Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 is down -0.37 (-2.42%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is down -7.90 (-1.82%), indicating a sharp decline in sugar prices to 1-week lows [1] - The dollar index's rally to a 1-week high is exerting pressure on most commodity prices, including sugar [1] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production Outlook - Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 is expected to fall by -3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports projected to decrease by -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [2] - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for sugar prices [5] - Brazil's cumulative sugar output through November 2025-26 rose by +1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar increasing to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [5] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Dynamics - India's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 31 MMT from 30 MMT, reflecting an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, which is pressuring sugar prices [4] - The Indian government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota system introduced for sugar exports in 2022/23 [3] - The India Sugar Mill Association reported a +28% year-on-year increase in sugar production from October 1 to December 15, reaching 7.83 MMT [4]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently increased, with NY sugar reaching a 2-week high and London sugar a 1-week high, driven by a stronger Brazilian real which discourages exports [1] - Increased sugar production in India and Brazil has led to a bearish outlook for sugar prices, with India reporting a significant year-on-year production increase [2][5] - Brazil's sugar production forecast for 2025/26 has been raised, contributing to expectations of a sugar surplus in the coming years [3][4] Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.25 (+1.68%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +5.20 (+1.23%) [1] - The Brazilian real's rally to a 1-week high against the dollar has sparked short covering in sugar futures, impacting export sales [1] Group 2: Production Trends - Indian sugar production from October to November increased by +43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT), with more mills crushing cane compared to the previous year [2] - Brazil's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 45 MMT, with a reported +8.7% year-on-year increase in sugar output in the first half of November [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025/26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, reflecting a significant upward revision from previous estimates [4]