Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Soft Commodity Sector** - **Sugar**: Affected by the gasoline price cut in Brazil, the international sugar price dropped, dragging down the Zhengzhou sugar futures. However, after the release of negative sentiment, marginal positive factors supported the sugar price, and the price rebounded slightly after an over - decline. It is recommended to operate within a range, focusing on the battle at the 5400 level [3]. - **Pulp**: In the third quarter, the domestic economic growth slowed down, dragging down the demand for finished paper. The supply of wood pulp remained high, and the demand for finished paper increased in the peak season, but the price increase was weak. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias on rebounds [4]. - **Offset Paper**: The improvement in demand for finished paper is limited, and the supply pressure may increase. Although the cost provides some support, the price increase is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds [5][6]. - **Cotton**: Internationally, there are concerns about consumption. Domestically, the new cotton production increase is slightly lower than expected, and the Sino - US trade attitude has eased. However, the continuous positive factors are still insufficient, and it is recommended to reduce short positions [7]. - **Fresh Produce and Fruit Sector** - **Apples**: The new - season apples have smaller fruit sizes and a lower high - quality fruit rate, which supports the far - month contract. It is recommended to consider reverse spreads between the 1 - 5 contracts or hold long positions in the May contract cautiously [8]. - **Red Dates**: The futures price of red dates fluctuated. The inventory removal speed slowed down in October, and the terminal replenishment enthusiasm improved. It is recommended that aggressive investors short the 2601 contract at high levels, and cautious investors hold a reverse spread strategy of short 01 and long 05 [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Produce and Fruit Futures** - **Apple 2605**: Adopt a bullish approach, with a support range of 7900 - 8000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9600, due to the support from smaller fruit sizes and a lower high - quality fruit rate [18]. - **Red Dates 2601**: Short at high levels, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000, considering the overall market sentiment and the weather impact during the production - forming period [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - **Sugar 2601**: Operate within a range, with a support range of 5350 - 5370 and a pressure range of 5470 - 5500, as the spot price is stable, but there are still bearish drivers [18]. - **Pulp 2601**: Short within the range, with a support range of 4900 - 4900 and a pressure range of 5200 - 5300, because of high supply pressure and weak domestic finished paper prices [18]. - **Offset Paper 2601**: Short on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4400 - 4500, as the price increase is limited by high supply elasticity during the peak season [18]. - **Cotton 2601**: Hold short positions cautiously, with a support range of 12800 - 13000 and a pressure range of 13600 - 13700, due to insufficient continuous positive factors [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamentals**: In September 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32% [19]. - **Spot Market**: In Shandong, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples was stable, with high - quality goods in short supply. In Shaanxi, the mainstream ordering price was stable, and high - quality goods were mostly pre - ordered. In the sales areas, the arrival volume was low, the sales speed was stable, and the price was stable [19][20]. - **Red Date Market**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9167 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39% and a year - on - year increase of 93.89%. Attention should be paid to the circulation of old - season goods and price changes before the new - season harvest [21]. - **Sugar Market**: On October 22, the settlement price of the ICE raw sugar main contract dropped by 3.05%. Brazil's sugar export volume in the third week of October decreased by 2.68% year - on - year. The domestic spot price of sugar decreased slightly [23]. - **Pulp Market**: Chinese traders counter - offered the price of imported NBSK to $650 per ton, but the sellers refused. The price of broad - leaf pulp increased, and the price of coniferous pulp remained stable and weak. The supply of wood pulp was still high [4][27]. - **Offset Paper Market**: In Shandong, Guangdong, Beijing, and Tianjin, the price of offset paper was stable. The supply increased, and the demand improvement was limited [28][29]. - **Cotton Market**: As of October 20, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 67.9%. In August, India's cotton import volume increased by 8.4% month - on - month and 33.9% year - on - year [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - **Apple 2601**: The closing price was 8794, a decrease of 0.63% [30][31]. - **Red Dates 2601**: The closing price was 11265, a decrease of 1.01% [30][31]. - **Sugar 2601**: The closing price was 5426, a decrease of 0.22% [31]. - **Pulp 2511**: The closing price was 4854, unchanged [31]. - **Cotton 2601**: The closing price was 13535, a decrease of 0.04% [31]. - **Spot Market Review** - **Apple**: The spot price was 3.75 yuan per catty, unchanged month - on - month and an increase of 0.55 yuan year - on - year [37]. - **Red Dates**: The spot price was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan [37]. - **Sugar**: The spot price was 5750 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 790 yuan [37]. - **Pulp**: The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was 5550 yuan per ton, unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 700 yuan [37]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of Taiyang Tianyang offset paper in Tianjin was 4450 yuan per ton, unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 450 yuan [37]. - **Cotton**: The spot price was 14772 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 44 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 671 yuan [37]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation The content mainly presents relevant basis charts, but no specific text summary information is provided. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple**: The 1 - 5 spread was - 513, with a month - on - month decrease of 54 and a year - on - year decrease of 123. It is expected to fluctuate and decline, and it is recommended to short at high levels [56]. - **Red Dates**: The 9 - 1 spread was 125, with a month - on - month increase of 150 and a year - on - year decrease of 240. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [56]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 spread was 43, with a month - on - month increase of 1 and a year - on - year increase of 27. It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [56]. - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 spread was - 40, with a month - on - month increase of 20 and a year - on - year increase of 30. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to short at high levels [56]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation The content mainly presents relevant positioning charts, but no specific text summary information is provided. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Apple**: The number of warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year [89]. - **Red Dates**: The number of warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year [89]. - **Sugar**: The number of warehouse receipts was 8313, a month - on - month decrease of 63 and a year - on - year decrease of 1344 [89]. - **Pulp**: The number of warehouse receipts was 226269, a month - on - month decrease of 141 and a year - on - year decrease of 164017 [89]. - **Cotton**: The number of warehouse receipts was 2565, a month - on - month decrease of 14 and a year - on - year decrease of 1109 [89]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data The content mainly presents relevant option charts, but no specific text summary information is provided.

Core Insights - Södra, Sweden's largest forest industry group, has announced the elimination of 200 positions due to restructuring in response to global uncertainty affecting demand and pricing [1][2] - The company cited rapid currency fluctuations, geopolitical uncertainty, and an imbalance between raw material prices and product sales prices as factors negatively impacting profitability [1] Company Actions - The redundancy notices will affect all three of Södra's pulp mills located in Mönsterås, Mörrum, and Värö, as well as its corporate office in Växjö [2] - Södra's president and CEO, Lotta Lyrå, emphasized the need for decisive action to strengthen the company's long-term position while ensuring support for affected employees during the transition [3] Strategic Focus - Södra aims to continue investing in its operations and developing its offerings to provide competitive prices for forest raw materials supplied by its members [3] - The cooperative's mission includes renewing and refining the value of the forest estate, requiring competitiveness across the entire value chain and operations [4] Collaboration and Innovation - Södra has been collaborating with Lenzing since 2011 to develop wood-based textile pulp, with a recent focus on integrating textile recycling into their partnership [5][6] - The partnership aims to produce up to 60,000 tons of product made with 50% recycled cotton and 50% wood pulp, highlighting the importance of sustainable practices in the industry [5]

Core Insights - Kadant Inc. (KAI) has completed the acquisition of Clyde Industries Holdings, Inc. for approximately $175 million in cash, funded through its revolving credit facility [1][8] - The acquisition is expected to enhance KAI's industrial processing offerings and strengthen its position in the pulp and paper, energy, and general industries [3][8] Company Overview - Clyde Industries, based in Atlanta, GA, specializes in boiler efficiency solutions for the pulp and paper industries, employing around 400 people and generating revenues of approximately $92 million for the fiscal year ending February 2025 [2][8] - The integration of Clyde Industries will be part of KAI's Industrial Processing segment, which has experienced a 16.5% year-over-year revenue decline to $95.9 million in Q2 2025 [3][8] Market Performance - Kadant has a market capitalization of $3.5 billion and currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [4] - Over the past three months, KAI's shares have decreased by 9.8%, while the industry has grown by 0.6% [5]

Argentine pulp and paper manufacturer Celulosa files for bankruptcy protection, blaming Javier Milei’s government for creating a bad business environment for local industry. https://t.co/NgdXNRXtkK ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on pulp is "oscillation", with a trading strategy of "11 - 1 positive spread arbitrage" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are expected to oscillate due to rising foreign market quotes, low pulp futures valuation, and weak commodity macro - sentiment [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and an $80/ton increase in Europe and the US. Consecutive increases in foreign market quotes strongly support domestic pulp prices [4] - **Demand**: The monthly output of major finished paper increased, but the prices of mainstream finished paper are at a low level. Some white cardboard and offset paper mills issued price increase letters, and the implementation remains to be confirmed [4] - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2084,000 tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%, showing a de - stocking trend [4] - **Valuation**: The basis of broad - leaf pulp strengthened to over - 1000 yuan, and pulp futures entered a low - valuation range [4] - **Investment and Trading**: The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy is a 11 - 1 positive spread arbitrage, and attention should be paid to commodity macro - sentiment [4] 3.2 PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: Pulp futures fell with the commodity macro - sentiment last week, but the spot price only slightly declined, and the basis strengthened significantly. There is still an upward driving force after the second round of foreign market quote increase [7] - **Spot**: The price of broad - leaf pulp is stable, while the price of softwood pulp decreased. The price of softwood pulp Silver Star is 5700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the price of softwood pulp Buzhen is 4980 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu is 4150 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and a month - on - month increase of 60 yuan/ton [16] - **Foreign Market Quotes**: In August, Arauco's quote for softwood pulp Silver Star was $720/ton, and the supply of broad - leaf pulp Star decreased by 50% with a price of $520/ton. Suzano announced price increases in September 2025 [21] - **Total Holdings**: As of August 29, 2025, the total holdings of pulp futures contracts were 360,884 lots, an 18.35% increase from the previous week; the holdings of the main pulp futures contract were 210,805 lots, a 13.86% increase from the previous week [22] 3.3 PART THREE: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In July, the import volume of pulp decreased. The total pulp import volume was 2.877 million tons, a 5.08% decrease; the softwood pulp import volume was 646,000 tons, a 4.72% decrease; the broad - leaf pulp import volume was 1.351 million tons, a 5.85% decrease; the broad - leaf wood chip import volume was 1.341 million tons, a 3.79% increase [5] - **Domestic Inventory**: The pulp port and warehouse receipt quantities decreased. As of August 28, 2025, the port inventory was 2.084 million tons, a 2.25% decrease; the delivery warehouse inventory was 247,500 tons, a 1.66% decrease [5] - **Overseas Inventory**: Pulp mill inventories increased, and European port inventories decreased. In July 2025, the European port pulp inventory was 1.5275 million tons, a 1.9% month - on - month decrease [46] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Prices**: The prices of four major wood - pulp papers decreased. As of August 29, 2025, the price of offset paper was 4825 yuan/ton, a 3.4% month - on - month decrease; the price of coated paper was 5000 yuan/ton, a 6% month - on - month decrease; the price of tissue paper was 5583 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price of white cardboard was 3930 yuan/ton, a 1.6% month - on - month decrease [51] - **Output**: In July 2025, the output of paper products increased month - on - month. The output of offset paper was 737,000 tons, a 7% month - on - month increase; the output of coated paper was 381,000 tons, a 4% month - on - month increase; the output of tissue paper was 786,000 tons, a 1% month - on - month increase; the output of white cardboard was 1.003 million tons, a 3.5% month - on - month increase [56] - **Inventory**: The inventories of cultural and living papers decreased, while the inventory of white cardboard increased. As of July 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.73 million tons, a 5.8% month - on - month decrease; the inventory of coated paper was 1.178 million tons, a 4.2% month - on - month decrease; the inventory of tissue paper was 390,000 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month decrease; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.2781 million tons, a 4% month - on - month increase [61] - **Offset Paper**: As of August 29, 2025, the total offset paper inventory was 1.728 million tons, a 0.7% week - on - week increase; the output was 204,700 tons, a 3000 - ton week - on - week decrease; the capacity utilization rate was 55.6%, a 0.83% week - on - week decrease; the production cost was 4885 yuan/ton, a 0.05% week - on - week decrease; the gross profit was - 42.74 yuan/ton, a 26.4 - yuan week - on - week increase [67][72][75] - **International Demand**: European pulp demand is recovering, while US demand is weakening. In July 2025, the available days of European softwood pulp inventory were 27.2, a 1.3 decrease month - on - month; the available days of broad - leaf pulp inventory were 24.1, a 2.5 decrease month - on - month. As of July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 82.92%, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease; the inventory - to - sales ratio in June 2025 was 1.06, a 0.01 increase month - on - month [78] 3.4 PART FOUR: Pulp Futures Valuation - **Basis and Spread**: As of August 29, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian softwood pulp was - 38 yuan/ton, an 84 - yuan increase from the previous week; the basis of Shandong Silver Star was 682 yuan/ton, a 104 - yuan increase from the previous week; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 378 yuan/ton, a 72 - yuan decrease from the previous week [88] - **Import Profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp was - 129 yuan/ton, a 76 - yuan decrease from the previous week; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp was - 43 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan increase from the previous week [92] - **Needle - Broad Spread**: As of August 29, 2025, the needle - broad spread in Shandong, China, was 1562 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase from the previous week; in July 2024, the needle - broad import ratio in China was 0.48, a 0.01 increase from the previous month [94]

Group 1: Suzano S.A. (SUZ) - Suzano S.A. is a eucalyptus pulp and paper products company with a Zacks Rank 1 [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 1.5% over the last 60 days [1] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.10, significantly lower than the industry average of 0.50, and possesses a Growth Score of B [1] Group 2: LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) - LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is a passenger and cargo air transportation services company with a Zacks Rank 1 [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 13.6% over the last 60 days [2] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.47, slightly lower than the industry average of 0.49, and possesses a Growth Score of A [2] Group 3: Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. (MEG) - Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. is an environmental services company with a Zacks Rank 1 [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 123.8% over the last 60 days [3] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.17, significantly lower than the industry average of 5.07, and possesses a Growth Score of A [3]

Group 1: Acquisition Announcement - American Industrial Partners (AIP) has signed a definitive agreement to acquire the Global Cellulose Fibers (GCF) division of International Paper, focusing on absorbent fluff pulp for personal care products [1][3] - The transaction is expected to close in Q4 2025, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals [3] Group 2: Company Overview - GCF is a leading producer of absorbent fluff pulp, softwood pulp, and modified fibers, with manufacturing facilities in the U.S., Canada, and Poland [2][5] - In 2024, GCF generated approximately $2.5 billion in annual revenue and employs around 3,300 associates [2][5] Group 3: Market Position and Growth Potential - GCF is well-positioned for future growth due to durable demand tailwinds such as population growth, rising incomes, and increasing customer preferences for product absorbency and comfort [2][3] - The company benefits from a sustainable wood basket, strong end markets, industry-leading quality, and long-term customer relationships [3]

Core Viewpoint - International Paper is undergoing significant strategic changes, including the sale of its Global Cellulose Fibers business to American Industrial Partners for $1.5 billion, aimed at enhancing its focus on sustainable packaging solutions and improving its cost position [2][3]. Group 1: Sale of Global Cellulose Fibers Business - The sale of the Global Cellulose Fibers (GCF) business is valued at $1.5 billion, with adjustments including preferred stock issuance of $190 million [2]. - The GCF business generated $2.8 billion in revenue in 2024 and employs 3,300 people across nine manufacturing facilities [3]. - The transaction is expected to close by the end of the year, pending regulatory approvals [2]. Group 2: Strategic Changes in North America - International Paper is investing $250 million to convert the 16 machine at the Riverdale mill in Selma, Alabama, to produce containerboard [6]. - The company will permanently close the Savannah containerboard mill, Savannah packaging facility, and Riceboro mills, resulting in a net reduction of approximately one million tons in annual containerboard capacity [7]. - These changes will impact around 1,100 hourly and salaried positions, with the company committed to providing severance packages and outplacement assistance [4][5]. Group 3: Management Insights - The CEO of International Paper expressed confidence in the transition of GCF to AIP, highlighting the business's alignment with strategic customers and its potential for long-term success [3]. - AIP's partner noted GCF's strong position for future growth, supported by sustainable resources and long-term customer relationships [3].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported that sales, operational cash generation, and EBITDA were in line with expectations for the quarter [10] - Net debt remained stable at $13 billion, with net leverage increasing to 3.1 times due to a reduction in last twelve months EBITDA to $4.2 billion [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The paper and packaging business in Brazil saw stronger sales volumes and lower costs compared to Q1, with EBITDA growth year-over-year [12] - U.S. operations experienced a 3% price increase quarter-over-quarter driven by product mix and better commercial location, although EBITDA was negatively impacted by lower volumes and higher costs due to maintenance [13][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Brazil, print and write demand rose 6% year-over-year, while uncoated wood-free paper demand remained stable in North America and Latin America but declined 10% in Europe [14] - The U.S. market for boxboard demand was stable, with a 1% increase in demand for SBS boards [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on competitiveness and cost reduction, with expectations of lower cash costs in the upcoming quarters [10] - A deal with Eldorado is expected to provide an internal return of around 20%, allowing for increased production at the Ribba's mill without significant investment [7][8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted a positive outlook for cash cost trends and emphasized the importance of maintaining competitiveness in a challenging market environment [10][76] - The company is preparing for various scenarios in the global market and aims to improve operational efficiency [85] Other Important Information - The company is not currently planning significant new investments but is focused on executing existing projects and deleveraging [10][86] - The company has built inventories in the U.S. to mitigate the impact of 50% import duties imposed by the U.S. government [17] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: What are the changing dynamics in the pulp scenario? - Management noted high order intake levels in China and a supportive environment for price increases due to restocking movements and production recovery [32][34] Question: What is the internal rate of return for the deal with Eldorado? - The expected internal rate of return is around 20%, driven by optimized harvesting and reduced operational costs [40][42] Question: What is the expected CapEx trend for 2026? - The company anticipates a declining trend in CapEx, although specific numbers will be disclosed later [84] Question: How are negotiations regarding the 10% tariff going? - The company successfully negotiated that customers will bear the 10% tariff, ensuring that Suzano will not absorb this cost [95] Question: What is the status of the Kimberly Clark acquisition? - Dedicated teams have been established to plan the carve-out of the new joint venture, with the project progressing as planned [96]

Financial Performance - Sales volume reached 3.3 million tons in 2Q25, compared to 2.7 million tons in 1Q25 and 2.5 million tons in 2Q24[6] - Adjusted EBITDA was R$6.1 billion in 2Q25, versus R$4.9 billion in 1Q25 and R$6.3 billion in 2Q24[6] - Operating cash generation amounted to R$4.1 billion in 2Q25, up from R$2.6 billion in 1Q25 but down from R$4.5 billion in 2Q24[6] - Cash cost ex-downtimes was R$832/ton in 2Q25, compared to R$859/ton in 1Q25 and R$828/ton in 2Q24[6] - Net debt stood at US$13.0 billion in 2Q25, slightly higher than US$12.9 billion in 1Q25 and US$12.0 billion in 2Q24[7] - Leverage was 3.1x in US$ in 2Q25, compared to 3.0x in 1Q25 and 3.2x in 2Q24[7] Pulp and Paper Business - Paper sales were 348 thousand tons in 2Q25, compared to 329 thousand tons in 1Q25 and 270 thousand tons in 2Q24[6] - Pulp sales volume increased to 3,269 thousand tons in 2Q25 from 2,651 thousand tons in 1Q25 and 2,545 thousand tons in 2Q24[12] - Pulp business adjusted EBITDA margin was 52% in 2Q25[12] Financial Management - Notional value of the current portfolio was US$6.8 billion as of June 2025[22]