You're supposed to be selling when they're yelling. And the yelling in gold is not the most extreme it's been since 1979. So you nail that.Nailed it. Yeah, it's right now it's just a little bit of profit taking, but it's what's happening in gold that's very disconcerting. As of yesterday, it was up 66% in the year.That put it among the top four of the last 100 years with only 1979, 73 and 74 ahead of it. So it's very expensive. The same time, crude oil was down about 20%.That disparity around 86% has never ...

Market Trends & Dynamics - Short squeeze events, similar to those observed in 2011 with futures curves, are currently impacting silver prices, potentially leading to inflated values [1] - Silver is outperforming gold this year, but underperforming on a risk-adjusted basis, exhibiting approximately two times the volatility of gold [2] - Precious metals like platinum, palladium, and silver are catching up to gold, driven by their greater industrial applications compared to gold's increasing role as a store of value [2][3] - Monitoring the VIX is crucial, as a recovery in S&P stock market volatility could exert downward pressure on metals other than gold, particularly silver [3][4] - A price differential exists, with silver being shipped to the U S from London to capitalize on it [5] Key Levels & Ratios - The $50 level, previously a resistance point, is transitioning into a support level for silver prices [6] - The gold-silver ratio is around 79, acting as a support level, with a range of 80-105 observed over the past year [9] - A gold-silver ratio below 80 indicates a potential global economic pickup and increased demand for industrial metals like silver [9] - A rise in stock market volatility could push the gold-silver ratio towards 100, while the ratio peaked at 105 in April when the stock market peaked [9][10] Risk Considerations - Caution is advised when buying silver at current levels, especially given its historical volatility ("devil's metal") and potential for short covering rallies [7] - Recovering stock market volatility poses a pressure factor for silver and a potential demand factor for gold [6]

Federal Reserve Policy & Market Reaction - The market had priced in a 25 basis point cut, with expectations inching towards more cuts later in the year and in 2026 [2] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate appears fairly balanced [5] - The stock market and 10-year yield closed flat following the Fed's decision [6] - Rates decreased by approximately 10% in the two months leading up to the decision [8] Investment Strategies & Market Sentiment - Waiting for the Fed's actual rate call to buy stocks is considered too late by hedge funds and major institutions [10][11] - A durable rally typically requires the Fed to cut rates well below neutral levels [12] - The rally observed has largely been in anticipation of the rate cut [13] - Gold has increased by 11% alongside a significant rise in the stock market over the last three months [7] Future Outlook & Dissent - Expectations regarding future policy changes rapidly [9] - As May 2026 approaches, when Powell's term ends, the Fed may become more dovish [9] - Seven individuals called for no cut [8]

Market Outlook - The stock market is expected to become increasingly volatile in the coming years due to the current debasement of the US dollar [1]