Economic Indicators & Fed Policy - The week includes the Jolt survey, consumer confidence data, and the Fed survey [2] - ADP number is expected to be on the low side, with 82,000 expected [3] - GDP adjustments are anticipated due to import handling [3] - The Fed's preferred inflation indicator will be released [4] - Non-farm payrolls are expected to be 102,000, but previous reports have surprised to the upside [4] - The Fed meeting and announcement are significant, with potential dissents from Waller and Bowman [5] - There's a very low probability (2.1%) of a Fed rate cut in July, but a 66% probability for September and 63% for December, indicating expectations of two cuts this year [6][7] Tariffs & Economic Impact - The removal of crazy high tariffs and uncertainty about tariffs is noted [9][10] - The focus shifts to the economic impacts of tariffs, including potential inflation and weakened growth [10] - The stock market's reaction to these economic factors is being observed, with some suggesting a potential disconnect between the stock market and the economic outlook [10][11]