Trade Tensions and Tariffs - The market is closely watching trade tensions, especially regarding tariffs imposed by President Trump on various countries, including Canada [1] - The potential average effective tariff rate is estimated to be 15% to 20% [3] - Tariffs are generally considered inflationary by raising prices, with American consumers ultimately bearing the cost [3] - The impact of tariffs is influenced by how American importers pass on the tariff burden to overseas suppliers and the fluctuation of the US dollar against other currencies [3][4] Legal Challenges to Tariffs - A legal challenge is underway against President Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [5][6] - The Constitution grants Congress the tariff power, but Congress also enacts statutes allowing the president to impose tariffs in specific situations [7] - The IEEPA was not previously seen as authorizing a president to impose tariffs, only non-tariff trade barriers [7] - A lower court initially struck down the tariffs, but the Court of Appeals blocked the order, and the tariffs are still being collected [9] - The Court of Appeals expressed skepticism about the legality of the tariffs under the IEEPA [9] US-China Trade Negotiations - US-China trade negotiations are the most closely watched by the market [11] - There is a lack of concrete details in current trade deals, benefiting Chinese trade negotiators [11][12] - China seems to be able to pressure the US government to relax export controls [13] - The absence of concrete details in trade deals provides no incentive for the Chinese government to commit to specific terms [14]

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The precious metal has been supported by anxieties over the fallouts of trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and strong inflows to exchange-traded funds and central banks https://t.co/7nlqpGYJvX ...

Global Economic Outlook - The US is behaving like a developing nation, exhibiting core market correlations more common in developing countries, such as currency weakening despite rising yields and the breakdown of negative correlations between bonds and equities [4] - The market initially had an 80% probability of a "Reagan moment" but fluctuated to below 50% by early April, and is now around 70%, indicating uncertainty about whether the US will experience a positive transformation or stagflation and recession [6] - There's a 50/50 chance of either "globalization light" or total fragmentation, with the outcome depending on how other countries react [6] Market and Corporate Reactions - The market views US corporations as strong with good balance sheets and innovations, and believes the US is escalating trade tensions to de-escalate, expecting either deadline extensions or favorable outcomes from negotiations by August 1st [8][9] - CEOs are generally in a "wait and see" mode, postponing major investment plans due to uncertainty about tariffs (e g, whether they will be 30% or 10%, volatile or fixed), impacting supply chains and market strategies [11][12] - Financial markets have adapted to the idea that deadlines will be pushed back, but the ultimate destination of trade policies remains unknown [14][15] Trade and Geopolitical Risks - Mexico was surprised by the potential 30% tariff, indicating that countries not currently in focus could quickly become targets [20] - China is not out of the woods regarding tariff issues and is no longer a locomotive of global growth, with concerns that it may start dumping exports, especially on the European Union, causing trade tensions [21][22] - The EU is preparing a response to US tariff threats and may seek alliances with other countries [23] Investment Strategies - European financial markets have outperformed US markets in the first quarter by 17 percentage points, benefiting from an excessive overweighting of US assets at the start of the year [26] - For Europe to continue outperforming, it needs to attract capital back, which it hasn't been doing sufficiently [27] - Companies are considering "C plus many" or "many" strategies for supply chains, reducing reliance on China and increasing resilience, which involves rewiring supply chains and is time-consuming and expensive [18]

>> Investors are paying close attention to Iran and Israel trading strikes. In addition, the fed begins its latest meeting today. Joining us now on rates Megan Draper, global head of debt capital markets at Barclays.And you know, as usual another day we've got another another scary talk about how US debt level highest the talk of Wall Street. Have you been talking about it a lot. The high debt level.Yes. >> I think the most worrisome part of the market has been the volatility in rates, without question. But ...