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CELH to Report Q3 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock Now?
ZACKS· 2025-11-05 13:21
Core Insights - Celsius Holdings, Inc. is expected to report strong third-quarter earnings on November 6, 2025, driven by brand relevance and category growth, but faces challenges from cost inflation and integration complexities [1][14] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues is $720.7 million, reflecting a 171.2% increase year-over-year [2] - The consensus estimate for earnings has risen to 28 cents per share, a significant improvement from breakeven results in the same quarter last year [2] Earnings Performance - Celsius Holdings has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 5.4%, with the last quarter's earnings exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 104.4% [3] Earnings Prediction Model - The current Zacks Rank for Celsius Holdings is 3 (Hold), with an Earnings ESP of -6.55%, indicating uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [4][5] Factors Influencing Q3 Earnings - Continued momentum from a strong Q2 is expected to carry into Q3, supported by brand strength and retail distribution expansion [6] - The integration of Alani Nu is enhancing consumer reach, particularly among female and Gen Z demographics, which are key growth segments in the energy drink category [6] Marketing and Product Strategy - New product launches and flavor extensions, along with effective marketing, are anticipated to boost household penetration and brand visibility [7] - Broader wellness trends and consumer preferences for functional, zero-sugar beverages are favorable for Celsius' product positioning [7] Cost Pressures - Management has indicated potential gross margin pressure in the second half of 2025 due to Alani Nu's lower margin profile and integration costs [8] - Continued investments in marketing and distribution are expected to keep costs elevated [8] Stock Performance - Over the past year, Celsius Holdings stock has increased by 96.8%, outperforming the Zacks Food – Miscellaneous industry, which declined by 18.6% [9] - The stock also surpassed the S&P 500's growth of 17.9% during the same period [9] Competitive Positioning - Celsius Holdings has outperformed major beverage competitors like PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, and Monster Beverage over the past year [10] Valuation Analysis - Celsius Holdings shares are trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 42.31, significantly higher than the industry average of 14.65, indicating a premium valuation [12] - Compared to peers, Celsius' valuation is notably higher, with PepsiCo at 16.92, Coca-Cola at 21.35, and Monster Beverage at 31.6 [13] Investment Outlook - Celsius Holdings is positioned well for the upcoming earnings report, supported by strong fundamentals, but faces near-term margin pressures due to integration costs and marketing expenses [14]