 1979, 1973, and 1974 [1] - The disparity between gold's rise and crude oil's 20% decline, reaching approximately 86%, signals a severe global deflationary force [2] - Gold's behavior, rising when stock market volatility is low, raises concerns about a potential uptick in stock market volatility; gold might be providing a warning signal [3] - A weaker U S dollar has contributed to gold's strength, as most commodities are denominated in U S dollars [3] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - A controversial U S president and ongoing wars are beneficial for gold; Trump's actions against the Fed seem to positively impact the gold market [4] - Central banks are underlying buyers in the cash market, supporting gold prices, but their buying may decrease as prices approach the $4,000 level [11] - The government shutdown and the delay in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission report contribute to a perfect storm for gold, which might be ending [9][10] Potential Correction & Risks - Gold has reached its highest level since 1981 relative to its 60-month moving average, suggesting it may be time to reduce long positions [5] - A pullback to $3,500 is possible, as $4,000 has transitioned from key resistance to support; a 30% correction from current levels would be normal, similar to 2008 [6] - A stock market correction of 5% to 10%, which hasn't occurred in a long time, could push gold prices lower [8] Indicators & Speculation - Open interest in gold futures has remained flat for years, indicating a lack of significant speculation [10] - ETF inflows have increased, but the cash market and central bank buying are the primary drivers of gold's movement [11]

Market Trends & Dynamics - Short squeeze events, similar to those observed in 2011 with futures curves, are currently impacting silver prices, potentially leading to inflated values [1] - Silver is outperforming gold this year, but underperforming on a risk-adjusted basis, exhibiting approximately two times the volatility of gold [2] - Precious metals like platinum, palladium, and silver are catching up to gold, driven by their greater industrial applications compared to gold's increasing role as a store of value [2][3] - Monitoring the VIX is crucial, as a recovery in S&P stock market volatility could exert downward pressure on metals other than gold, particularly silver [3][4] - A price differential exists, with silver being shipped to the U S from London to capitalize on it [5] Key Levels & Ratios - The $50 level, previously a resistance point, is transitioning into a support level for silver prices [6] - The gold-silver ratio is around 79, acting as a support level, with a range of 80-105 observed over the past year [9] - A gold-silver ratio below 80 indicates a potential global economic pickup and increased demand for industrial metals like silver [9] - A rise in stock market volatility could push the gold-silver ratio towards 100, while the ratio peaked at 105 in April when the stock market peaked [9][10] Risk Considerations - Caution is advised when buying silver at current levels, especially given its historical volatility ("devil's metal") and potential for short covering rallies [7] - Recovering stock market volatility poses a pressure factor for silver and a potential demand factor for gold [6]

Federal Reserve Policy & Market Reaction - The market had priced in a 25 basis point cut, with expectations inching towards more cuts later in the year and in 2026 [2] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate appears fairly balanced [5] - The stock market and 10-year yield closed flat following the Fed's decision [6] - Rates decreased by approximately 10% in the two months leading up to the decision [8] Investment Strategies & Market Sentiment - Waiting for the Fed's actual rate call to buy stocks is considered too late by hedge funds and major institutions [10][11] - A durable rally typically requires the Fed to cut rates well below neutral levels [12] - The rally observed has largely been in anticipation of the rate cut [13] - Gold has increased by 11% alongside a significant rise in the stock market over the last three months [7] Future Outlook & Dissent - Expectations regarding future policy changes rapidly [9] - As May 2026 approaches, when Powell's term ends, the Fed may become more dovish [9] - Seven individuals called for no cut [8]

Market Outlook - The stock market is expected to become increasingly volatile in the coming years due to the current debasement of the US dollar [1]