PresentationHello, everyone, and a warm welcome to the [ OTRAN Air ] Conference. My name is Sarah, and I will be your host for today's roundtable of the Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG, short MM Group. And I'm delighted to welcome the Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications, Stephan Sweerts-Sporck, who will give us some insights just in a moment. And with no further ado, Stephan, I hand over to you.Stephan Sweerts-SporckHead of Investor Relations & Corporate Communications Thank you, Sarah. Hello, an ...

October 7, 2025 09:01 PM GMT China Materials | Asia Pacific 4Q25 Outlook – Equity Implications: Traditional Materials For 4Q, we prefer gold, copper and aluminum, with both macro and micro factors supporting prices. Gold – beneficiary of strong prices and above-peer volume growth: In addition to our constructive view on gold prices, we project Chinese gold miners will see continued double-digit volume growth for 2024-27, ahead of flattish-to-declining production globally. As such, we expect Chinese gold min ...

Summary of the Pulp & Paper Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Pulp & Paper industry is currently facing challenges with paper prices in China reaching year-to-date lows despite increases in pulp prices and improved seasonal demand in the third quarter [1][2] - The average paper utilization rate for virgin-based grades is below 60%, indicating significant challenges in regaining profitability for producers [1] Key Insights - The recent recovery in pulp prices, particularly for hardwood, is expected to be less aggressive than in previous cycles, with historical recoveries typically seeing a 50% increase from the bottom to peak [2] - There is aggressive pricing pressure on softwood, with discounts reported up to $50 per ton from already low levels, while hardwood price increases may not be fully realized due to reduced customer volumes [2] - A significant gap of 7.8 million tons in hardwood-softwood shipments has been observed over the last five years, with softwood shipments declining by 2.8 million tons and hardwood shipments increasing by 5 million tons [3] - The Canadian and Nordic softwood industries are noted to be in a particularly weak position within the cash cost curve [3] Market Dynamics - China's pulp imports decreased by 6% month-over-month and 5% year-over-year in August, with total imports reaching 1.9 million tons, driven by a 7% decrease in hardwood and a 5% decrease in softwood [21] - Despite the decline in imports, year-to-date imports for 2025 remain up by 7%, primarily due to higher hardwood imports [21] - The restart of Chenming pulp operations and ramp-up of other mills may lead to an increase in imports, although this will be limited by lower pulp prices [23] Pricing Trends - China's hardwood domestic resale prices were stable at $513 per ton, while domestic resale prices for softwood ranged from RMB -14 to 10 per ton, equivalent to $631-687 per ton [12] - The overall market dynamics indicate a continued preference for hardwood content among paper producers to reduce costs, which may further impact softwood demand [3] Company Ratings and Financial Metrics - The report includes a comparative table of Latin American pulp and paper companies, highlighting market capitalization, ratings, target prices, and financial metrics such as EV/EBITDA and free cash flow yield [28] - Notable companies include Suzano SA with a market cap of $12.8 billion and a "Buy" rating, and Klabin SA with a market cap of $4.2 billion and a "Neutral" rating [28] Conclusion - The Pulp & Paper industry is navigating a complex landscape characterized by pricing pressures, shifting demand dynamics, and varying performance across different regions and companies. The focus on hardwood content and the challenges faced by softwood producers are critical factors to monitor moving forward [1][2][3]

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - September 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting the current demand and supply dynamics affecting pricing and margins in various sectors including construction, automotive, and metals [1][2]. Key Points Demand Trends - **End-user orderbooks** have shown a month-over-month (MoM) increase as of mid-September, consistent with seasonal patterns observed in previous years [1]. - **Aggregated demand** is driven by positive growth in sectors such as **automotive**, **battery production**, and **metal fabrication**, alongside mild seasonal increases in **construction** [1]. - Traditional sectors like **white goods**, **property**, and **machinery** are experiencing weaker demand [1]. Supply Disruptions - Ongoing **supply disruptions** are noted, particularly in: - **Lithium Lepidolite** production - A correction in excess **coal** production - Tightness in domestic **copper scrap** supply [1]. - The Chinese government has reaffirmed its policy on supply management (anti-involution) as a long-term strategy, which is expected to support overall commodity pricing and margins [1]. Pricing and Margin Outlook - Current demand for **cement** and **construction steel** is reported to be 1-6% lower year-over-year (YoY), while **copper** and **aluminium** demand is down 5-7% YoY. In contrast, **flat steel** demand has increased by 3% YoY [1]. - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for **aluminium** and **copper**, while **steel**, **coal**, and **lithium** prices have softened, with **cement** prices remaining stable [1]. Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicates that **52%** of respondents in downstream sectors reported an improvement in orderbook trends for August, while **32%** of basic materials producers noted similar improvements [2]. - Conversely, **9%** of downstream respondents and **16%** of basic materials producers indicated a decline in orderbook trends [2]. Additional Insights - The report includes detailed snapshots of downstream demand across various sectors, including infrastructure, property, traditional manufacturing, advanced manufacturing, and exports [7]. - Specific commodity analyses cover **steel**, **coal**, **cement**, **aluminium**, **copper**, and **lithium**, providing insights into their respective demand and pricing trends [7]. Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is currently experiencing a complex interplay of steady demand growth in certain sectors and ongoing supply disruptions, which collectively influence pricing and margin expectations. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing supply and pricing dynamics [1][2].

Group 1 - ODP Corporation, owner of Office Depot and OfficeMax, has agreed to be taken private by Atlas Holdings for approximately $1 billion, with Atlas paying $28 per share, representing a 34% premium to the closing share price on September 19 [1][2] - The transaction is expected to close by the end of the year, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals [2] - ODP's CEO highlighted that Atlas brings industry understanding and operational expertise that will enhance ODP's B2B growth initiatives [3] Group 2 - Investors view the deal as positive but surprising due to ODP's history of unsuccessful merger attempts with Staples, which were blocked by the Federal Trade Commission [4][5] - ODP has faced pressure from activist investors and increased competition from e-commerce companies like Amazon and Walmart, leading to a decline in its market cap [6] - ODP operates around 830 stores, indicating its significant presence in the office supply retail market [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview Basic Materials - China - **Copper and Gold Prices**: LME copper price increased by 1.1% WoW to US$9,822/t, while the China price rose by 0.6% WoW to RMB79,450/t, driven by expectations of a rate cut [1][33]. - **Aluminum Prices**: LME aluminum price decreased by 0.3% WoW to US$2,618/t, with the China price slightly increasing by 0.1% WoW to RMB20,730/t [1][44]. - **Gold Prices**: COMEX gold spot price rose by 1% WoW to US$3,407/oz [1][52]. - **Lithium Prices**: Average price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 5.1% WoW to RMB79.7k/t, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.8% WoW to RMB76.9k/t [1][56]. Steel Industry - **Steel Prices and Margins**: Rebar price decreased by 0.1% WoW to RMB3,266/t, while HRC price increased by 0.3% WoW to RMB3,466/t. Iron ore price rose by 3% WoW due to expectations of a lower Fed rate [2][64]. - **Cash Margins**: Spot rebar cash margin shrank by RMB55/t WoW to -RMB34/t, and HRC cash margin decreased by RMB28/t WoW to -RMB125/t [2][75]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: Finished steel products inventory increased by 1.9% WoW to 14.7 million tons, and apparent consumption rose by 0.6% WoW to 8.6 million tons [2][85]. Cement Industry - **Cement Prices**: Average national cement price increased by 0.35% WoW to RMB327/t, with a notable increase in Ningxia by RMB30/t [3][88]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Nationwide shipment ratio decreased by 0.6ppt WoW to 41.6%, while inventory ratio was at 60.5%, down 1.1ppt WoW [3][21]. Glass and Paper Industries - **Glass Prices**: National average float glass price decreased by 1.34% WoW to RMB1,189/t due to weak demand [3][99]. - **Paper Prices**: Paper price increased by 0.7% WoW to RMB3,481/t, supported by price hikes from paper mills [3][100]. Solar Materials - **Polysilicon Prices**: N-type polysilicon and granular silicon prices increased by RMB1/kg WoW to RMB51/kg and RMB47/kg, respectively [3][110]. - **Solar Glass Prices**: Prices for coated solar glass remained stable at RMB18.8/sqm and RMB11.0/sqm [3][122]. Additional Insights - **Inventory Trends**: Lithium carbonate inventory at smelters decreased by 11% to 52kt, while downstream inventory increased by 13% to 46kt, leading to a total sample lithium carbonate inventory increase of 3.6% MoM to 142kt [1][60]. - **Market Dynamics**: The steel industry is facing pressure from rising iron ore prices, while the cement market shows signs of recovery despite regional demand declines due to environmental inspections [2][88]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the performance and trends across various sectors within the basic materials industry in China.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported that sales, operational cash generation, and EBITDA were in line with expectations for the quarter [10] - Net debt remained stable at $13 billion, with net leverage increasing to 3.1 times due to a reduction in last twelve months EBITDA to $4.2 billion [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The paper and packaging business in Brazil saw stronger sales volumes and lower costs compared to Q1, with EBITDA growth year-over-year [12] - U.S. operations experienced a 3% price increase quarter-over-quarter driven by product mix and better commercial location, although EBITDA was negatively impacted by lower volumes and higher costs due to maintenance [13][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Brazil, print and write demand rose 6% year-over-year, while uncoated wood-free paper demand remained stable in North America and Latin America but declined 10% in Europe [14] - The U.S. market for boxboard demand was stable, with a 1% increase in demand for SBS boards [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on competitiveness and cost reduction, with expectations of lower cash costs in the upcoming quarters [10] - A deal with Eldorado is expected to provide an internal return of around 20%, allowing for increased production at the Ribba's mill without significant investment [7][8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted a positive outlook for cash cost trends and emphasized the importance of maintaining competitiveness in a challenging market environment [10][76] - The company is preparing for various scenarios in the global market and aims to improve operational efficiency [85] Other Important Information - The company is not currently planning significant new investments but is focused on executing existing projects and deleveraging [10][86] - The company has built inventories in the U.S. to mitigate the impact of 50% import duties imposed by the U.S. government [17] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: What are the changing dynamics in the pulp scenario? - Management noted high order intake levels in China and a supportive environment for price increases due to restocking movements and production recovery [32][34] Question: What is the internal rate of return for the deal with Eldorado? - The expected internal rate of return is around 20%, driven by optimized harvesting and reduced operational costs [40][42] Question: What is the expected CapEx trend for 2026? - The company anticipates a declining trend in CapEx, although specific numbers will be disclosed later [84] Question: How are negotiations regarding the 10% tariff going? - The company successfully negotiated that customers will bear the 10% tariff, ensuring that Suzano will not absorb this cost [95] Question: What is the status of the Kimberly Clark acquisition? - Dedicated teams have been established to plan the carve-out of the new joint venture, with the project progressing as planned [96]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Pulp & Paper Industry Industry Overview - The China pulp market is currently in a fragile equilibrium, with good pulp sales recently but negative macro sentiment affecting trading and growth uncertainties [1][2] - Paper production has decreased by 2% year-to-date, while pulp supply is growing rapidly, leading buyers to perceive no risk of deficit for restocking [1][2] Key Points - **Market Sentiment**: Confidence levels among buyers and sellers are low, limiting significant price movements in the short term. Industry participants are holding onto unclear and potentially unsustainable reasons to support pricing [2][3] - **Price Trends**: Pulp prices are expected to remain relatively flat until the end of summer, but a potential cyclical rebound could occur towards year-end as low prices impact producers' balance sheets [3][19] - **Production and Inventory**: - Pulp inventories at Chinese ports decreased by 2% month-over-month to 2.1 million tons, still 14% above the 5-year historical average [19] - Paper output in China increased by 4% month-over-month and 5% year-over-year in July, with utilization rates remaining flat at 59% [21] Pricing Data - China FOEX hardwood imported pulp prices decreased by $3 per ton to $495 per ton, while domestic resale prices ranged from $488 to $492 per ton [10] - Softwood imported FOEX prices also decreased by $3 per ton to $687 per ton, with domestic resale prices ranging from RMB -27 to 1 per ton [10] Margins and Production Costs - Paper margins in China were flat to down in July, primarily due to a slight decline in paper prices across all grades, despite lower pulp prices partially offsetting this decline [13] - The cash cost curve in China remains deflationary, allowing production to remain resilient at low prices [1] European Market Insights - European containerboard prices were broadly flat in July, with Kraftliner prices up by 2% and Testliner down by 3% [25] - European graphic paper prices decreased, with coated and uncoated woodfree prices down by 2% and 3% month-over-month, respectively [28] Company-Specific Insights - UPM's management indicated a negative outlook for pulp, citing macro uncertainties and declining orders, leading to planned shutdowns of certain mills [34] - SCA's management noted a challenging market for European containerboard, with negative price movements due to oversupply and tariff discussions [35] - Altri's management highlighted that hardwood pulp prices are close to marginal costs and may stabilize soon, with European prices expected to follow China's trend with a delay [35] Latin America Market Data - In Brazil, corrugated box shipments decreased by 2% year-over-year and 6% month-over-month in June, with year-to-date shipments at 2.0 million tons, reflecting a 1% year-over-year decline [36] Investment Ratings - Various pulp and paper companies in Latin America have been rated with target prices and upside potential, with Suzano SA rated as a "Buy" with a target price of $65.00, reflecting a 24.6% upside [38] Conclusion - The pulp and paper industry is facing a complex landscape characterized by fragile market conditions, fluctuating prices, and varying production outputs. Investors should remain cautious and monitor macroeconomic factors that could influence market dynamics.

Financial Performance - Smurfit Westrock reported Net Sales of $7.940 billion[27] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.213 billion[9, 27] - Adjusted EBITDA Margin was 15.3%[9, 27] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow amounted to $387 million[27] Segment Performance - North America's Net Sales totaled $4.8 billion with an Adjusted EBITDA of $752 million and an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 15.8%[29] - EMEA & APAC achieved Net Sales of $2.8 billion with an Adjusted EBITDA of $372 million and an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 13.4%[29] - LATAM's Net Sales were $0.5 billion with an Adjusted EBITDA of $123 million and an outstanding Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 23.7%[29] Capital Allocation and Investments - Capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to be between $2.2 billion and $2.4 billion[30, 45] - Approximately $1 billion was spent across the system, including over $450 million invested in the paper system and over $450 million in the packaging business[23] Synergies and Outlook - The company anticipates a $400 million contribution to Adjusted EBITDA from synergies, with full run rate exiting 2025[37] - Approximately $350 million is expected to be captured in Adjusted EBITDA in 2025, with about $180 million already achieved in H1 2025[37] - Q3 2025 Adjusted EBITDA is guided to be approximately $1.3 billion, and FY 2025 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $5.0 billion and $5.2 billion[37, 45]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported second quarter net income of $242 million or $2.67 per share, an increase from $199 million or $2.20 per share in 2024 [4] - Excluding special items, net income was $224 million or $2.48 per share compared to $199 million or $2.20 per share in 2024, reflecting a $0.28 per share increase driven by higher prices and lower fiber costs [4][5] - Second quarter net sales were $2.2 billion in 2025, up from $2.1 billion in 2024 [4] - Total company EBITDA for the second quarter, excluding special items, was $451 million in 2025 compared to $400 million in 2024 [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Packaging segment, EBITDA excluding special items was $453 million with sales of $2 billion, resulting in a margin of 22.6%, compared to last year's EBITDA of $400 million and sales of $1.9 billion with a margin of 21% [5][6] - The Paper segment reported EBITDA excluding special items of $30 million with sales of $146 million, yielding a margin of 20.8%, compared to $31 million and $150 million in sales in 2024 [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices and mix were $0.95 per share above 2024, with export containerboard prices up $0.03 per share versus last year's second quarter [8] - Export containerboard sales were lower, with a production of 85,000 fewer tons than in 2024 [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced an agreement to acquire the Greif containerboard business, which is expected to provide a strong growth platform for both containerboard and corrugated products [7][10] - The acquisition is anticipated to be completed by the end of the third quarter, subject to regulatory approval [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while corrugated customers remained cautious, there was steady improvement in bookings and shipments as July progressed [15] - The company expects higher corrugated shipments and containerboard production in the third quarter, despite lower export containerboard sales due to the global trade environment [15][16] - Management expressed optimism about potential upside if global trade issues and tariffs are resolved [70] Other Important Information - Cash provided by operations was $300 million in the quarter, with free cash flow of $130 million [13] - The company has a quarter-end cash balance, including marketable securities, of $956 million, with liquidity of approximately $1.3 billion [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about bookings and billings to start the new quarter? - Bookings are trending at 2% over Q2 2024, with a good start compared to last year's strong performance [23] Question: What was behind the better performance in operations? - The company operated at approximately 99% uptime performance, executing efficiently despite some downtime due to demand [25] Question: Can you clarify the impact of export sales on revenue and EBITDA? - The increase in revenue and EBITDA per ton is primarily due to price increases rather than mix changes [29] Question: What is the outlook for e-commerce growth? - Customers in the e-commerce sector are still growing mid-single digits, with more growth expected in the second half of the year [79] Question: How will the Greif acquisition impact recycled mix and customer sets? - The recycled mix is expected to increase from around 20% to approximately 30% post-acquisition, providing better opportunities in the market [86] Question: What is the expected marginal cost of the new debt from the Greif acquisition? - The company is modeling about a 5.5% interest rate on the new debt, resulting in around $100 million incremental interest [100]