2月3日，据北京规自委消息，首钢地产以13.9亿元底价摘得北京市石景山区1609街区新首钢核心区 SS00-1609-0012地块R2二类居住用地，楼面价3.8万元/㎡。该地块占地面积1.66公顷，地上建面约3.66万 ㎡，容积率2.2，北排限高35米，其余区域限高45米。地块位于新首钢板块南部，古城街道，五环至六 环之间，东侧距离地铁11号线新首钢站仅200米。周边有六工汇购物广场、金安环宇荟购物中心、首钢 园、北京冬奥公园等生活配套。 楼面价3.8万元/㎡。 ...

此次调整前，商业用房首付比例通常为50%，商住两用房首付比例通常为45%。（记者 卢薇） 根据《中国人民银行 国家金融监督管理总局关于调整商业用房购房贷款最低首付款比例政策的通 知》，四川市场利率定价自律机制按照因城施策原则，结合当地房地产市场形势变化及各市（州）政府 调控要求，对21个市（州）的商业用房购房贷款政策作出调整——商业用房（含"商住两用房"）购房贷 款最低首付款比例调整为不低于30%。根据新规，各商业银行可在政策下限基础上，结合自身经营情 况、客户风险状况等因素，合理确定每笔商业用房购房贷款具体首付款比例。 记者从中国人民银行四川省分行获悉，2月2日起，四川21个市（州）的商业用房（含"商住两用 房"）购房贷款最低首付款比例调整为不低于30%。 ...

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, specifically discussing trends in home prices and market dynamics in January 2026 [1][8]. Key Points Home Price Trends - Secondary home prices in major cities fell by **0.7% month-on-month (m-m)** and **14.1% year-on-year (y-y)** in January 2026, showing a softer decline compared to previous months [2][14]. - **98%** of the sample cities experienced m-m decreases, but only **9%** saw faster declines, indicating a slight improvement in market conditions [2][16]. - Tier 1 cities reported a milder drop of **-0.3% m-m** compared to **-1.3% in December**, attributed to a pickup in secondary home sales due to mild policy easing [2][5]. Listings and Market Activity - Total listings remained stable, with an average decrease of **0.2% m-m** across approximately **50 sample cities** [3]. - New secondary listings decreased by **10% m-m** but increased by **40% y-y** due to the Chinese New Year (CNY) calendar effect, marking the tenth consecutive month of decline [3]. - Visits to agent shops decreased by **1% m-m** but rose **80% y-y** on average in January, suggesting a seasonal effect [4][11]. Future Expectations - The company expects further home price declines, projecting **8%** and **6% y-y** declines in secondary home prices for 2026 and 2027, respectively [5]. - The sentiment-driven outperformance in the industry is viewed as unsustainable, with expectations of near-term headwinds affecting companies like Greentown, Jinmao, Longfor, and Vanke [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report favors quality companies with credible self-help stories for 2026, such as **CR Land** and **Seazen**, which are expected to benefit from the focus on consumption and supportive policies for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) [6]. - **C&D International** is highlighted as a consolidator in the residential market with an optimized land bank supporting margins and positive earnings growth [6]. Additional Insights - The analysis indicates that **67%** of the sample cities had higher total listings compared to pre-easing levels in September 2024, with about **30%** reaching record-high levels [3]. - The physical market downtrend is expected to continue but at a softer pace, with potential stabilization in tier 1 and select tier 2 cities by the second half of 2027 if the macro environment remains resilient [5]. Conclusion - The China Property market is experiencing a challenging environment with declining home prices and high secondary listings impacting buyer sentiment. The outlook remains cautious, with expectations of continued price declines and a focus on quality companies for investment opportunities.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, particularly the real estate sector and local government GDP growth targets for 2026, which have been slightly lowered to around 5% [1][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Local Government GDP Targets**: Most provinces have maintained or slightly adjusted their growth targets, reflecting a more pragmatic approach rather than a pessimistic sentiment. The average target is around 5.1%, down from 5.4% the previous year [4][6]. - **Real Estate Sector**: There is an increasing narrative of easing in the real estate sector, but no significant measures have been introduced yet. The "three red lines" policy, which previously constrained real estate companies, has seen its practical impact diminish [1][6][7]. - **National Growth Target**: Despite local adjustments, the national growth target is expected to remain around 5%. This is seen as a strategic move to achieve a strong start to the year, allowing for a gradual slowdown later [6][7]. - **Policy Direction**: Future policies are anticipated to be cautious, focusing on targeted demand-side measures to manage the real estate adjustment process. This includes potential mortgage subsidies in cities with strong population inflows and selective easing of purchase restrictions [7][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Economic Fundamentals**: The economic fundamentals are described as stable but not strong. Infrastructure investment has been robust, with government bond issuance reaching a record high of 1.2 trillion RMB in January 2026 [8][10]. - **Export Resilience**: Container throughput has remained stable, indicating that export growth may continue to be resilient [8][18]. - **Consumer Spending**: Consumer demand is lagging, with significant declines in passenger car sales and weak appliance sales, suggesting limited support for consumption growth [8][21][22]. - **Real Estate Transactions**: The overall stability in second-hand housing sales is noted, with weekly transaction volumes remaining consistent [8][25]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the Chinese economy, particularly in relation to local government targets and the real estate sector, while also addressing broader economic indicators.

Group 1 - The A-share market opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.7%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.18%, and ChiNext Index up 1.65% [2][3] - The hardware industry chain related to computing power rebounded, with memory and CPO sectors leading the gains [1][3] - The semiconductor sector showed strength at the market open, with companies like Langke Technology and Purun Shares both rising over 7% [1][3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index up 0.82% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.68% [4][5] - Precious metals saw a significant increase, with spot silver rising 7% to $84.83 per ounce and gold increasing by 4% to $4844.07 per ounce [1][5]

Group 1 - In January 2026, the average price of new residential properties in 100 Chinese cities was 17,114 RMB per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year increase of 2.52% [1] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in the same cities was 12,905 RMB per square meter, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.85% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.67% [1] - The real estate market showed a mixed performance, with cities like Chengdu, Shanghai, and Hangzhou seeing new high-end properties launched, contributing to a structural increase in new home prices, although overall market performance remained subdued [1] Group 2 - The China Index Academy indicated that 2026 has seen clear "stabilizing expectations" signals from policy levels, with measures such as extending housing tax rebates and structural interest rate cuts aimed at boosting market confidence [2] - The real estate policy is entering a new phase focused on "stabilizing expectations and shortening adjustment times," with a potential slowdown in sales due to the Spring Festival in February [2] - Anticipation for a gradual release of market demand in March is supported by the expected increase in promotional activities from some real estate companies before the Spring Festival [2]

Core Viewpoint - Forestar Group (FOR) is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to significant revisions in earnings estimates, indicating a positive earnings outlook and potential for continued stock price growth [1][10]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - The current quarter's earnings estimate for Forestar Group is projected at $0.72 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 12.5% [6]. - Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter has risen by 18.03%, with one estimate increasing and no negative revisions [6]. - For the full year, the earnings estimate is expected to be $3.06 per share, which is a decrease of 7.6% compared to the previous year [7]. - The consensus estimate for the current year has increased by 8.13% over the same timeframe, with one estimate moving higher and no negative revisions [8][7]. Zacks Rank and Performance - Forestar Group currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating strong potential for outperformance based on favorable estimate revisions [9]. - Historically, stocks with a Zacks Rank 1 have generated an average annual return of +25% since 2008, demonstrating the effectiveness of this rating system [3][9]. - The stock has gained 7% over the past four weeks, reflecting investor confidence driven by solid estimate revisions [10].

Performance Highlights - New Yi Sheng (300502.SZ) expects net profit between 9.4 billion and 9.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86% due to rising demand for high-speed optical modules driven by global computing power investments[4] - Han's Chip (688256.SH) anticipates net profit between 1.85 billion and 2.15 billion CNY, turning from a loss of 450 million CNY last year, benefiting from the growing demand for AI computing power[5] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) projects net profit between 9.8 billion and 11.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 89.50% to 128.17%, driven by strong customer investment in computing infrastructure[6] - Runze Technology (300442.SZ) expects net profit between 5 billion and 5.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 179.28% to 196.03%, largely due to non-recurring gains from public REITs issuance[10] Underperformance Highlights - Great Wall Motors (601633.SH) forecasts net profit of 9.912 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 21.71% due to increased marketing expenses and competitive pressures[36] - GAC Group (601238.SH) expects a net loss between 8 billion and 9 billion CNY, turning from a profit of 824 million CNY last year, impacted by fierce competition and increased asset impairment provisions[39] - Xiexin Integrated (002506.SZ) anticipates a net loss between 890 million and 1.29 billion CNY, shifting from a profit of 68 million CNY last year due to structural supply-demand issues in the photovoltaic industry[41] - Baile Tianheng (688506.SH) projects a net loss of around 1.1 billion CNY, down from a profit of 3.708 billion CNY last year, primarily due to increased R&D expenses[42] Industry Trends - Technology-driven sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals are leading growth, with companies like New Yi Sheng and Han's Chip benefiting from strong demand and technological advancements[69] - Cost control is becoming a critical competitive advantage, particularly in the energy and manufacturing sectors, as seen with companies like Datang Power (601991.SH) benefiting from lower coal prices[70] - Traditional cyclical industries such as real estate and agriculture are facing significant downward pressure, with companies like Vanke (000002.SZ) and Tianbang Foods (002124.SZ) experiencing substantial losses due to market adjustments[72]

Group 1 - The Shanghai new housing market entered a traditional sales off-season in January 2026, with both supply and demand showing a relatively weak performance. The total transaction area of commercial residential properties fell to 257,100 square meters, with 1,939 transactions, reflecting seasonal lows [1] - The land market also cooled down, with five residential land plots sold at the base price, indicating a more cautious investment strategy among real estate companies [1] - High-end projects in core areas showed resilience, highlighting a structural differentiation in the market despite the overall sluggishness [1] Group 2 - The top 30 real estate companies in Shanghai achieved a total sales revenue of 24.83 billion yuan in January 2026, with eight companies exceeding 1 billion yuan in sales. China Overseas Land & Investment led with 2.58 billion yuan, followed by China Merchants Shekou and Shanghai Xuhui City Investment [2] - In terms of sales area, eight companies sold over 20,000 square meters, with China Resources Land leading at 40,000 square meters. The top three in equity sales were China Overseas Land & Investment, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land [2] - High-end improvement projects became the absolute mainstay of the Shanghai new housing market, with the top 20 projects generating a total sales amount of 10.82 billion yuan. Anlan Shanghai topped the list with 2.18 billion yuan in sales [3] Group 3 - The land market showed a rational bottoming trend, with a total of 283,700 square meters of various land types launched in January, and 1.65 million square meters transacted. The residential land transaction area was 32,750 square meters, reflecting a cautious attitude among real estate companies in their investment decisions [3] - The market is expected to experience a "small spring" after the traditional off-season, as high-quality land parcels gradually enter the supply sequence. The focus will be on product value extraction in core locations [4]

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, specifically the performance of major property developers in January 2026 and expectations for the first quarter of 2026 [1][2]. Key Points Sales Performance - Contracted sales for the 25 major developers tracked fell **32% year-on-year (y-y)** in January 2026, despite a low base due to the Chinese New Year (CNY) calendar effect [1][2]. - The top 50 and top 100 developers experienced declines of **26% and 29% y-y**, respectively, in January, compared to **-22% and -29%** in December [2]. Divergence in Developer Performance - State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) outperformed other developers with milder declines. Notable performers included: - **China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI)**: +20% y-y - **Jinmao**: +14% y-y - **CR Land**: +0.4% y-y - Conversely, developers like **Sunac**, **Shimao**, **CIFI**, **Midea RE**, and **GZ R&F** reported declines exceeding **50% y-y** [3]. Market Outlook - The physical property market is expected to continue its downtrend in 2026-27, with projected declines of **8% and 6% y-y** in secondary home prices [4]. - A meaningful nationwide housing policy is anticipated to remain muted in the coming months, contributing to fragile buyer sentiment and increased inventory [4]. Investment Sentiment - Recent sentiment-driven outperformance in the China property industry is viewed as unsustainable, with expectations of a sector pullback as results season approaches [5]. - The focus remains on quality names with credible self-help stories, such as: - **CR Land (1109.HK)** - **Seazen (601155.SS)** - **C&D International (1908.HK)**, which is seen as a consolidator in the residential market with optimized landbanks [6]. Additional Insights - The analysis indicates that home prices in tier 1 and select tier 2 cities could stabilize in the second half of 2027 if the macro environment remains resilient [4]. - The overall sentiment in the market is cautious, with expectations of continued challenges for developers, particularly those with weaker brand recognition and fewer saleable resources [5][6].