Core Viewpoint - The performance of the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks is declining, leading to a market rotation towards small and micro-cap stocks, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment and risk appetite [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The "Magnificent 7" stocks have struggled recently, with some like Nvidia facing challenges, while others like Apple reach all-time highs [2][3]. - There is a noticeable rotation of investment from large-cap tech stocks to small-cap and micro-cap stocks, such as those in the Russell 2000, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [3][4]. - The current market sentiment appears to be bullish as investors are moving into riskier assets, including precious metals, as part of a seasonal trend [4][5][6]. Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - Gold has reached a 7-week high, and silver is hitting record highs, indicating strong performance in the precious metals market [7]. - A significant warning sign is noted when precious metals outperform the stock market for an extended period, reminiscent of conditions before past financial crises [9][10]. - Predictions suggest a potential 15% increase in gold prices, targeting around $5,175, and silver could rise to between $68 and $82 [10][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The current environment is seen as a favorable trading opportunity for precious metals, with expectations of explosive price movements in the near term [12][14]. - Homebuilders are also expected to see a modest rally of about 6% as investors seek familiar sectors during uncertain times [17][18]. - The strategy involves identifying trends and managing positions based on market movements rather than attempting to predict market tops or bottoms [20][21]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Outlook - A severe market correction is anticipated in 2026, with predictions of a significant downturn in equities exceeding 20%, while precious metals are expected to benefit from this shift as capital flows out of stocks [24][26][27].

Market Overview - The Dow and S&P 500 indexes advanced 1.3% and 0.2%, respectively, reaching all-time high closings, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3% [1] - Market participants are shifting from technology to rate-sensitive cyclical sectors such as utilities, industrials, financials, energy, materials, and health care due to the recent Fed rate cut and high valuations in the tech sector [2] Recommended Stocks - Five non-tech large-cap stocks are recommended, currently trading below their 52-week highs and at attractive valuations: On Holding AG (ONON), Lennar Corp. (LEN), Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF), Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC), and Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI) [3][9] On Holding AG (ONON) - On Holding specializes in footwear and sports apparel, offering products through various channels [6] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 20.6% and 79.3%, respectively, with a 22% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [7] Lennar Corp. (LEN) - Engaged in homebuilding and financial services, focusing on tech-enabled manufacturing to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [8] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 1.9% and 11.1%, respectively, with a 0.2% improvement in earnings estimates over the last week [10] Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) - Gained market share in investment banking without significantly expanding its balance sheet, which is expected to drive top-line growth [11] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 16.5% and 59.5%, respectively, with a 0.8% improvement in earnings estimates over the last week [13] Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) - Operates a diverse portfolio in traditional and digital marketing, enhancing revenue stability [14] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 3.1% and 8.8%, respectively, with a 2.4% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [16] Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI) - A leading provider of information and technology across various sectors, including law, tax, and financial services [17] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 7.6% and 12.4%, respectively, with a 2.1% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [18]

Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN) will release earnings results for the fourth quarter after the closing bell on Tuesday, Dec. 16.Analysts expect the Miami, Florida-based company to report quarterly earnings at $2.18 per share, down from $4.03 per share in the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for Lennar's quarterly revenue is $9.13 billion. Last year, it reported $9.95 billion in revenue, according to Benzinga Pro.On Nov. 14, Lennar announced the retirement of Jonathan Jaffe, co-CEO and president.Shares ...

Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN) will release earnings results for the fourth quarter after the closing bell on Tuesday, Dec. 16.Analysts expect the Miami, Florida-based company to report quarterly earnings at $2.18 per share, down from $4.03 per share in the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for Lennar's quarterly revenue is $9.13 billion. Last year, it reported $9.95 billion in revenue, according to Benzinga Pro.On Nov. 14, Lennar announced the retirement of Jonathan Jaffe, co-CEO and president.Shares ...

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. is launching a new luxury community named Wilder Ranch in Westminster, Colorado, expected to open for sale in early 2026 [1][3] - The community will feature four luxury collections including townhomes, duets, and single-family homes, with sizes ranging from approximately 1,450 to 3,000 square feet and prices starting from the upper $500,000s to the mid-$900,000s [3][4] Company Overview - Toll Brothers is recognized as the nation's leading builder of luxury homes and operates in over 60 markets across 24 states [9] - The company has been publicly traded since 1986 and is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "TOL" [9] - Toll Brothers has received multiple accolades, including being named one of Fortune magazine's World's Most Admired Companies for over 10 years [10] Community Features - Wilder Ranch will provide residents with a range of amenities including a clubhouse, sports courts, a playground, and a splash pad, all set against beautiful mountain views [3][6] - The community is strategically located near top-rated schools, popular commuter routes, and local shops and restaurants, enhancing its appeal [6]

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. has launched a new luxury home community named Canterbury Meadows in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, featuring the professionally designed Laney model home available for tours [1][2]. Company Overview - Toll Brothers, Inc. is recognized as the nation's leading builder of luxury homes, founded in 1967 and publicly traded since 1986 [9]. - The company operates in over 60 markets across 24 states and the District of Columbia, offering a variety of home types for different buyer segments [9]. Community Features - Canterbury Meadows offers modern two-story home designs with flexible floor plans ranging from approximately 3,029 to over 3,677 square feet, including 4 to 5 bedrooms and 3.5 to 5.5 baths, starting at a price of $1.02 million [2][4]. - The community is strategically located within the Spring-Ford Area School District, providing residents with access to top-rated schools and recreational opportunities [4][6]. Model Home Highlights - The Laney model home features a spacious main living area, a central kitchen, a primary suite with a luxury bath, and additional amenities such as a first-floor office and a finished basement [4]. Design and Personalization - Home shoppers can utilize the Toll Brothers Design Studio to personalize their homes with a wide array of selections, supported by professional design consultants [5]. Location and Accessibility - Canterbury Meadows is conveniently located near major commuter routes, providing easy access to popular destinations such as Phoenixville and King of Prussia [6].

Core Insights - Lennar (LEN) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.23 per share, reflecting a decline of 44.7% year-over-year, with revenues projected at $9.13 billion, down 8.3% from the previous year [1] Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 4.1% in the last 30 days, indicating analysts' reassessment of their initial estimates [1][2] Revenue Estimates - Analysts predict 'Revenue - Financial Services' to be $313.21 million, showing a 2.8% increase from the prior-year quarter [3] - 'Revenue - Homebuilding - Sales of homes' is estimated at $8.76 billion, down 7.8% from the year-ago quarter [4] - 'Revenue - Homebuilding - Sales of land' is expected to be $28.56 million, reflecting a decline of 27.8% year-over-year [4] - 'Revenue - Multifamily' is projected at $158.92 million, indicating a significant increase of 78.7% from the previous year [4] Deliveries and Orders - 'Deliveries - Average sales price - Total' is expected to be $385.77, down from $430.00 in the same quarter last year [5] - 'New orders - Homes' are projected to reach 20,431, compared to 16,895 in the previous year [5] - 'Deliveries - Homes' are estimated at 21,855, slightly down from 22,206 year-over-year [6] - 'Active Communities - Total' is forecasted to be 1,714, up from 1,447 in the same quarter last year [6] - 'Backlog - Homes' is expected to reach 15,022, compared to 11,633 in the previous year [6] Backlog and Dollar Value - 'Backlog - Average sales price - Total' is projected at $390.76, down from $462.00 in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Backlog - Dollar Value - Total' is expected to be $5.88 billion, compared to $5.37 billion in the same quarter last year [7] - 'New orders - Dollar Value - Total' is projected to reach $7.76 billion, up from $7.18 billion year-over-year [8] Stock Performance - Shares of Lennar have decreased by 3.3% over the past month, contrasting with a 0.9% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [8]

Group 1 - Kennedy Wilson announced the acquisition of the Toll Brothers Apartment Living platform for $347 million, which includes an in-house development team and interests in completed properties and assets under development [3] - The acquisition also involves managing 20 apartment and student housing properties with over $3 billion in assets under management, as Toll Brothers plans to exit the apartment business [4] - The deal is expected to create a mutually beneficial pipeline of shared deal flow between Kennedy Wilson and Toll Brothers, with both companies referring housing opportunities to each other [5] Group 2 - The sale price of the Toll Brothers Apartment Living platform has increased to $380 million due to ongoing investments, and the closing of the deal has been delayed to the first quarter of 2026 [7] - Toll Brothers reported earnings of $4.58 per diluted share for the quarter, which was slightly below guidance due to the delayed closing of the sale [7] - Following the announcement of the delayed closing, Toll Brothers' stock fell by 4.8% in after-hours trading [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is at a pivotal moment as it approaches 2026, with constrained supply, easing mortgage rates, and a more accommodative Federal Reserve stance suggesting a potential gradual recovery in housing demand [1][15] Macro Conditions - The macroeconomic environment is mixed but generally supportive, with inflation still above the Fed's target but trending lower, and GDP growth expectations for 2026 revised upward to 2.3% from 1.8% [4][5] - The labor market shows signs of volatility but recent job additions indicate stability, contributing to a more optimistic outlook for household confidence [5] Mortgage Rates and Housing Demand - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has decreased to 6.19%, marking a significant easing in affordability pressures, which could lead to increased demand for new homes [6] - The ongoing supply shortages, particularly in high-growth regions, mean that any improvement in financing conditions could quickly translate into stronger demand for new homes [6][14] Company-Specific Insights Lennar (LEN) - Lennar is well-positioned with a strong operational setup, maintaining volume and efficiency through disciplined pricing strategies, despite facing affordability pressures [7][8] - The company has seen a decline in direct construction costs and improved cycle times, allowing it to manage inventory effectively [8] - Analysts remain optimistic about Lennar's future, with a projected EPS growth of 9.9% for fiscal 2026 [9] Century Communities (CCS) - Century Communities has improved its operations by tightening execution and reducing costs, achieving a 20.1% adjusted homebuilding gross margin in Q3 2025 [10] - The company has expanded its community base and is positioned for growth heading into 2026, despite a challenging demand environment [10][11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 EPS indicates a significant growth potential of 34.2% [11] Green Brick Partners (GRBK) - Green Brick maintains strong profitability with gross margins exceeding 30%, supported by favorable construction quality adjustments [12] - The company has seen a record level of net orders and improved cancellation rates, positioning it well for future growth [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 EPS reflects a slight decline, but the company is well-positioned to expand into new markets [13] Overall Market Outlook - The U.S. housing market remains significantly undersupplied, with structural demand high due to years of underbuilding and demographic trends [14] - The combination of cost discipline, strategic land management, and strong balance sheets among key builders like Lennar, Century Communities, and Green Brick Partners positions them favorably for a potential recovery in 2026 [15]

Core Viewpoint - Lennar Corporation is positioned for potential recovery in the housing market as interest rates show signs of moderation, despite current pressures from high rates and a recent decline in stock value [2][3][4]. Company Overview - Lennar Corporation is a leading homebuilder in the United States, offering a range of homes and financial services, including mortgage financing and title services [1]. - The company is set to release its quarterly earnings on December 16, 2025, with analysts estimating an EPS of $2.23 and revenue of $9.14 billion [1][6]. Market Conditions - The housing market is currently facing challenges due to high interest rates, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.19%, slightly above the 6% level that could stabilize demand [2]. - There are indications that if interest rates continue to fall, it could lead to a recovery in the housing market by 2026 [2]. Stock Performance - Lennar's stock has dropped 32% from its previous high, which may present a potential investment opportunity [3][6]. - The stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 11.43 and a price-to-sales ratio of 0.88, suggesting conservative market valuations that could indicate undervaluation [3][6]. Financial Position - Despite a 6% year-over-year revenue decline due to weak demand, Lennar reported a net margin of 9.5% on home sales in the third quarter [4]. - The company has a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16 and a strong current ratio of 10.36, reflecting a solid financial position that may allow it to navigate current market challenges [4][6]. Earnings Potential - Lennar's earnings yield of 8.75% indicates significant earnings generation from each dollar invested in its stock [5]. - Management is optimistic about a return to revenue growth as interest rates moderate, making the upcoming earnings release and conference call critical for investors [5].