March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.14 (+0.95%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is up +1.10 (+0.27%). Sugar prices are pushing higher today as a rally in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) to a 20-month high has sparked short covering in sugar futures.  The stronger real discourages exports sales from Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart Higher global sugar production has recently pressured sugar prices.  Unica reported last Wednesday that Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Cen ...

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing a significant decline, with NY sugar reaching a 4.25-year low and London sugar hitting a 4-year low due to increased production in Brazil [2] - Brazil's sugar output in the second half of August rose by 18% year-on-year to 3.872 million tons, with a higher percentage of sugarcane being crushed for sugar [2] - The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, although the deficit is expected to improve compared to the previous year [6] Group 1: Price Trends - October NY world sugar 11 is down 0.28 (-1.80%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 is down 5.60 (-1.22%) [1] - Sugar prices have been on a downtrend for the past six months, primarily due to the outlook for higher sugar production in Brazil [4] Group 2: Production Insights - Brazil's Center-South sugar output for the 2025-26 season through August fell by 1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 million tons [2] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills increased to 54.20% from 48.78% year-on-year [2] - Brazil's sugar mills are prioritizing sugar production over ethanol, leading to increased sugar output as harvesting peaks [4] Group 3: Global Market Dynamics - India may divert 4 million tons of sugar to ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased exports of sugar from Indian mills [3] - The International Sugar Organization projects global sugar production to rise by 3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 million tons for the 2025/26 season [6] - Global sugar consumption is expected to increase by 0.3% year-on-year to 180.8 million tons for the 2025/26 season [6] Group 4: Market Positioning - An excessive short position by funds in NY sugar could lead to potential gains in any short-covering rally, with net-short positions increasing by 32,849 to 182,608 [5]