(Bloomberg) — Gold hit a record high just below $4,000 an ounce as the US government shutdown, a wobble in technology stocks, and political shake-ups in Japan and France buoyed demand. Bullion rose as high as $3,999.41 an ounce, before paring some gains. December futures in New York — the most active contract — surpassed $4,000 for the first time on Tuesday. Most Read from Bloomberg The US shutdown, now into its second week, has delayed key data, muddying the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutt ...

ab 25 September 2025 Global Research Japan Economic Presentation Japan Economic Outlook 2025-2027: Three Pivots Next 6 months Global and Japanese economy to slow with the US tariff shock Next 2-3 years Cyclical uplift returns with lower uncertainties and advances in technologies This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Japan Co., Ltd.. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 51. Economics Key message (as ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the Japanese economy, expecting a technical recession in H2 2025, with a long-term normalization expected to resume from H2 2026 [5][6][105]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Japan's economy is likely to face a technical recession in H2 2025 due to a significant fall in exports, although domestic demand remains firm [6][105]. - Japan's CPI inflation is projected to decline, while wage growth is expected to maintain an upward trend [6][105]. - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is anticipated to delay its next rate hike until July 2026, with a base case policy rate of 1.5% expected by 2027 [6][105]. - The report discusses the potential for Japan's economy to recover with a forecast of 1% real GDP growth, 2% CPI inflation, and 3% wage growth by 2027 [105]. - Long-term challenges such as demographics and high government debt are acknowledged, but there is optimism for a potential economic turnaround driven by technological advancements and a generational shift in leadership [6][105]. Economic Forecasts - Real GDP growth for Japan is forecasted at 0.1% for FY 2025, 0.9% for FY 2026, and 0.8% for FY 2027 [22]. - Core CPI is expected to be 2.6% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027 [22]. - The report anticipates a decline in Japan's exports, particularly in the automotive sector, due to tariff impacts [16][20]. Sectoral Insights - The report emphasizes the need for increased investment in human capital and enhancement in key sectors such as defense, energy, and IT infrastructure, including AI [6][105]. - Corporate profits and sentiment are strong, leading to robust capital expenditure plans, although inflation-adjusted real capex is subdued due to supply constraints [58]. Global Context - The report notes that the global economy is expected to recover from H2 2026, with Japan's economy normalizing thereafter [6][105]. - The impact of US tariffs is highlighted as a significant factor affecting Japan's economic outlook, with expectations of slower global growth [7][102].