CHINA BASIC MATERIALS MONITOR November 2025: more signs of weaker demand Summary: End-user orderbooks remained lack luster on the ground, notably sequential deterioration in whitegoods, renewables and construction, beyond seasonality. Infrastructure further weakened with project start rates at multi-year low level, mostly due to challenged fundings from local government. The decelerating momentum from the trade-in program, high commodity prices, may also contribute to weaker demand in others. Auto remained ...

Accessible version Basic Materials - China Copper & Gold Rebound; Aluminum Margins Improve; Lithium Strong Industry Overview Metals: Aluminum Margins Improve; Gold Rebounds This week, market attention centered on the end of the U.S. government shutdown, which eased risk-off sentiment and supported copper prices. LME copper rose 1.5% WoW to US$10,856/t, while China price gained 1.3% WoW to RMB87,200/t. LME aluminum slipped 0.2% WoW to US$2,830/t, whereas China aluminum price increased 1.7% WoW to RMB21,910/t ...

Forward Looking Statements 2025 Third Quarter Results October 29, 2025 Paper | Packaging | Solutions Smurfit Westrock Q3 | 2025 Results | 2 The presentation includes certain "forward-looking statements" (including within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) regarding, among other things, the plans, strategies, outcomes, outlooks, and prospects, both business and financial, of Smurfit Westrock, the expected b ...

Core Insights - Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.73 for Q3 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.83 by 4% [1] - The company's revenues increased by 6% year over year to $2.3 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.26 billion [4] - The company anticipates a Q4 2025 EPS of $2.40, indicating a year-over-year decline of 2.8% and a sequential decline of 12% [11] Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS increased by 3% year over year, despite missing estimates [10] - Including one-time items, earnings were $2.51 per share, down from $2.64 in the prior year [3] - Gross profit decreased by 0.2% year over year to $504 million, with a gross margin of 21.8% compared to 23.1% a year ago [4] Segment Performance - In the Packaging segment, sales rose 6% year over year to $2.13 billion, with total corrugated product shipments down 1.1% year over year [6] - Containerboard production was 1,255,000 tons at legacy mills and 47,000 tons at acquired mills, with adjusted operating profit of $348 million [7] - The Paper segment's revenues were $161 million, up 1.2% year over year, but adjusted operating profit fell to $36 million from $39 million [8] Cost and Expenses - Cost of products sold increased by 8% year over year to $1.81 billion [4] - Selling, general and administrative expenses totaled $154 million, down from $162 million in the prior year [5] - Higher operating costs, lower production volumes, and increased depreciation and freight expenses impacted overall profitability [2] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - The cash balance at the end of Q3 was $806.4 million, down from $841 million at the end of the prior year [9] Market Outlook - The company expects higher daily corrugated shipments in Q4 but anticipates seasonal cost and mix headwinds [12] - Containerboard production is expected to dip sequentially due to maintenance outages, impacting earnings by 29 cents [12] - The Packaging segment is projected to experience lower prices due to a less favorable seasonal mix [13] Stock Performance - PKG shares have declined by 8.3% over the past year, outperforming the industry decline of 34.0% [15]

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - October 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, particularly construction materials, steel, coal, cement, aluminum, copper, and lithium sectors. Key Points Construction and Demand Trends - End-user orderbooks showed a month-over-month (MoM) increase as of mid-October, aligning with seasonal trends. However, infrastructure construction is deteriorating faster than anticipated, with weakened project start rates. The impact of central government special funding remains unclear based on feedback from construction dealers and producers of cement and construction steel [1][2][3] - Current Chinese demand for cement and construction steel is reported to be **11-18% lower year-over-year (YoY)**, while demand for copper and aluminum is **5-6% lower YoY**. Flat steel demand has increased by **2% YoY** [2][3] Supply Side Dynamics - There have been no significant cuts in steel production, while corrections in excess production and safety inspections in coal continue. Domestic disruptions in copper scrap have deepened [2] - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for coal, cement, aluminum, copper, and lithium, while steel prices have softened [2] Producer Feedback and Order Trends - A proprietary survey indicates that **61%** of respondents in downstream sectors and **26%** in basic materials reported an MoM increase in orderbooks for October. Conversely, **26%** of respondents indicated a lower MoM trend [3] Price and Margin Analysis - Margin improvements have been noted across several materials, including coal, cement, aluminum, copper, and lithium, while steel margins have softened [2] Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the basic materials sector reflects a cautious outlook due to the declining trends in construction and infrastructure projects, despite some positive signals in specific sectors like auto/EV and battery production [1][2] Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the impact of government funding on infrastructure projects, as its effects are yet to be fully realized [1] - The data suggests a potential shift in investment focus towards sectors showing resilience, such as auto/EV and battery production, while traditional construction materials may face ongoing challenges [1][2] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the October 2025 report on the China Basic Materials industry, emphasizing the current demand trends, supply dynamics, and market sentiment.

Core Insights - Packaging Corp. reported revenue of $2.31 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting a 6% increase year-over-year and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.26 billion by 2.17% [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $2.73, an increase from $2.65 in the same quarter last year, although it fell short of the consensus estimate of $2.83 by 3.53% [1] Financial Performance - Segment Sales for Packaging reached $2.13 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $2.1 billion by analysts, marking a 5.9% increase compared to the previous year [4] - Segment Sales for Corporate and Other amounted to $24.1 million, significantly higher than the estimated $17.26 million, representing a 67.4% increase year-over-year [4] - Segment Sales for Paper were reported at $161.2 million, slightly above the estimated $151.38 million, with a year-over-year increase of 1.2% [4] Operating Income - Segment operating income for Packaging was $347.9 million, slightly below the average estimate of $351.75 million [4] - Segment operating loss for Corporate and Other was reported at $-32.7 million, in line with the average estimate of $-32.77 million [4] - Segment operating income for Paper was $35.6 million, which was below the estimated $37.02 million [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Packaging Corp.'s shares have returned -2.6%, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of 1.1% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating potential for outperformance in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 22, with revenue estimates at $2.26 billion, reflecting a 3.4% year-over-year growth, and earnings per share (EPS) estimated at $2.83, indicating a 6.8% increase from the previous year [1][5]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG's third-quarter revenues is $2.26 billion, which shows a growth of 3.4% compared to the same quarter last year [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings is $2.83 per share, representing a year-over-year growth of 6.8% [1]. - PKG has a history of earnings surprises, beating estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 2.9% [3][4]. Segment Analysis - The Packaging segment is expected to report revenues of $2.06 billion, which is a 2.6% increase from the prior year, despite a predicted volume decline of 2.5% [8][9]. - Operating income for the Packaging segment is estimated at $340 million, reflecting a 6.2% growth year-over-year [9]. - The Paper segment is projected to have revenues of $151 million, down 5.4% from the previous year, with an operating income estimate of $38 million, indicating a 1.2% decline [10]. Strategic Developments - The acquisition of Greif, Inc.'s containerboard business, finalized in early September, is expected to positively impact PKG's earnings immediately, contributing to the Packaging segment's performance [7]. Stock Performance - Over the past year, PKG shares have decreased by 2.5%, contrasting with a 34.6% decline in the industry [11].

Core Insights - Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG, referred to as MM Group, is a well-established company focused on producing consumer goods, particularly in the packaging sector [2][3] - The company operates through three divisions, emphasizing its role in printing and producing cartonboard and packaging materials [2][3] Group 1: Company Overview - MM Group specializes in printing consumer goods packaging, which includes products commonly found in supermarkets such as cereals, sweets, and detergents [2] - Since 2022, the company has developed a specialization in Pharma and Healthcare packaging, catering specifically to the needs of this industry [3] - In addition to printing, MM Group is involved in the production of cartonboard, focusing on both recycled and virgin fiber cartonboard [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Traditional Materials in the Asia Pacific region, specifically gold, copper, aluminum, steel, and coal [1][7]. Core Insights and Arguments Gold - **Price and Volume Growth**: Strong prices and above-peer volume growth are expected for Chinese gold miners, with projected double-digit volume growth from 2024 to 2027, while global production is anticipated to be flat or declining. This is expected to lead to strong earnings growth for Chinese gold miners [2]. Copper - **Super Cycle Factors**: A combination of supply disruptions, loose liquidity, and a weak dollar is expected to widen the global copper supply deficit in 2026. The macroeconomic environment is supportive, with abundant liquidity in the US and China, US rate cuts, and a weakening dollar, leading to a bullish outlook for copper equities [3]. Aluminum - **Sustainable Margin Expansion**: The expansion of bauxite supply from Guinea and other countries is leading to an oversupply of alumina globally. China's aluminum capacity is capped at 45 million tons, resulting in higher margins for aluminum smelters, estimated at around Rmb4,000 per ton year-to-date, which is expected to be sustainable. New supply additions for 2025-26 are estimated at 1.6 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively, which is less than the demand growth [4]. Steel - **Production Cuts and Export Strength**: Current steel margins are in the Rmb150-200 per ton range. There is resistance from steel mills and local governments regarding production cuts, which are part of anti-involution measures. Actual cuts are expected to be lower than the previously anticipated 30 million tons, primarily occurring during the winter slow season. Steel exports remain strong as mills adapt to new markets and product types [5]. Coal - **Support for Thermal Coal Prices**: The National Energy Administration's overproduction inspections are expected to reduce coal production in the second half of 2025 to approximately 2.25 billion tons, down 7% quarter-on-quarter and 9% year-on-year. This reduction, combined with the traditional peak consumption season in winter, is expected to support high thermal coal prices [6]. Additional Important Insights - **Price Target Adjustments**: Various companies within the materials sector have had their price targets adjusted based on updated commodity price forecasts. For example, CMOC's price target has been raised to Rmb18.60 from Rmb12.1, reflecting a 6% increase in EPS forecasts for 2025-27 [20]. - **Market Capitalization and Liquidity**: The report includes detailed market capitalization and liquidity data for various companies, indicating a healthy trading environment for the sector [12][14]. - **Long-term Commodity Price Forecasts**: The report provides updated long-term forecasts for commodity prices, indicating expected increases in prices for gold, copper, and aluminum, among others [17][18]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for the traditional materials sector in Asia Pacific is positive, with specific bullish sentiments for gold, copper, and aluminum driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics. The steel and coal sectors face challenges but also show resilience through export strength and seasonal demand.

Summary of the Pulp & Paper Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Pulp & Paper industry is currently facing challenges with paper prices in China reaching year-to-date lows despite increases in pulp prices and improved seasonal demand in the third quarter [1][2] - The average paper utilization rate for virgin-based grades is below 60%, indicating significant challenges in regaining profitability for producers [1] Key Insights - The recent recovery in pulp prices, particularly for hardwood, is expected to be less aggressive than in previous cycles, with historical recoveries typically seeing a 50% increase from the bottom to peak [2] - There is aggressive pricing pressure on softwood, with discounts reported up to $50 per ton from already low levels, while hardwood price increases may not be fully realized due to reduced customer volumes [2] - A significant gap of 7.8 million tons in hardwood-softwood shipments has been observed over the last five years, with softwood shipments declining by 2.8 million tons and hardwood shipments increasing by 5 million tons [3] - The Canadian and Nordic softwood industries are noted to be in a particularly weak position within the cash cost curve [3] Market Dynamics - China's pulp imports decreased by 6% month-over-month and 5% year-over-year in August, with total imports reaching 1.9 million tons, driven by a 7% decrease in hardwood and a 5% decrease in softwood [21] - Despite the decline in imports, year-to-date imports for 2025 remain up by 7%, primarily due to higher hardwood imports [21] - The restart of Chenming pulp operations and ramp-up of other mills may lead to an increase in imports, although this will be limited by lower pulp prices [23] Pricing Trends - China's hardwood domestic resale prices were stable at $513 per ton, while domestic resale prices for softwood ranged from RMB -14 to 10 per ton, equivalent to $631-687 per ton [12] - The overall market dynamics indicate a continued preference for hardwood content among paper producers to reduce costs, which may further impact softwood demand [3] Company Ratings and Financial Metrics - The report includes a comparative table of Latin American pulp and paper companies, highlighting market capitalization, ratings, target prices, and financial metrics such as EV/EBITDA and free cash flow yield [28] - Notable companies include Suzano SA with a market cap of $12.8 billion and a "Buy" rating, and Klabin SA with a market cap of $4.2 billion and a "Neutral" rating [28] Conclusion - The Pulp & Paper industry is navigating a complex landscape characterized by pricing pressures, shifting demand dynamics, and varying performance across different regions and companies. The focus on hardwood content and the challenges faced by softwood producers are critical factors to monitor moving forward [1][2][3]