Market Overview - The stock market experienced volatility due to President Trump's tariff threats against eight European countries, leading to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's worst performance since October [1] - Following Trump's announcement of a framework for a future deal regarding Greenland, both indices rebounded, but ended the holiday-shortened week down 0.4% and 0.1% respectively [1] Earnings Reports - Procter & Gamble reported mixed results, beating earnings expectations but missing revenue targets, attributed to the impact of the government shutdown [1] - Capital One also delivered mixed results, beating sales expectations but missing on earnings due to higher expenses; the company remains optimistic about long-term growth following recent acquisitions [1] Investment Actions - The company bought shares of Alphabet after a dip, which ended the week down 0.6% [1] - Profits were taken on Dover as it reached an all-time high, realizing a 13% gain on shares bought in May 2024 [1] - Qnity Electronics was trimmed after a significant year-to-date increase of 17.7%, reflecting a cautious approach despite positive outlooks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guy Spier of Aquamarine Capital has made significant sales in his portfolio during the fourth quarter, reflecting a cautious approach amid high market valuations and recent volatility [2][3]. Group 1: Portfolio Adjustments - Aquamarine Capital's fourth-quarter activity consisted entirely of sales, with no new purchases made [3]. - Spier reduced his stake in Berkshire Hathaway by over 30%, which remains the largest holding in his portfolio, now comprising nearly a third of it [3][4]. - The substantial reduction in Berkshire's stake may be more related to overall market valuations rather than a negative outlook on the company itself [4]. Group 2: Specific Stock Sales - American Express saw a significant stake reduction of around 69%, raising concerns about its valuation at a trailing P/E multiple of 23.6 [6][7]. - Mastercard's stake was trimmed by approximately 39%, reflecting a profit-taking strategy, with its trailing P/E at 34 [9]. - Spier cut his stake in Ferrari by 50%, a timely move as the stock has recently declined by nearly 11% [10].

Group 1 - EU retaliation tariffs are back in focus, reviving trade risk and raising concerns about second-order effects on supply chains and margins, particularly for globally exposed companies [1][3] - Industrials and multinationals with European exposure are likely to feel the pressure first when tariff narratives resurface [3] Group 2 - The introduction of credit card APR caps starting January 20 poses a risk for financials, raising questions about margin compression and reduced credit availability [4] - Stocks related to consumer lending and payments, such as SOFI, AXP, COF, SYF, and NU, are reacting to headline risks ahead of any finalized policy [4] Group 3 - The software sector is experiencing a risk-off rotation, with investors selling high-multiple growth names to de-risk portfolios amid policy uncertainty [5] - High-multiple software and data platforms like Snowflake, MongoDB, Salesforce, Adobe, and Datadog are under pressure as investors seek perceived safety and liquidity [5]

Company Performance - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported a net profit of NT$506 billion (US$16 billion) for the October-December quarter, marking a 35% increase year-over-year, surpassing analysts' expectations. The company plans to increase its capital expenditure budget to US$52 billion to US$56 billion for 2026, up from approximately US$40 billion last year [4] - Lam Research (LRCX) saw a 6% increase in stock price, with Stifel forecasting a 10% to 15% increase in wafer fabrication equipment spending for calendar year 2026, translating to a year-over-year increase of US$10 billion to US$15 billion, primarily driven by advanced foundry/logic and DRAM [5] Service Disruptions - Verizon (VZ) restored its network services after a nationwide outage that affected over 171,000 customers, primarily due to loss of mobile signal. The company plans to issue account credits to impacted customers [6][7] New Financial Products - Bilt introduced three new credit cards under the Bilt Card 2.0 name, offering a 10% introductory APR for 12 months. The cards are designed to provide rewards on rent and mortgage payments [8][9] - The Bilt Palladium Card has an annual fee of US$495, offering 2x points on everyday spending and a 50,000 sign-up bonus. The Bilt Obsidian Card, with a US$95 annual fee, offers 3x points on dining and groceries, while the Bilt Blue Card has no annual fee and offers 1x points on everyday spending [10][11]

Company Performance - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported a net profit of NT$506 billion (US$16 billion) for the October-December quarter, marking a 35% increase year-over-year, surpassing analysts' expectations. The company plans to increase its capital expenditure budget to US$52 billion to US$56 billion for 2026, up from approximately US$40 billion last year [4] - Lam Research (LRCX) saw a 6% increase in stock price, with Stifel forecasting a 10% to 15% increase in wafer fabrication equipment spending for calendar year 2026, translating to a year-over-year increase of US$10 billion to US$15 billion, primarily driven by advanced foundry/logic and DRAM [5] Service Disruptions - Verizon (VZ) restored its network services after a nationwide outage that affected over 171,000 customers, primarily due to loss of mobile signal. The company plans to issue account credits to impacted customers [6][7] New Financial Products - Bilt introduced three new credit cards under the Bilt Card 2.0 name, offering a 10% introductory APR for 12 months. The cards are designed to provide rewards on rent and mortgage payments [8][9] - The Bilt Palladium Card has an annual fee of US$495, offering 2x points on everyday spending and a 50,000 sign-up bonus. The Bilt Obsidian Card, with a US$95 annual fee, offers 3x points on dining and groceries, while the Bilt Blue Card has no annual fee and offers 1x points on everyday spending [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Klarna's CEO, Sebastian Siemiatkowski, criticizes the credit card industry as exploitative, urging for more significant reforms to protect poorer borrowers [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Critique - Siemiatkowski highlights that credit card rewards result in a $15 billion annual transfer from poorer to wealthier individuals, with high FICO score consumers gaining $200 and subprime consumers losing $55 each year [2]. - He describes the current credit card system as a "regressive tax" rather than a financial product, emphasizing the need for reform [2]. Group 2: Proposed Changes - President Trump has called for a cap on interest rates at 10%, while Siemiatkowski suggests an even lower cap of 0% [3]. - Klarna has committed to adhering to regulations and typically charges customers at the lower end of the interest rate range, which spans from 0% to 35.99% [4][5]. Group 3: Company Performance - Klarna has experienced significant revenue growth, with a 139% increase in global volume and a 244% increase in the US for its "fair financing" loans over the past year [4]. - The company has expanded its offerings beyond buy-now-pay-later services to include its own credit card [4]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The potential changes in the credit card market have negatively impacted shares of traditional credit card providers [6]. - Analysts warn that proposed interest rate caps could severely diminish earnings from credit cards, potentially leading to reduced lending [6]. - If traditional credit card availability decreases due to these caps, it may enhance the appeal of buy-now-pay-later companies like Klarna and Affirm [7].

Central Banks and Federal Reserve - A group of central banks expressed support for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence for economic stability [1] Trade and Tariffs - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on trade with any country doing business with Iran, impacting U.S. trade relations [2] Interest Rates and Economic Outlook - New York Fed President John Williams stated that interest rates are well-positioned to stabilize the labor market and achieve the Fed's 2% inflation target, highlighting the benefits of the Fed's independence [3] - Market expectations indicate a 95% chance of no rate change and a 5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the January FOMC meeting [2] Stock Market Performance - Wall Street's main stock indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high, driven by gains in data storage companies like Western Digital and Seagate Technology [4] - Walmart's stock rose 3% after being announced as a new addition to the Nasdaq 100 Index [4] - Credit card companies and bank stocks declined following Trump's proposal for a cap on credit card interest rates [4] Earnings Reports and Market Reactions - JPMorgan Chase reported better-than-expected Q4 results, leading to a 0.5% rise in its stock during pre-market trading [16] - Intel and Advanced Micro Devices saw stock increases after being upgraded by KeyBanc [17] Inflation Data and Economic Indicators - The U.S. consumer inflation report is anticipated to show a December CPI of 2.7% year-over-year, unchanged from November, with core CPI expected to rise slightly to 2.7% [6] - New Home Sales data for October is expected to show sales of 716K, incorporating previously delayed September figures [8] International Market Trends - Asian stock markets showed mixed results, with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index closing sharply higher amid speculation of a snap election [11][13] - China's Shanghai Composite Index retreated from a 10-year high, with significant turnover indicating potential market overheating [12]

Group 1 - President Trump's proposal for a year-long, 10% credit card interest rate cap aims to address the current rates between 20% and 30%, potentially benefiting consumers if enacted [1][2] - Industry experts warn that a blanket cap could limit access to credit for higher-risk consumers and shift pricing risks to less regulated alternatives [2] - A Vanderbilt University study indicates that a 10% cap could save Americans $100 billion [4] Group 2 - The proposal has bipartisan support, with claims that it could return significant savings to consumers without severely impacting access to credit cards or rewards programs [5] - Credit card companies may respond to the cap by reducing rewards, with a projected $27 billion decrease in rewards for customers with FICO scores of 760 or lower [6] - Borrowers with lower credit scores would save more in interest than the reduction in rewards, while those with higher scores would retain their rewards [7] Group 3 - The financial impact on credit card companies could lead to reduced revenues, particularly affecting consumers with weaker credit scores [8] - Credit card revenue is derived from both interest revenue and non-interest revenue, indicating potential shifts in financial strategies for companies [8]

Federal Reserve Investigation - A criminal investigation has been launched into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed's Washington headquarters and potential false statements made to Congress about the project's scope [2][3] - The investigation, approved by Jeanine Pirro, includes analysis of Powell's public statements and spending records [3] - The renovation project, which began in 2022, is approximately $700 million over budget and involves modernizing the Marriner S. Eccles Building and another building, both of which have not been comprehensively renovated since their construction nearly 100 years ago [5] Allegiant Travel Acquisition - Allegiant Travel Co. has agreed to acquire Sun Country Airlines in a cash-and-stock deal valued at approximately $1.5 billion, including net debt [8] - Under the terms of the agreement, Sun Country shareholders will receive 0.1557 shares of Allegiant common stock and $4.10 in cash for each share, implying a total value of $18.89 per share, representing a 19.8% premium over Sun Country's closing price of $15.77 [8] Meta's Compliance with Age Restrictions - Meta has removed over 550,000 accounts of Australian children from its platforms to comply with a social media ban for users under 16 [9][10] - The removal included 330,000 users from Instagram, 173,000 from Facebook, and 39,000 from Threads, following the implementation of the ban on December 10, 2025 [10] - Meta has indicated that early data suggests the ban is not effectively improving teen safety or wellbeing, citing inconsistent age-verification measures across platforms [11]

Federal Reserve Investigation - A criminal investigation has been launched into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed's Washington headquarters and potential false statements made to Congress about the project's scope [2][3] - The investigation, approved by Jeanine Pirro, includes analysis of Powell's public statements and spending records [3] - The renovations, which began in 2022, are estimated to be approximately $700 million over budget, with the project involving the expansion and modernization of buildings that have not been comprehensively renovated since their construction nearly 100 years ago [5] Allegiant Travel Acquisition - Allegiant Travel Co. has agreed to acquire Sun Country Airlines in a cash-and-stock deal valued at approximately $1.5 billion, including net debt [8] - Under the terms of the agreement, Sun Country shareholders will receive 0.1557 shares of Allegiant common stock and $4.10 in cash for each share, implying a total value of $18.89 per share, representing a 19.8% premium to Sun Country's closing price of $15.77 [8] Meta's Compliance with Age Restrictions - Meta has removed over 550,000 accounts of Australian children from its platforms to comply with a social media ban for users under 16 [9][10] - The removal included 330,000 users from Instagram, 173,000 from Facebook, and 39,000 from Threads, following the enforcement of the ban on December 10, 2025 [10] - Meta has indicated that early data suggests the ban is not effectively improving teen safety or wellbeing, citing inconsistent age-verification measures across platforms [11]