Market Volatility - The stock market is not particularly volatile [1] - The stock market is fragile [1]

Market Analysis & Gold Performance - Gold price surged significantly, up 66% year-to-date, ranking among the top four performances in the last 100 years, only surpassed by 1979, 1973, and 1974 [1] - The disparity between gold's rise and crude oil's 20% decline, reaching approximately 86%, signals a severe global deflationary force [2] - Gold's behavior, rising when stock market volatility is low, raises concerns about a potential uptick in stock market volatility; gold might be providing a warning signal [3] - A weaker U S dollar has contributed to gold's strength, as most commodities are denominated in U S dollars [3] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - A controversial U S president and ongoing wars are beneficial for gold; Trump's actions against the Fed seem to positively impact the gold market [4] - Central banks are underlying buyers in the cash market, supporting gold prices, but their buying may decrease as prices approach the $4,000 level [11] - The government shutdown and the delay in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission report contribute to a perfect storm for gold, which might be ending [9][10] Potential Correction & Risks - Gold has reached its highest level since 1981 relative to its 60-month moving average, suggesting it may be time to reduce long positions [5] - A pullback to $3,500 is possible, as $4,000 has transitioned from key resistance to support; a 30% correction from current levels would be normal, similar to 2008 [6] - A stock market correction of 5% to 10%, which hasn't occurred in a long time, could push gold prices lower [8] Indicators & Speculation - Open interest in gold futures has remained flat for years, indicating a lack of significant speculation [10] - ETF inflows have increased, but the cash market and central bank buying are the primary drivers of gold's movement [11]

Market Trends & Dynamics - Short squeeze events, similar to those observed in 2011 with futures curves, are currently impacting silver prices, potentially leading to inflated values [1] - Silver is outperforming gold this year, but underperforming on a risk-adjusted basis, exhibiting approximately two times the volatility of gold [2] - Precious metals like platinum, palladium, and silver are catching up to gold, driven by their greater industrial applications compared to gold's increasing role as a store of value [2][3] - Monitoring the VIX is crucial, as a recovery in S&P stock market volatility could exert downward pressure on metals other than gold, particularly silver [3][4] - A price differential exists, with silver being shipped to the U S from London to capitalize on it [5] Key Levels & Ratios - The $50 level, previously a resistance point, is transitioning into a support level for silver prices [6] - The gold-silver ratio is around 79, acting as a support level, with a range of 80-105 observed over the past year [9] - A gold-silver ratio below 80 indicates a potential global economic pickup and increased demand for industrial metals like silver [9] - A rise in stock market volatility could push the gold-silver ratio towards 100, while the ratio peaked at 105 in April when the stock market peaked [9][10] Risk Considerations - Caution is advised when buying silver at current levels, especially given its historical volatility ("devil's metal") and potential for short covering rallies [7] - Recovering stock market volatility poses a pressure factor for silver and a potential demand factor for gold [6]

Federal Reserve Policy & Market Reaction - The market had priced in a 25 basis point cut, with expectations inching towards more cuts later in the year and in 2026 [2] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate appears fairly balanced [5] - The stock market and 10-year yield closed flat following the Fed's decision [6] - Rates decreased by approximately 10% in the two months leading up to the decision [8] Investment Strategies & Market Sentiment - Waiting for the Fed's actual rate call to buy stocks is considered too late by hedge funds and major institutions [10][11] - A durable rally typically requires the Fed to cut rates well below neutral levels [12] - The rally observed has largely been in anticipation of the rate cut [13] - Gold has increased by 11% alongside a significant rise in the stock market over the last three months [7] Future Outlook & Dissent - Expectations regarding future policy changes rapidly [9] - As May 2026 approaches, when Powell's term ends, the Fed may become more dovish [9] - Seven individuals called for no cut [8]

Market Outlook - The stock market is expected to become increasingly volatile in the coming years due to the current debasement of the US dollar [1]