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SJM vs. POST: Which Food Stock Deserves a Spot in Your Cart?
ZACKS· 2025-07-15 14:06
Core Insights - Food companies are facing increased price sensitivity, uneven volume trends, and challenges to brand loyalty as consumers seek value [1] - Companies that can protect margins, manage input costs, and adapt to changing consumption habits are likely to succeed [1] The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) - SJM is undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on portfolio optimization through acquisitions and divestitures, including the acquisition of Hostess Brands in late 2023 [3][4] - The Hostess acquisition enhances SJM's position in the snacking category, with a 3% year-over-year sales increase in its International and Away From Home segment [4] - Despite growth, SJM's adjusted gross profit declined by 9% year-over-year in the fiscal fourth quarter due to higher input costs and weaker volume [5] - SJM is increasing marketing investments for key brands, leading to a 3% rise in selling, distribution, and administrative expenses [6] Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) - POST is strengthening its position through consistent performance, with Foodservice segment net sales rising 9.6% year-over-year to $607.9 million in Q2 fiscal 2025 [7] - Strategic pricing actions have allowed POST to protect margins amid inflation, offsetting input cost inflation and volume softness [8][9] - POST's recent acquisitions, including 8th Avenue Food & Provisions and Potato Products of Idaho, support a diversified growth strategy [10] - POST benefits from a well-diversified portfolio and disciplined execution, positioning it as a resilient player in the food industry [11] Financial Comparisons - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for POST's fiscal 2025 EPS is $6.63, while SJM's estimate has decreased by 4% to $9.28 [12] - POST trades at a forward P/E of 14.54x compared to SJM's 11.1x, reflecting stronger earnings momentum for POST [13] - In the past three months, POST's stock has declined by 6.9%, outperforming SJM's 8.8% drop, justifying the valuation gap [13] Conclusion - SJM is in a rebuilding phase, focusing on long-term growth through portfolio reshaping, while POST is growing through strategic pricing and disciplined execution [16] - In the current inflation-sensitive market, POST is viewed as the safer and smarter investment choice [16]
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-15 12:05
Albertsons raises its sales forecast for the full year, suggesting that consumers are eating more at home to save money https://t.co/ZDvBN1RFUe ...
Smithfield Foods To Announce Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Results on August 12, 2025
Globenewswire· 2025-07-15 10:45
SMITHFIELD, Va., July 15, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Smithfield Foods, Inc. (Nasdaq: SFD), an American food company and an industry leader in value-added packaged meats and fresh pork, today announced that its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 will be released before market open on Tuesday, August 12, 2025. The company will host a conference call at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss the financial results. A live audio webcast of the conference call, together with related materials, will ...
高温催热广州清凉经济!冰饮防暑品销量暴涨,多元业态抢流量
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-07-15 03:43
"平时都是一两个冰柜,现在十几个冰柜一列排开,我们一楼还有个冷库,全是冰激凌和各种冷冻食 品。"近日,广州出现持续高温天气,炎炎夏日带动"清凉经济"升温,解暑产品消费迎来大涨,有超市 加大冷饮、冰激凌供货力度。 南都记者走访广州夏日消费市场发现,不仅冷饮、冰激凌、防晒、空调等"清凉"商品消费迎来大增,各 大商场也推出夏日特色活动,通过"场景化消费+体验式经济"模式,打造夏日消费生态圈。线上平台如 美团提供的数据也显示,6月,广州地区玩水、游泳消费火热,玩水游泳相关关键词搜索量环比增长 78.8%,订单量增幅超77%;进入7月,广州地区"夜宵团购"订单同比增长超37%。 在高德置地春广场纳凉的市民。 冷饮销量大增 有百货店冰柜由两个增至十余个 "最近冷饮卖得多,尤其是大桶装的冰水。"广州天河领展广场周边的雪柜士多超市店员向记者介绍,从 日常销售情况来看,冷饮的销售相比平日更为可观。7月9日至13日,南都记者走访广州多家超市和便利 店发现,冷饮及雪糕销量呈现出增长态势。 今年国家家电补贴力度不小,空调成为销售火爆的品类,东山百货业务部经理戴崇业介绍,1-6月,空 调销量同比上升超40%。值得一提的是,在东山百货, ...
摩根士丹利:日本股票策略_夹缝压力_在内外力量间寻求避风港
摩根· 2025-07-15 01:58
July 10, 2025 11:50 AM GMT Investor Presentation: Japan Equity Strategy | Japan M Foundation Sandwich Pressure: Seeking a Safe Haven Between External and Internal Forces (July 2025) Key Takeaways Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+ Sho Nakazawa Equity Strategist Sho.Nakazawa@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8926 Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could ...
高盛:中国消费背景平淡,2025 年第二季度盈利风险上升
Goldman Sachs· 2025-07-15 01:58
14 July 2025 | 8:23PM HKT China Consumer Pulse check: Unexciting consumption backdrop with increasing risks to 2Q25 earnings The overall China consumption trend appears unexciting in 2Q25, and we observed sequentially softer trends in multiple sectors including spirits (along with headwinds from policy tightening on anti-extravagance), dairy, sportswear, cosmetics, condiments, and prepared food, though headline numbers (NBS retail sales growth, 618 GMV growth) showed resiliency supported by continuous trade ...
高盛:中国必需消费品_宠物食品_2025 年第二季度预览 -海外短期承压,国内市场不受影响
Goldman Sachs· 2025-07-15 01:58
Investment Rating - The report upgrades Gambol from Neutral to Buy, with a revised target price (TP) of Rmb120, indicating a 25% upside from the closing price on July 10 [9][33]. Core Insights - The pet food industry is experiencing significant growth, with Gambol's domestic sales expected to rise by 32% year-on-year in 2Q25, while the overall market remains fragmented, presenting opportunities for market share gains [2][9]. - The report anticipates a 19% year-on-year growth in Gambol's topline for 2Q25, driven by strong domestic performance despite challenges in overseas markets due to tariffs [1][11]. - New product development and domestic margin expansion are critical for future growth, with Gambol's innovative product offerings expected to capture market share from long-tail brands [3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - Gambol's stock price has declined by 25% since the downgrade to Neutral, but the report suggests this correction is overdone, providing a favorable entry point for investors [2]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit (NP) growth of -2% year-on-year in 2Q25, primarily due to increased expenses related to staff incentives and new factory depreciation [1][11]. Market Dynamics - The pet food market is characterized by a trend towards premiumization, with established brands like Gambol and China Pet Foods leading in sales growth [8][13]. - The report notes that long-tail brands represent 70% of the market share, indicating a potential for consolidation as consumers increasingly focus on food quality and functionality [2][9]. Financial Projections - For 2025E, Gambol's domestic revenue is projected to grow by 34% year-on-year, with a domestic net profit margin (NPM) expansion of 1.2 percentage points [32]. - The report revises the net income estimates for covered pet food companies by 0-5% to account for tariff impacts, while maintaining a positive outlook on Gambol and China Pet Foods [9][32].
拼多多千亿扶持,如何改写产业带源头工厂的转型逻辑?
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-07-15 00:15
Core Insights - Pinduoduo is effectively connecting consumers directly with source factories, eliminating unnecessary markups and ensuring affordability without compromising quality [1][4][9] - The e-commerce industry is not in a stagnant phase; instead, it is poised for growth driven by new consumption patterns and technologies, with platforms like Pinduoduo playing a pivotal role in creating a win-win ecosystem for merchants and consumers [1][4] Group 1: Pricing and Cost Structure - The price discrepancies in summer products can be attributed to the information gap; for instance, a sunscreen shirt costs around 40 yuan to produce, yet is sold for only 49.9 yuan on Pinduoduo due to the elimination of additional costs [2][4] - A basic sunscreen umbrella has a production cost of only 10 yuan, demonstrating that high retail prices often stem from marketing and distribution rather than material costs [3][4] - Pinduoduo's "billion subsidy" and "thousand billion support" initiatives help reduce marketing costs for factories, allowing them to offer products at lower prices while maintaining reasonable profit margins [4][9] Group 2: Employment and Economic Impact - Pinduoduo has contributed to the creation of over 55 million jobs, significantly benefiting women and older demographics, and fostering a community-oriented work environment [11] - Factories supported by Pinduoduo are often located in rural areas, providing local employment opportunities and allowing traditional craftsmanship to thrive in modern markets [10][12] - The platform's support has transformed small workshops into larger factories, enabling local residents to transition from agriculture to manufacturing jobs, thus improving their livelihoods [13]