Core Viewpoint - The future of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after his term ends in May 2026 is uncertain, with speculation surrounding whether he will remain on the board as a governor or leave the Fed entirely [1][5][12]. Group 1: Powell's Decision and Its Implications - Powell's potential departure could shift the balance of power on the Fed's Board of Governors, currently with three Trump appointees out of seven, potentially allowing the president to exert more influence over monetary policy [6][10]. - The Federal Reserve Act may allow the board's majority to dismiss individual bank presidents opposing rate cuts, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed if Powell were to leave [7][10]. - Powell's decision is complicated by the ongoing legal case involving Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which could affect the board's composition and Trump's ability to appoint new members [8][9]. Group 2: Political Context and Speculation - The current political climate is unprecedented, with President Trump openly seeking control over Fed policy, contrasting with past chairs who transitioned quietly to other roles [3][5]. - Powell's reluctance to disclose his future plans may serve as a strategic move to maintain leverage over the administration, signaling his willingness to stay or leave based on the president's nominee choices [11][13]. - Observers believe that Powell is likely to leave when his chairmanship ends, as staying could invite greater political scrutiny and undermine the Fed's independence [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is considering further interest rate cuts if inflation continues to decline, although there is division among officials regarding recent economic data [2][9]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third consecutive time during its December meeting due to concerns about a weakening labor market, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [5]. - The minutes indicate that most Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members would support further rate cuts if inflation decreases as expected [3][9]. - Some FOMC members suggested maintaining the target range for interest rates unchanged for a period after the recent cut, emphasizing the need to address emerging labor market weaknesses [8]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated that inflation was at 2.7% in November, down from a previous 3% annual increase [6]. - The jobs report following the FOMC meeting revealed that unemployment rose to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021, highlighting concerns about labor market conditions [8]. - Many FOMC members noted reduced risks of tariffs driving inflation higher, while expressing concerns about potential deterioration in the labor market if interest rates remain elevated [9].

美联储12月会议纪要显示，多数官员认为，如果通胀如预期所料随时间推移而回落，进一步降息是合适 之举。 不过，也有一些官员明确表示，他们认为在12月会议之后，利率应当"在一段时间内"维持不变。 12月9-10日联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的会议纪要继续反映出央行内部的分歧，以及最近一次决策的 艰难程度。 纪要称："一些支持在本次会议降息的官员指出，这一决定是在多番权衡之下作出的，他们本可以支持 将目标区间维持不变。" 本月早些时候，官员们以9比3的投票结果，连续第三次将基准利率下调25个基点，至3.5%-3.75%区间。 不过，他们在会后声明中作出了一项细微调整，暗示官员们对FOMC何时再次降息不是很确定。 ...

分组1 - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points was a closer call than it appeared, with some members expressing a preference for no change or a larger cut [1] - There is a debate within the Fed regarding the balance between inflation concerns and labor market conditions, with some members advocating for future cuts if inflation declines as expected [1] - The Fed acknowledges a K-shaped economy, where higher-income households are spending strongly while lower-income households are adjusting to inflation [1] 分组2 - Concerns about persistent inflation are present, with some members worried that the Fed's commitment to the 2% inflation target could be undermined [1] - The labor market is expected to continue softening but may stabilize next year with appropriate policy measures [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is seen as diminishing, but there are still concerns about entrenched inflation and its effects on the economy [1][2]

25 December 2025 | 12:33AM HKT Economics Research China: PBOC strikes a measured easing stance at Q4 MPC meeting Bottom line: The PBOC held its Q4 MPC meeting on December 18th and the statement was released on December 24th. The PBOC struck a measured easing stance, signaling the possibility of easing in the coming months but also a preference for a reactive approach to preserve policy room. The renewed emphasis on intensifying policy adjustments is in line with the tone set at the Central Economic Work Con ...

美国总统特朗普今年"钦点"的美联储理事米兰（Stephen Miran）警告，除非美联储明年继续降息，否则 美国经济将面临衰退的风险。这一表态与多位美联储官员近期的谨慎立场形成鲜明对比，凸显联储内部 在利率政策路径上的深度分化。 美东时间22日周一，米兰在接受采访时表示："如果我们不调整政策，我们将面临日益严重的经济衰退 风险。" 他强调，失业率已经上升到超出预期的水平，这些数据应该会促使美联储决策者向鸽派方向转 变。 米兰同时表示，他尚未决定在明年1月的下次美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议上支持降息25个基点还 是50个基点，但认为可能还需要几次降息。他还说，"我认为短期内不会出现经济衰退"，不过上升的失 业率应促使美联储官员继续降息。 米兰的表态与近期其他的美联储官员截然不同。他讲话一天前，上周日公布的访谈显示，明年拥有 FOMC会议投票权的克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克（Beth Hammack）表示，暂停降息是她目前的基本预 期。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯、波士顿联储主席柯林斯和理事沃勒上周也都表达了更为谨慎的立场。 米兰主张继续降息以防经济恶化 米兰本周一在接受彭博电视采访时详细阐述了他对货币政策的看法。他指出： ...

IMF COFER Data Shows Dollar Decline Is Misleading. Photo by BeInCrypto The US dollar's global reserve share dropped to 56.32% in Q2 2025, but 92% of that decline was driven by exchange-rate effects, not central bank portfolio changes. Currency adjustments show a marginal decline to just 57.67%, indicating central banks largely maintained their USD holdings. The International Monetary Fund's new Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) report provides important insights for crypto ...

Germany’s economy will gradually recover next year and gain momentum in 2027, helped by higher public outlays on defense and infrastructure, the Bundesbank said https://t.co/LdKeW3wu5h ...

Bitcoin (BTC) strengthened as the Japanese yen dropped after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) hiked interest rates as expected. The Japanese central bank raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in roughly three decades, continuing the gradual shift away from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy. In the policy statement, BOJ acknowledged that inflation has held above its 2% target for an extended period due to rising import costs and firmer domestic price dynamics. Howev ...

European Central Bank officials said Thursday the institution is ready to roll out a digital euro after completing technical and preparatory work, confirming at this year’s final press conference that a review of the project is underway, with the European Council and the European Parliament participating. “We have done our work, we have carried the water, but it's now for the European Council and certainly later on for the European Parliament to identify whether the Commission proposal is satisfactory, how ...