Investment Rating - The report indicates a dovish outlook for G10 policy rates through 2026, suggesting a significant decline in rates, particularly in the US, where 10-year Treasury yields are expected to reach 4.00% by the end of 2025 and just above 3.00% by the end of 2026 [6][27]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the US dollar is expected to weaken significantly, with the DXY forecasted to fall an additional 9% over the next 12 months to 91, driven by a convergence in US rates and growth to peers, alongside increased FX hedging flows [6][69]. - The report outlines a bearish outlook for global growth, particularly in the US, where real GDP growth is projected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, influenced by tariffs and immigration restrictions [15][23]. - Inflation is expected to moderate globally, with core PCE in the US forecasted to reach 4.5% before declining, while the euro area is projected to undershoot the ECB's inflation target due to sluggish growth [23][34]. Interest Rate Strategy - In the US, Treasury yields are expected to range trade through 3Q25 before declining, with a forecast of 10-year yields at 4.00% by the end of 2025 and a larger decline in 2026 as the Fed is anticipated to cut rates by 175 basis points [3][27]. - The euro area is projected to see the 10-year Bund yield fall to 2.40% by 4Q25 and 2.20% by 4Q26, influenced by more ECB easing than currently priced in [3][35]. - In the UK, 10-year gilt yields are expected to end 2025 at 4.35% and 2026 at 3.80%, with the Bank Rate projected to decline further due to a slowdown in economic activity [41][43]. Currency & Foreign Exchange - The report forecasts continued weakness in the USD, with significant declines against safe-haven currencies such as EUR, JPY, and CHF, as the DXY is expected to fall to 91 by mid-2026 [8][69]. - Specific currency pairs are projected to move as follows: EUR/USD to rise to 1.25, GBP/USD to 1.45, and AUD/USD to 0.69 by mid-2026, reflecting various economic factors [8][69]. Inflation-Linked Bonds - In the US, breakevens are expected to remain elevated until 3Q25 due to tariff-induced inflation, with a tightening forecast around 2Q26 as inflationary pressures begin to cool [9]. Sovereign Supply Outlook - The report anticipates a decrease in net coupon bond supply across the G7, amounting to US$2.72 trillion in 2025, down 5% year-over-year, influenced by fiscal policy uncertainties [53][62].

Investment Rating - The report indicates an overall positive sentiment towards US equities and core fixed income, suggesting an overweight (OW) position in these areas [12]. Core Insights - Equity markets experienced a rally in May, with the S&P 500 gaining 6.3% and the TOPIX increasing by 5.0%. Technology and communication services sectors led the gains, while healthcare lagged with a decline of 3.7% [2][11]. - The Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) shifted to a neutral stance after initially signaling risk-off, with the VIX index reaching three-month lows [4][11]. - Gross issuance in the investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) markets decreased by 12% and 28% respectively compared to the 2024 run rate, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][11]. Market Review & Trends - **Equities**: The S&P 500 had its best May performance since 1990, with total returns of 6.3%. The technology sector outperformed with a 10.3% increase [5][11]. - **Fixed Income**: The UST 10Y yield was reported at 4.4%, with a total return of -1.1% for the month [11][32]. - **FX**: The US dollar depreciated against most developed market currencies, with the DXY index down 0.1% [2][34]. - **Commodities**: WTI Crude oil saw a notable increase of 5.3% in May [2][34]. Valuations - The report highlights that the current P/E ratio for the S&P 500 stands at 23.3, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical averages [27][30]. - The forward P/E for various sectors shows that communication services and consumer discretionary sectors are at 90% and 88% percentile respectively, suggesting high valuations [31][30]. Technicals - The report notes a significant decrease in gross issuance for both IG and HY markets, with a year-over-year decline of 12% for DM IG and 28% for DM HY [3][11]. - The cumulative change in the Fed rate over the next 12 months is projected to be -84 basis points, indicating expectations of rate cuts [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the potential for Asia to achieve a sustainable rebalancing, suggesting that while the current account surplus may narrow, the consumption-to-GDP ratio is unlikely to change significantly, indicating that true and lasting rebalancing may not be achieved [2][8][35] Summary by Sections Current Account Trends - The report details the trends in bilateral current account balances between Asia and the US, highlighting that Asia's trade surplus with the US reached USD 760 billion, accounting for 55% of the US trade deficit [7][12] - It predicts that Asia's current account surplus as a percentage of GDP will narrow, primarily due to a slowdown in trade cycles and potential increases in purchases from the US [7][34] Economic Structure and Growth Model - Asia's persistent current account surplus reflects a manufacturing-driven growth model, with high savings relative to investment [8][24] - The report notes that Asia has maintained a current account surplus for 35 consecutive years, with a historical high of USD 1.1 trillion in Q1 2025, representing 4.1% of GDP [12][13] Investment Position - Asia's international investment position has grown to USD 45 trillion, surpassing both the US and Eurozone [49][50] - The report indicates that since 2018, Asia's holdings in US securities have increased by USD 2.8 trillion, now totaling USD 8.6 trillion, with the share of US assets in Asia's portfolio rising from 37% to 41% [65][72] Future Projections - The report forecasts a slight narrowing of the current account surplus to USD 0.9 trillion (3.1% of GDP) in 2025, down from USD 1.0 trillion (3.6% of GDP) in 2024 [34][36] - It emphasizes that the expected narrowing of the current account surplus should not be viewed as a sustainable rebalancing, as structural changes in savings and consumption patterns are not anticipated [35][66]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry or specific assets [4]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 experienced its best May performance since 1990, indicating strong market sentiment [9]. - US goods imports saw a significant drop of 20% in a month, marking the largest decline ever recorded [9]. - Bloomberg's Fedspeak index has reached its most dovish level in over four years, suggesting a shift in monetary policy outlook [9]. Summary by Sections Equities - S&P 500 forecasted returns range from -15.8% (bear case) to 23.1% (bull case) with a base case return of 19% [4]. - MSCI Europe shows a bear case of -22.8% and a bull case of 23.6%, with a base case return of 16% [4]. - Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) forecasted returns range from -22.1% to 20.2%, with a base case return of 16% [4]. Foreign Exchange - The JPY is forecasted to depreciate to 144 in the bear case and appreciate to 130 in the bull case, with a base case of 143 [4]. - The EUR is expected to range from 1.13 (bear) to 1.25 (bull), with a base case of 1.14 [4]. Rates - The 10-year UST yield is forecasted to range from 4.40% (bear) to 3.45% (bull), with a base case of 4.00% [4]. - UK 10-year yields are expected to range from 4.65% (bear) to 3.95% (bull), with a base case of 4.35% [4]. Credit - US Investment Grade (IG) credit spreads are forecasted to tighten from 88 bps (bear) to 90 bps (bull), with a base case of 130 bps [4]. - US High Yield (HY) spreads are expected to range from 315 bps (bear) to 335 bps (bull), with a base case of 475 bps [4]. Commodities - Brent crude oil is forecasted to range from $64 (bear) to $55 (bull), with a base case of $45 [4]. - Gold prices are expected to range from $3,278 (bear) to $3,250 (bull), with a base case of $2,760 [4]. Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) - The MSI aggregates survey positioning, volatility, and momentum data to quantify market stress and sentiment, indicating a current negative sentiment [50][55]. Cross-Asset Positioning - In US equities, asset managers are net long at 27%, while hedge funds are net short at -7% [63]. - In commodities, positioning shows 25% net long in gold, while 7% net long in Brent [63]. Cross-Asset Correlations - The current global correlation index stands at 43%, indicating a slight increase from the previous month [72]. - Equity correlations are at 70%, while credit correlations are at 80%, reflecting strong interdependencies [72]. ETF Flows - US equities saw a net inflow of $0.7 billion over the past week, while world equities had a net inflow of $0.8 billion [37]. - Bond markets experienced a significant inflow of $15.1 billion, indicating strong demand for fixed income [37]. Volatility Monitor - The implied volatility for the S&P 500 is currently at 17.0%, reflecting market expectations of future volatility [96]. - Major equity markets show varying levels of volatility, with the Nasdaq at 21.2% [96]. Overall Market Performance - Major developed market equity indices posted gains, with TOPIX up 2.4% and NASDAQ up 2% [98]. - Commodity markets generally posted losses, with copper down 3.3% [98].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific assets discussed Core Insights - The report discusses several key debates regarding US assets and their safe-haven status, fiscal expansion, Chinese risk assets, and future Fed rate cuts, indicating a cautious outlook on certain areas while maintaining a positive view on US assets overall [8][22][27] Summary by Sections Fiscal Expansion and Term Premium - Expected fiscal expansion of approximately US$300 billion next year is anticipated to have a marginal impact on the term premium, with most deficits funded by T-bills [9][10] - Only about US$90 billion is expected from new policy changes in the upcoming US fiscal bill [9] Chinese Risk Assets - The report suggests that it is not the right time to become strategically constructive on Chinese risk assets due to ongoing domestic deflation and tariff uncertainties [14][16] Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The expectation of 175 basis points of Fed cuts by 2026 is based on the current restrictive rates and a projected unemployment rate increase to 4.8% by the end of 2026, despite not forecasting a recession [17][20] US Assets as Safe Haven - The report argues that fears regarding US assets losing their safe-haven allure are overstated, as the US stock market capitalization is significantly larger than other markets, and a substantial portion of high-grade fixed income is denominated in USD [22][24][26] Tariff Outlook - The report maintains a base case for tariffs, projecting a 10% baseline for most geographies and 30-40% on China, with various legal authorities available to the US administration to maintain or re-establish current tariff levels [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the consumer goods trade-in program in China Core Insights - China's real GDP growth is projected to be above 5% year-over-year in H1 2025, driven by stronger-than-expected exports and the consumer goods trade-in program [3][4] - The trade-in program, launched in April 2024, has significantly boosted retail sales, with January-April 2025 retail sales averaging 2.5% above the pre-trade-in program trend [3][5][6] - The program's effectiveness is attributed to expanded product coverage and increased subsidies, with the National Development and Reform Commission allocating RMB 300 billion for 2025 [5][6] Summary by Sections Impact of Trade-in Program - The trade-in program has led to a year-over-year growth of headline retail sales improving to 4.7% in the first four months of 2025, compared to 3.5% in 2024 [6] - The expansion of eligible goods categories, including mobile phones and smart home devices, has contributed to the sales boost [8][11] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - There is a large pool of potential trade-in demand for old autos and home appliances, with an estimated RMB 1.7 trillion worth of appliances aged over 8 years [20][23] - However, monthly auto trade-in applications have shown signs of slowing, indicating potential challenges in sustaining the program's momentum [24][30] Future Consumption Growth Areas - The report highlights a shift in policy focus towards services consumption, which currently accounts for 46% of household spending in China, significantly lower than the 60% seen in developed countries [35][39] - Structural issues and cultural factors are identified as barriers to increasing services consumption, necessitating substantial policy efforts for improvement [39][40]

May 27, 2025 10:12 PM GMT Global Macro Commentary | Global May 27 Sharp super-long JGB rally amid speculation for lower long-end issuance; positive EU and US trade developments support US assets; USTs bull-flatten; miss in France CPI; LatAm currencies outperform; Fed's Barkin warns of effects of uncertainty; DXY at 99.58 (0.5%); US 10y at 4.444% (-6.7bp) Please refer to our recent publications and collaborations (Euro Area Rates Strategy: More Room to Go; Hong Kong Macro Strategy, Economics, Property & Bank ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The report focuses on the thematic and sustainability investment landscape in Asia, particularly in China and Japan, highlighting investor interests and regulatory changes impacting these markets [1][2][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investor Interest in Thematic and Sustainability Topics**: There is a strong interest among investors in China and Japan regarding thematic and sustainability investments, with discussions held with over 15 investors in Shanghai and Tokyo [1][7]. 2. **Impact of AMAC Guidance**: The new guidance from the Asset Management Association of China (AMAC) mandates shareholders with over 5% ownership to actively exercise their voting rights, which is seen as a long-term positive for corporate governance in China [7][8]. 3. **Governance Trends in Asia**: The governance theme is gaining traction in China, with lessons from Japan and Korea suggesting that increased global investor engagement could lead to higher valuations [7][9][17]. 4. **US-China Tensions and Sustainability**: Investors are keenly interested in the implications of US-China tensions, particularly regarding carbon markets and regulatory changes in Europe that may affect sustainability investments [7][8]. 5. **Sustainability and Thematic Investing Overlap**: The convergence of sustainability and thematic investing is significant, with a focus on diverse Asia-centric themes, including AI, energy transition, and health care [24][29]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Corporate Governance in China**: The AMAC's guidance outlines 13 matters where voting rights should be actively exercised, which includes issues related to shareholder rights, director elections, and environmental responsibilities [11][12][13]. 2. **Reform Momentum in Korea**: There is a noted reform momentum in Korea, with political commitment to governance reform, which is expected to be an inflection point for the market [23]. 3. **US Tariffs and Clean Tech**: The impact of US tariffs on sustainability and clean technology is under scrutiny, with potential implications for the pace of the US energy transition due to reliance on China for critical minerals [29][35]. 4. **EU Regulations and CBAM**: The incoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is set to start in 2026, which will drive interest in carbon capture technologies, particularly in the cement industry [39][42]. 5. **Defense Sector Exclusions**: There is a trend of easing defense sector exclusions among sustainability funds, indicating a shift in investment strategies in response to changing geopolitical dynamics [39][40]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current landscape in thematic and sustainability investments in Asia, particularly focusing on China and Japan.

Core Viewpoint - Stifel Financial Corp. has completed the acquisition of Bryan, Garnier & Co., enhancing its capabilities in the European technology and healthcare sectors, and aiming to establish a transatlantic advisory platform for long-term growth [1][2]. Company Overview - Stifel Financial Corp. is a financial services holding company headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, providing banking, securities, and financial services through various wholly owned subsidiaries [6]. - Stifel has approximately 10,000 professionals across around 400 offices globally, making it a leading M&A advisor and capital markets firm [5]. Acquisition Details - Bryan Garnier, founded in 1996, specializes in mergers & acquisitions advisory, equity capital markets, and private placement services for European growth companies and institutional investors [2]. - The acquisition allows Stifel to offer a broader array of solutions and deeper market expertise in Europe, with plans to rebrand Bryan Garnier under the Stifel name [2][4]. Strategic Goals - The partnership aims to enhance Stifel's European capabilities and move closer to its goal of becoming the premier global investment bank for the middle market [2]. - Stifel and Bryan Garnier have collectively led over 500 transactions in the European technology and healthcare sectors since 2020 [3]. Leadership Changes - Olivier Garnier, Co-Founder of Bryan Garnier, will become Chairman of Stifel Europe, focusing on expanding the firm's pan-European platform and client engagement [4].

Group 1 - Castellum, Inc. will participate in the "2025 Virtual Tech Conference: Discover the Innovations Reshaping Tomorrow" hosted by Maxim Group LLC from June 3rd to June 5th at 9:00 a.m. EDT [1][4] - The conference will focus on the rapid evolution of technology and its disruptive impact across various industries, including healthcare, drones, consumer IoT, business solutions, and gaming & entertainment [2] - Emerging growth companies will discuss their advancements in Quantum Computing and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to prepare for future opportunities [2] Group 2 - Glen Ives, the CEO of Castellum, Inc., has been invited to present at the conference, highlighting the company's focus on cybersecurity, electronic warfare, and software engineering services for the federal government [4] - Maxim Group LLC is a full-service investment banking and wealth management firm that provides a range of financial services, including investment banking and equity research [5]