Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Capital Goods sector in Europe, highlighting early results from Automation, semiconductor equipment, and Construction exposed peers, indicating a mixed outlook for the sector [2][4]. Key Companies Mentioned - **Siemens**: Concerns about risk/reward based on Yaskawa's results, with expectations of underwhelming guidance for Digital Industries margins in 2Q26 [4][10]. - **Yaskawa**: Reported a 34% YoY increase in motion control orders, but profitability remains challenged due to restructuring and competition [9][10]. - **Atlas Copco**: Positive outlook with expectations to beat on Vacuum orders in 4Q25 and potential for higher QoQ demand in 1Q26 [4][18]. - **Assa Abloy**: Risks noted for the Americas division, with elevated organic growth estimates for 2026 at 4.4% [4][8]. - **Sika**: Reported a -1% organic growth in 4Q25, with negative impacts from the US government shutdown affecting commercial construction [22][23]. - **Geberit**: Organic sales growth of 6.4% in 4Q25, but driven by wholesaler restocking; management expects slight market growth in European new buildings [21][20]. Core Insights and Arguments - The Capital Goods sector shows signs of life, primarily linked to semiconductor and AI-related growth, while traditional industries like Construction remain subdued [1][2]. - Investors are diversifying away from Electrification towards themes like AI, Mining Equipment, and Factory Automation [2]. - A 'quality bias' is maintained across coverage, favoring companies with lower risks of margin execution issues [2]. - The barbell strategy is emphasized, focusing on end-market dynamics and idiosyncratic stories [3]. Additional Important Points - The government shutdown in the US has negatively impacted commercial construction activity, contributing to a deceleration in growth for companies like Assa Abloy and Sika [8][22]. - VAT Group reported a 30% QoQ organic order growth, but this was partially due to order pull-forwards ahead of price increases [17]. - The overall sentiment in the Construction sector remains cautious, with expectations of only slight improvements in demand [21][22]. Conclusion - The Capital Goods sector is experiencing a bifurcated recovery, with strong performance in semiconductors and automation contrasted by challenges in construction and traditional industries. Companies like Atlas Copco and Siemens Energy are positioned favorably, while others like Assa Abloy and Sika face headwinds. The outlook remains cautious but with potential for selective opportunities in the sector [1][4][3].

Core Insights - DEWALT, in collaboration with August Robotics, has launched the world's first downward drilling, fleet-capable robot aimed at enhancing the efficiency of concrete drilling for data center construction [1][3]. Company Developments - The robotic solution has been piloted in 10 phases of data center construction with a leading tech company, achieving drilling speeds up to 10 times faster than traditional methods and reducing construction timelines by 80 weeks [3][7]. - The robot has demonstrated a drilling accuracy of 99.97% across over 90,000 holes, significantly improving construction output and cost efficiency [5][7]. Industry Context - Hyperscalers, which represent nearly 80% of overall data center demand, are projected to invest approximately $7 trillion in data center infrastructure by 2030 to support the growing needs for AI computing [4]. - The introduction of this robotic solution aligns with the rapid expansion of over 400 data centers currently in development globally, addressing the increasing demand for efficient construction methods [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Uganda's economic growth remained robust in FY25, with real GDP growth accelerating to 6.3 percent, driven by strong domestic demand and a recovery in household consumption [29][30] - The external position improved, with a narrowing current account deficit from 7.9 percent of GDP in FY24 to 6.4 percent in FY25, supported by rising export receipts, particularly from coffee and gold [30][31] - Fiscal pressures increased, with the overall fiscal deficit widening to 6.1 percent of GDP in FY25, primarily due to a 23 percent rise in government spending [31][34] - The medium-term outlook is positive, with growth expected to remain broad-based and accelerate as oil production commences, projected to start in FY27 [33][34] - Agro-industrialization is central to Uganda's development strategy, offering significant potential for job creation and economic transformation [36][37] Summary by Sections Part 1: State of the Ugandan Economy - Recent Economic Developments - Uganda's economy experienced broad-based growth in FY25, with total consumption rising by 10.3 percent and a significant increase in government consumption [29][53] - Agricultural value-added grew by 6.6 percent, contributing 24 percent to the GDP increase, supported by favorable rainfall conditions [55] - The external position strengthened, with export receipts surging and foreign exchange reserves rising to cover three months of imports [30][31] - Economic Outlook, Risks and Development Priorities - Growth is expected to remain robust in FY26 and FY27, with fiscal and external deficits projected to improve gradually as oil revenues begin to accrue [33][34] - Risks to the outlook include potential fiscal slippages, delays in oil sector development, and climate shocks affecting agricultural productivity [34] Part 2: Cultivating Prosperity Through Agro-Industrialization - Current Context for Cultivating Future Prosperity - Uganda has significant untapped agro-industrialization potential due to its abundant natural resources and favorable climate [37] - However, agricultural productivity remains low, with challenges such as weak foundations in primary production and limited access to finance and infrastructure [38] - Recommendations for Agro-Industrial Transformation - Addressing challenges requires coordinated investments and reforms to strengthen agricultural foundations, improve infrastructure, and mobilize private sector investments [39][41] - The report emphasizes the need for strategic partnerships and sustained political commitment to achieve agro-industrialization goals [41]

Core Viewpoint - SPDR S&P Kensho Intelligent Structures ETF (SIMS) provides targeted exposure to companies involved in the digital modernization of buildings and infrastructure, focusing on automation, sensing, communications, and enabling software and materials [1] Investment Strategy - The ETF aims to capture revenue associated with smarter construction, efficient energy management, connected utilities, and industrial IoT by maintaining a diversified portfolio across hardware, platforms, and specialized inputs [1] - Return drivers are primarily linked to the secular adoption of intelligent systems and periodic upswings in capital-expenditure cycles [1] Risk Factors - The risk profile is more idiosyncratic than broad market beta, influenced by innovation and procurement cycles that affect revenue dispersion [1] - A key risk to monitor is thematic concentration, as narrower revenue sources and smaller issuers may lead to amplified drawdowns during funding or adoption setbacks [1] Portfolio Role - SIMS can serve as a satellite thematic sleeve, a completion tool bridging industrials and technology, or a tactical overlay aligned with infrastructure investment programs [1] - Likely users include allocators building long-horizon innovation mandates and multi-asset managers seeking targeted exposure to modernization trends within a diversified equity portfolio [1]

Group 1 - German small and mid-sized companies are outperforming large-cap DAX and pan-European Stoxx 600 indexes in 2026, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][3] - Eight out of the top ten performing stocks in the mid-cap MDAX have more than doubled in the past 12 months, with Thyssenkrupp AG rising 235% and Renk Group AG increasing by 180% [3] - The performance of small and mid-cap stocks has improved significantly after a period of underperformance from 2021 to 2024, particularly following the pandemic and geopolitical tensions [3][4] Group 2 - The German economy is showing signs of recovery, with GDP expanding in 2025 after two years of contraction, driven by government spending on defense and infrastructure [4][5] - Increased military spending in Europe is attracting investor attention to defense stocks, while other sectors like biofuels, automotive parts, and construction are also seeing significant gains [5] - A €500 billion infrastructure spending package, along with military outlays, could lead to over €1 trillion in economic stimulus, as stated by the German Finance Minister [6] Group 3 - There is skepticism regarding the effective allocation of the anticipated funds, with concerns that some of the money may be used for budgetary needs or subsidies rather than new projects [7]

北京还将开展稳预期、提信心行动，拟出台2026年推动经济稳中有进的若干举措；陆续发布北京(京津 冀)国际科技创新中心建设方案、支持创新药合同研发生产机构提质增效、促进动画产业高质量发展等 增量政策；力争一季度尽快发布年度高精尖产业发展项目、超高清、"人工智能+""超现场"领域以及消 费新业态新模式新场景试点建设等多领域专项资金申报指南。 资讯编辑：罗莹 021-26093550 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 1月15日，北京市发展和改革委员会公布，北京将聚焦提振消费、扩大投资、壮大产业、拓展增量、稳 定预期、保障民生重点开展六大专项行动，力争一季度"开门红"。 其中，在扩大投资方面，北京将推动160项市区重大项目一 ...

Monetary Policy Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on January 15, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 179.3 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 169.4 billion yuan after accounting for 9.9 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing on the same day [1]. Market Liquidity - The interbank market liquidity has improved significantly, with the weighted average interest rate of D R001 dropping over 2 basis points to around 1.36%. Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system also fell to 1.35%, indicating a slight increase in supply [3]. - The latest overnight financing guarantee rate in the U.S. stands at 3.65% [4]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.63%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [9]. Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank government bonds have mostly decreased, with specific yields for various maturities showing declines, such as the 1-year yield at 1.2425% (down 1.75 basis points) and the 10-year yield at 1.8540% (down 0.30 basis points) [11]. Central Bank Policies - The central bank has introduced a series of policies to support high-quality development of the real economy, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates and an increase in the re-lending quota for agriculture and small enterprises by 500 billion yuan [15]. - The central bank's spokesperson indicated that there is still room for further reductions in reserve requirement ratios, with the current average at 6.3% [15]. Social Financing and Monetary Supply - Preliminary statistics show that the total social financing scale for 2025 reached 35.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.34 trillion yuan compared to the previous year, with RMB loans increasing by 16.27 trillion yuan and RMB deposits by 26.41 trillion yuan [16]. International Monetary Policy - The Bank of Korea maintained its key interest rate at 2.5%, aligning with market expectations, while expressing caution regarding exchange rate fluctuations and geopolitical risks [18]. Bond Market Events - The central bank reported a cumulative net injection of 6 trillion yuan in open market operations for 2025, including a net purchase of government bonds amounting to 120 billion yuan [21]. - The bond financing methods outside of loans accounted for over 50% of the increase in social financing scale, indicating significant progress in financial supply-side structural reforms [21].

Group 1 - The AGC survey indicates that labor challenges are expected to persist in the construction industry through 2026, with 82% of firms struggling to fill hourly craft positions and 80% facing difficulties in filling salaried roles [3][5] - Approximately 60% of respondents reported that projects have been postponed or canceled in the past six months due to these labor challenges [3] - The construction industry is experiencing booming demand for data centers and related power projects, while other sectors face deeper-rooted challenges [4][8] Group 2 - The percentage of firms struggling to fill open positions has reached its highest level in three years, raising concerns about workforce sustainability as experienced professionals retire without adequate replacements [5][6] - Immigration enforcement has impacted workflows, with 33% of firms affected by actions that led to worker absenteeism or subcontractor labor loss [7] - Contractors are optimistic about the data center construction market, with 65% expecting growth in the next 12 months, contrasting with weaker sentiment in transportation, infrastructure, warehouse, and multifamily projects [8]

Core Insights - Granite has been awarded a contract worth approximately $66 million by the California Department of Transportation for a highway improvement project in Nevada County, California [1] - The funding for the project will be sourced from Federal and State allocations and is expected to be included in Granite's fourth quarter CAP for 2025 [1] - The project aims to expand State Route 49 to four lanes with a center turn lane, which will enhance safety, traffic flow, and local accessibility [1]

Group 1: Employment Trends - Companies are hesitant to hire due to uncertainty from tariffs, leading to only 50,000 new jobs created in December, while unemployment slightly decreased from 4.5% to 4.4% [1][5][19] - Worker shortages are prevalent in sectors like construction, healthcare, and hospitality, making it difficult for businesses to fill positions despite having job openings [3][6][14] - Wages have increased, with a 3.8% annual growth, forcing businesses to pay competitive salaries, which adds to the cost of hiring [4][19] Group 2: Economic Dynamics - The current labor market is characterized as a "low-hire, low-fire" economy, where companies are reluctant to expand payrolls or conduct layoffs due to past experiences during the COVID recovery [5][20][21] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges as traditional rate cuts may not stimulate hiring due to ongoing labor shortages, leading to a cautious approach on monetary policy [7][15][21] - Financial markets are reacting to the disconnect between optimistic rate cut expectations and the current labor data, which does not support such optimism [8][22][24] Group 3: Market Implications - Equities, bonds, and precious metals are trading at or near record highs based on expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts, which may not materialize [22][24][25] - If the Fed maintains a cautious stance with only one rate cut, bond yields may rise sharply, impacting bondholders negatively [23][24] - The U.S. dollar has weakened due to expectations of aggressive Fed easing, but if these expectations are adjusted, the dollar may strengthen [26]