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野村:Meta 在 ASIC 服务器方面雄心勃勃,其 MTIA AI 服务器有望在 2026 年成为一个里程碑
野村· 2025-06-19 09:46
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in AI ASIC servers. Core Insights - The AI ASIC market is expected to grow significantly, with Meta's MTIA AI servers potentially marking a milestone in 2026. The total AI ASIC volume could exceed nVidia's AI GPU volume by 2026 [1][3][12] - nVidia currently dominates the AI server market with over 80% market value, while ASIC AI servers hold approximately 8-11% market value share. However, unit comparisons suggest that Google and AWS's AI ASICs could reach 40-60% of nVidia's GPU volume by 2025 [1][3] - Meta's MTIA AI server is projected to ramp up significantly, with expectations of 1 to 1.5 million units of MTIA V1 and V1.5 by late 2025 to 2026 [10][12] Summary by Sections AI ASIC Market Dynamics - The AI ASIC market is experiencing aggressive growth, with more cloud service providers (CSPs) developing their own ASIC solutions, including Meta and Microsoft [1][3] - nVidia is responding to competition by unveiling NVLink Fusion, which allows inter-chip connections between its GPUs and third-party CPUs, indicating a proactive approach to maintain its market position [2] Meta's MTIA AI Server Development - Meta's MTIA AI server is set to launch its first ASIC (MTIA T-V1) by late 2025, with subsequent versions (V1.5 and V2) expected in mid-2026 and 2027, respectively [9][10] - The MTIA T-V1.5 is anticipated to be significantly more powerful than V1, with a larger interposer size and complex design [9][10] Supply Chain and Component Insights - Key suppliers for Meta's MTIA projects include Quanta, Unimicron, EMC, WUS, and Bizlink, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI ASICs [12][13][14][15][19] - The report highlights the importance of baseboard management controllers (BMCs) in Meta's ASIC AI server development, with an estimated 23 BMCs per rack [17][18] Competitive Landscape - Despite nVidia's current leadership in AI computing, the report suggests that the gap is narrowing as ASIC solutions improve in specifications and performance [3][7] - The specifications of AI ASICs from companies like Google and AWS are catching up to nVidia's offerings, although nVidia still holds advantages in connectivity and ecosystem [7][8]
高盛:ASIC 人工智能服务器及组件强劲增长;2025 年第三季度机型转换
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-11 02:16
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies within the Taiwan Technology sector, including Wiwynn, Wistron, Hon Hai, Gigabyte, and various AI server components [25]. Core Insights - The Taiwan Technology sector is experiencing strong growth in ASIC AI servers and related components, with notable revenue increases reported by key players such as Wiwynn (+187% YoY) and Gigabyte (+108% YoY) [1][8]. - The report highlights a transition in server models expected in 3Q25, with a cautious outlook on rack-level AI server shipments due to macro uncertainties [9]. - The demand for components like liquid cooling, silicon photonics, rail kits, and chassis is anticipated to rise, driven by specification upgrades and the increasing adoption of AI technologies [9][10]. Summary by Sections ASIC AI Servers and Components - ASIC AI servers are showing robust growth, with Wiwynn's revenues up 187% YoY, significantly exceeding estimates [1][8]. - Baseboard-based AI servers also demonstrate strong performance, with Gigabyte achieving 108% YoY revenue growth [1][8]. - Liquid cooling solutions are gaining traction, with AVC reporting 87% YoY revenue growth [1][8]. Market Outlook - The report expresses caution regarding rack-level AI server shipments in the second half of 2025, while maintaining a positive outlook for ASIC and baseboard-based AI servers [9]. - The global market for AI servers is projected to reach 19,000 racks by 2025, indicating a significant growth opportunity [9]. Non-AI Sector Insights - The smartphone supply chain is expected to strengthen in 3Q25, with new high-end models being prepared for launch [10]. - AI PCs are anticipated to see continued penetration, with brands like ASUS and Lenovo leading the charge [10]. Investment Opportunities - Recommended investments include AI server ODMs and brands such as Wiwynn, Wistron, Hon Hai, and Gigabyte, as well as components like AVC, Fositek, and LandMark [11].
高盛:台湾科技行业前瞻-ASIC 人工智能服务器出货量高预期
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-09 05:29
Investment Rating - Maintain Buy on Chenbro, Auras, and E Ink [2] Core Insights - Chenbro's May revenues declined by 7% MoM to NT$1.8 billion, primarily due to FX impact and a high base, but new rack products are expected to support growth in 3Q25 [4][10] - Auras experienced a 20% MoM revenue decline in May due to FX impact and diversification of production sites, but is expected to see growth from liquid cooling adoption and AI server expansion [23][26] - E Ink's April revenues exceeded expectations, with a 50% YoY increase, driven by rising demand for e-readers and e-labels, although FX impacts may affect future growth [42][43] Summary by Company Chenbro - May revenues were NT$1.8 billion, 12% below estimates, with expectations for June revenues to remain stable [4][10] - 3Q25 revenues are anticipated to be supported by new noise-cancellation rack products and increasing market share in ASIC AI servers [4][10] - Earnings revisions reflect a 3% reduction in net income estimates for 2025-27E due to lower revenues and higher operating expenses [11][14] Auras - May revenues fell to NT$1.62 billion, with expectations for June revenues to remain at similar levels [29][30] - The company is projected to see a 19% QoQ revenue growth in 2Q25, driven by liquid cooling components and AI server expansion [23][26] - Earnings revisions indicate a slight increase in revenue estimates for 2025-27E, with a target price raised to NT$825 based on a P/E multiple of 19.9x [41][30] E Ink - April revenues were NT$3.31 billion, 14% above estimates, with a 50% YoY growth attributed to increased demand for e-readers and e-labels [42][43] - Future revenues are expected to be stable, with a projected 15% QoQ growth in 2Q25 [47] - Earnings revisions show a reduction in net income estimates for 2025-27E by 19% due to lower revenue expectations and higher operating expenses [49][51]