Economics and Prediction - Economics differs from hard sciences like physics because its causal laws operate through human agency, introducing organized chaos [1] - Economists cannot make the same sort of predictions as physicists due to the unpredictable nature of human behavior [1] - The financial crisis of 2008 was not predicted by economists, unlike Halley's comet which has a predictable return every 76 years [2][5] - Uncertainty is inherent in economics and life, making it difficult to have a crystal ball for predicting events like the next financial crisis [11][12] Human Behavior and Rationality - Human behavior is not always rational, as illustrated by the example of graduate students outsourcing tasks based on cost-benefit analysis, which later changed after having children [1] - The Queen of England questioned economists about their failure to predict the 2008 financial crisis, highlighting the human element of complacency [5][9] - Economists may be more like historians, understanding past events but unable to predict future ones with certainty [12][13] Mathematics in Economics - There is an increasing use of mathematics in economics, but it may not fully capture the organized chaos of human life [1] - The Phillips machine, a hydraulic machine illustrating money flow in the UK economy, was an attempt to model economic behavior but could not predict the financial crisis [6][7][8]