Core Viewpoint - Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is currently perceived as overvalued, trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 7.90x, significantly higher than the industry average of 4.42x and Par Pacific Holdings' (PARR) 4.45x [1] Group 1: Valuation and Market Position - The premium valuation of VLO compared to the industry raises questions about its justification, necessitating a thorough analysis of the company's fundamentals and business environment [3] - VLO's shares have increased nearly 40% over the past year, outperforming the broader refining industry, which saw an 18.5% improvement [12] - Despite the positive performance, VLO's premium valuation may be difficult to justify due to higher capital expenditure needs and a lower dividend yield of 2.73%, compared to the industry's 3.86% [15] Group 2: Refining Business and Oil Prices - VLO is expected to benefit from the current low oil price environment, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices trading below $60 per barrel, significantly lower than a year ago [4] - As a leading refining company with a capacity to process 3.2 million barrels of oil daily, VLO can purchase oil at lower costs, enhancing its production of gasoline and distillates [5] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that global oil inventories will continue to rise, leading to soft crude prices, which will benefit VLO's refining activities [6] - VLO's high-complexity refineries allow it to process cheaper, heavier crude oil, which is advantageous as these types of crude trade at a discount [7][8] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - VLO's refining-heavy business model positions it well to capitalize on the pressure on crude oil prices, similar to competitors like PSX and PARR [9] - Over the past year, VLO's stock performance has outpaced that of PSX, which gained 17.7%, while PARR surged 112.6% [12]

Core Viewpoint - Phillips 66 Limited has agreed to acquire Lindsey Oil Refinery assets and associated infrastructure, which is expected to enhance the company's operations and contribute to UK energy security [1][3][4]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition is pending completion subject to regulatory clearances and follows a bidding process managed by FTI Consulting after the Official Receiver was appointed liquidator in June 2025 [1][2]. - The company has decided not to restart standalone operations at the Lindsey Oil Refinery due to its limitations in scale, facilities, and capabilities, deeming it not viable in its current form [2]. Group 2: Strategic Integration - The acquired assets will be integrated into the Humber Refinery operations, which will improve fuel supply to UK customers and create future growth opportunities for both renewable and traditional fuels [3][6]. - The strategic investment is expected to support hundreds of high-quality jobs and bolster the local economy through site operations and future investments [3][4]. Group 3: Company Background - Phillips 66 Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Phillips 66, operating in the UK for over 60 years and owning the Humber Refinery, which meets the UK's demand for liquid fuels [5][7]. - The company is focused on producing sustainable aviation fuel, graphite coke for electric vehicle batteries, and other transportation fuels, thereby strengthening its refining capabilities and distribution network [6].

Core Insights - GH Research PLC shares increased by 18.1% to $15.64 in pre-market trading following the announcement of an update on its FDA IND status and Phase 3 program for GH001 in treatment-resistant depression [1] Gainers - MKDWELL Tech Inc surged 61.2% to $0.27 after agreeing to repurchase 34,580,000 ordinary shares at $0.203/share, totaling $7 million [4] - Regencell Bioscience Holdings Ltd gained 52% to $31.21 after a previous decline of 2% [4] - Datavault AI Inc rose 26.7% to $1.28 after a 55% increase on the previous trading day [4] - Sidus Space Inc increased by 21.9% to $5.28 following a 38% rise on Friday [4] - Kazia Therapeutics Ltd rose 21.7% to $6.08 after a 27% decline on Friday [4] - Context Therapeutics Inc gained 18.7% to $1.84 after a 5% increase on Friday [4] - Hyperscale Data Inc rose 18.6% to $0.32 after a 49% jump on Friday [4] - PBF Energy Inc increased by 16.7% to $33.30 after providing updates on Martinez refinery operations and 2026 annual guidance [4] - Bioatla Inc rose 16.1% to $0.62 after a dip of more than 5% on Friday [4] Losers - Salarius Pharmaceuticals Inc fell 21.8% to $0.51 in pre-market trading [4] - Gain Therapeutics Inc decreased by 21.4% to $2.50 [4] - SBC Medical Group Holdings Inc declined 18.9% to $3.51 [4] - Polyrizon Ltd dropped 11.7% to $11.24 after a 50% gain on Friday [4] - ChowChow Cloud International HLDG Ltd dipped 10.3% to $0.71 after a 30% increase on Friday [4] - Lavoro Ltd shares fell 9.1% to $1.00 after a 144% jump on Friday [4] - Vicarious Surgical Inc decreased by 7.9% to $2.32 after a 16% gain on Friday [4] - Theravance Biopharma Inc dipped 6% to $17.07 after a 3% decline on Friday [4] - Comcast Corp tumbled 4.6% to $28.18 [4] - Equinor ASA fell 3.6% to $23.66 after a 4% increase on Friday [4]

Core Insights - The overall energy industry is facing high uncertainty due to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices trading below $60 per barrel, significantly lower than a year ago, but Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is positioned to benefit from this crude pricing environment [1][2] Group 1: Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) - Valero Energy is a leading refining company with a processing capacity of 3.2 million barrels of oil daily, allowing it to purchase oil at lower costs and produce end products like gasoline and distillates [2] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global oil inventories to continue increasing, which will likely keep crude prices soft in the near future [2] - VLO's shares have gained 35.1% over the past year, outperforming the composite stocks in the industry, which rose by 16.2% [6] - VLO trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 7.77X, above the broader industry average of 4.34X [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VLO's 2025 earnings has seen downward revisions over the past 30 days [9] Group 2: Industry Outlook - EIA projects the average spot price for WTI in 2026 to be $51.42 per barrel, lower than the estimated $65.32 per barrel for 2025, indicating a continued soft pricing environment that benefits refining margins [3] - Phillips 66 (PSX) and Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) are also expected to benefit from low oil prices, with refining operations contributing significantly to PSX's earnings [4][7] - Par Pacific has a refining capacity of 219,000 barrels of oil daily and benefits from exposure to cheaper Canadian heavy oil, providing a cost advantage [5]

Core Insights - The overall energy business is currently highly uncertain due to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices trading below $60 per barrel, significantly lower than a year ago, but Phillips 66 (PSX) is likely to benefit from this crude pricing environment [1][2] Group 1: Phillips 66 (PSX) Analysis - As a leading refining company, Phillips 66 can purchase oil at lower costs, enabling the production of end products [2] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global oil inventories to continue increasing, which will likely keep crude prices soft in the near future [2] - EIA projects the average WTI price for 2026 at $51.42 per barrel, lower than the estimated $65.32 per barrel for 2025, indicating that Phillips 66 will benefit from the soft oil prices due to its significant refining margins [3] Group 2: Competitors and Market Position - Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) and Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) are also positioned to gain from the ongoing low oil prices, with Valero operating 15 refineries and a throughput capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day [4] - Par Pacific has a refining capacity of 219,000 barrels of oil daily and benefits from exposure to cheaper Canadian heavy oil, providing a cost advantage [5] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Shares of Phillips 66 have increased by 15.4% over the past year, slightly below the 16.2% rise of the industry composite stocks [6] - The company trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 13.57X, which is above the broader industry average of 4.34X [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Phillips 66's 2025 earnings has seen downward revisions over the past 30 days, indicating potential concerns in earnings expectations [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the best Fortune 500 dividend stocks to invest in, highlighting the strong performance of global equities in 2025 and the importance of staying power in the market moving forward [1]. Market Performance - The MSCI All Country World Index rose over 21% in 2025, reaching a record level of 1,024 on December 26 [2]. - In the US, stock gains were primarily driven by earnings growth linked to artificial intelligence and steady consumer demand, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reaching new highs despite concerns about a potential AI bubble [3]. - Heavy capital spending by technology and infrastructure-related companies significantly contributed to the rise of US stocks, even as valuations exceeded historical norms [4]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, expectations remain positive but cautious, with Goldman predicting continued earnings growth supported by AI investment and a favorable monetary environment, while also warning of elevated valuations and market concentration [5]. - State Street emphasized the need for selectivity in investment as markets may react more sharply to earnings results and policy changes [5]. Dividend Stocks Methodology - The article outlines a methodology for selecting the best dividend stocks, focusing on companies with an annual dividend yield over 2% as of December 31 and popularity among hedge funds at the end of Q3 2025 [8]. Company Highlights - **Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX)**: - Dividend yield of 3.70% with 47 hedge fund holders [11]. - Approved a $2.4 billion capital budget for 2026, focusing on midstream natural gas liquids and higher-return refining projects [13]. - Completed acquisition of WRB Refining, enhancing crude processing flexibility [14]. - **The Kroger Co. (NYSE:KR)**: - Dividend yield of 2.23% with 55 hedge fund holders [16]. - Approved an additional $2 billion for share repurchases, adding to a previous $7.5 billion program [17]. - Faced intensified competition and has been adjusting its business strategy, including cost reductions and changes in e-commerce partnerships [19].

Core Insights - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) has reported significant gains in its refining business, driven by strong refining margins, which have supported earnings growth in the third quarter [1][9]. Refining Business Performance - Refining margins have strengthened due to lower crude prices and tighter product supply caused by refinery outages and supply chain disruptions [2][9]. - The company is focusing on high-grading its refinery network and investing in high-quality sites with lower costs and diverse product offerings, resulting in fewer but more efficient refineries [2][4]. Upgrading Refinery Output - ExxonMobil is investing in upgrading its refineries to convert low-value products into high-value products, exemplified by the Singapore CRISP project, which transforms low-value residues into profitable products like lubricant base stocks and diesel [3][9]. Competitors in the Refining Sector - Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) are also benefiting from strong refining margins, with PSX achieving a 99% crude utilization rate in Q3, the highest since 2018 [5][6]. - Valero Energy operates 15 refineries with a combined throughput capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day, allowing it to cater to diverse market needs [7]. Stock Performance and Valuation - ExxonMobil's shares have increased by 12.4% over the past six months, outperforming the industry average increase of 11.2% [8]. - The company trades at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 7.85X, above the industry average of 4.88X [10]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ExxonMobil's 2025 earnings has been revised upward over the past 30 days, indicating positive sentiment [11].

Core Insights - Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) has a market capitalization of $50.3 billion and operates in the energy sector, focusing on petroleum-based and low-carbon fuels, with segments in Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol [1] Financial Performance - Valero is expected to report an adjusted EPS of $3.10 for fiscal Q4 2025, representing a significant increase of 384.4% from $0.64 in the same quarter last year [2] - For fiscal 2025, analysts predict an adjusted EPS of $9.97, a 17.6% increase from $8.48 in fiscal 2024, with further growth anticipated to $12.49 in fiscal 2026, marking a 25.3% year-over-year increase [3] Stock Performance - VLO stock has increased by 37.9% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming the S&P 500 Index's gain of 16.8% and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF's rise of 6.4% during the same period [4] - On October 23, VLO shares rose nearly 7% following the announcement of a stronger-than-expected Q3 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.66, alongside revenue of $32.17 billion and a 44% increase in refining margin per barrel to $13.14, with throughput utilization at 97% [5] Analyst Ratings - The consensus rating for VLO stock is "Moderate Buy," with 12 out of 20 analysts recommending "Strong Buys," one "Moderate Buy," and seven "Holds." The average price target is $186.72, indicating a potential upside of 13.3% from current levels [6]

Core Insights - Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) is positioned favorably in the refining sector, with a refining capacity of 219,000 barrels per day and operations in Hawaii and the Pacific Northwest [2] - The refining environment in 2025 has significantly improved, with U.S. refining margins rising due to supply constraints and increased demand for distillate fuels, leading to a substantial increase in PARR's earnings [3] - The company reported third-quarter 2025 refining earnings of $340.8 million, a dramatic rise from $19 million in the same quarter of 2024 [3] Industry Overview - The refining sector has experienced a boost in earnings in 2025, supported by strong refining margins driven by maintenance and outages, as well as growing demand [3] - Geopolitical tensions and sanctions are contributing to a positive market outlook for refining companies, including PARR, in the fourth quarter [4] Company Performance - PARR is expected to continue benefiting from a supportive refining environment in Q4, with strong margins influenced by geopolitical disruptions and seasonal demand for distillates [4][10] - The company's stock has surged 116.1% over the past year, outperforming the industry average of 15.3% [9] Valuation Metrics - PARR's current valuation stands at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 4.45X, slightly above the industry average of 4.36X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PARR's 2025 earnings has seen downward revisions recently, indicating potential volatility in future earnings expectations [12]

That shows up in crack behavior. In a normal year, diesel cracks widen in the winter as logistics and heating demand overlap.Unlike gasoline, where weak consumer sentiment can soften demand, diesel consumption in late December is tied to physical throughput. Packages still move even if margins are thin. Missed deliveries turn quickly into lost sales, spoiled inventory, contractual penalties, and reputational damage. The demand is locked in by calendar and contracts, not price.Christmas matters because diese ...