Group 1 - Dogecoin emphasizes its inflationary model, stating that the fixed annual issuance of 5 billion coins reduces the overall inflation rate [2][3] - The total supply of Dogecoin currently stands at 168.71 billion tokens, with no maximum supply cap [4] - Dogecoin is marketed as a spendable currency rather than a long-term holding asset, contrasting with other cryptocurrencies that utilize coin-burning mechanisms [5] Group 2 - Over the past year, both Dogecoin and Shiba Inu have experienced a decline of approximately 64%, with Shiba Inu showing significantly higher all-time gains compared to Dogecoin [6][7] - Dogecoin's one-year gains are reported at -64.80%, while its all-time gains stand at +16,382.42% [7]

Core Insights - Hedera (HBAR) is currently trading at $0.0923, forming a descending broadening wedge pattern that suggests potential for a bullish breakout, contingent on Bitcoin's performance [1][9] - The Money Flow Index (MFI) indicates a bullish divergence, showing reduced selling pressure as HBAR posted a lower low while MFI recorded a higher reading [2][3] - A confirmed breakout above $0.1012 could trigger significant short liquidations, potentially amounting to $4.34 million, which would enhance bullish momentum [4][5] Technical Analysis - HBAR's immediate resistance is at $0.0938, and a successful breakout requires flipping $0.1005 into support and decisively breaching $0.1071 [9][10] - Clearing the $0.1071 level would strengthen the bullish outlook and open the path toward $0.1300, indicating a recovery from recent losses [10] - Conversely, failure to overcome $0.0938 or a loss of support at $0.0855 could increase downside risk, with a potential drop toward $0.0780 confirming continued consolidation [11] Market Correlation - HBAR has shown increasing correlation with Bitcoin, meaning that HBAR's price movements often mirror Bitcoin's, particularly during declines [6][7] - A brief divergence occurred between June and July 2025, but overall, HBAR's price behavior aligns closely with Bitcoin's trends [7]

Core Insights - Ethereum price is under pressure following a sharp decline, causing unease among investors in the crypto market [1] - Despite entering a historically favorable accumulation zone, on-chain indicators show mixed signals among different holder groups [1] Group 1: Accumulation Zone - Ethereum's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio indicates it has entered an "opportunity zone," defined between negative 18% and negative 28%, where selling pressure typically approaches exhaustion [2] - Historical data suggests that previous entries into this MVRV zone often preceded price reversals, with investors likely to accumulate during periods of deep unrealized losses [3] - Current macro conditions, including liquidity constraints and cautious sentiment, may delay accumulation despite the MVRV suggesting undervaluation [6] Group 2: Holder Dynamics - Short-term holders are regaining influence over Ethereum price action, with the MVRV Long/Short Difference indicating greater profitability among short-term holders compared to long-term investors [7] - A recent decline has reversed the trend of profitability shifting away from short-term traders, increasing the likelihood of renewed downside pressure as these investors tend to sell quickly [8] - Long-term holders, who previously showed steady accumulation, have recently shifted to distribution, indicating reduced confidence among strategic investors [9] Group 3: Price Stability - Ethereum is currently trading at $1,983, remaining above the critical support level of $1,811, but has recently hit a nine-month low of $1,743 [11] - Maintaining the $1,811 support level is crucial to prevent further technical deterioration in Ethereum's price [11]

Core Insights - Solana's price is under sustained pressure, continuing a three-week downtrend with SOL trading near $80, indicating weak investor support and bearish macro conditions [1][12] - The profitable supply of Solana has fallen to 15%, the lowest level since November 2022, suggesting that most holders are currently underwater [2] - Long-term holders (LTHs) are showing signs of weakening conviction, with increased token movement from dormant wallets indicating distribution rather than accumulation [7][8] Market Conditions - The current market conditions differ from historical stabilization phases, as broad market weakness and deteriorating long-term holder sentiment limit the usual recovery effect [3] - A sustained rise in Liveliness, which measures long-term holder activity, indicates eroding confidence and can amplify bearish trends [8] Long-Term Holder Behavior - Signs of LTHs selling became evident in late January when the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) fell below zero, marking capitulation and aggregate losses for long-term holders [9][10] - The last occurrence of LTH's NUPL dropping below zero was in May 2022, which led to widespread distribution before stabilization [10] - The delay in the spike of Liveliness after LTHs capitulated suggests that holders initially waited for a rebound, but ultimately sold as prices continued to decline [11] Price Trends - Solana's price remains within a defined downtrend, holding just above the $79 support level, with sustained weakness in investor demand increasing the risk of a breakdown below this threshold [12]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a strong performance in digital currency concept stocks, with notable gains including Yuyin Co., which hit the daily limit, and Guoxin Technology, which rose over 5% [1] - Hong Kong's Chief Executive, John Lee, emphasized the city's growing status as a global center for Web3 and cryptocurrency innovation during his speech at the Consensus Hong Kong conference [1] - A key initiative mentioned is the implementation of the Stablecoin Regulation in August last year, establishing a licensing system for issuers of fiat-backed stablecoins in Hong Kong [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is actively processing license applications, with the first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses expected to be issued next month [1] - The goal is to position Hong Kong as a global innovation center for digital assets [1] - The digital currency sector's individual stocks have shown significant year-to-date performance, with Guoxin Technology at a 46.13% increase and Dongfang Guoxin at 32.88% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, dropping 22% in the past week, raising concerns about the future of cryptocurrency and investor sentiment [1][2]. Market Performance - The current sell-off in Bitcoin is exacerbated by a broader collapse in risk assets, particularly in the tech sector, indicating a correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks during downturns [2][3]. - Despite expectations that Bitcoin would act as a safe haven, it has not performed as such, with precious metals like gold and silver gaining value while Bitcoin's price continues to fall [3]. Sentiment and Predictions - Notable figures, such as Michael Burry, have expressed skepticism about Bitcoin's utility, contributing to negative sentiment in the market [4]. - The prevailing atmosphere is one of panic and resignation among investors, with many fearing the potential end of cryptocurrency [1]. Investment Thesis - Despite the current price decline, the fundamental investment thesis for Bitcoin remains intact, with the production rate of new Bitcoin expected to decrease over time, suggesting long-term price appreciation potential [5][6]. - The best time to invest in Bitcoin is often when market sentiment is low, and dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is recommended as a strategy to mitigate the emotional impact of investing during downturns [6][7].

Group 1: Dogecoin Overview - Dogecoin's active addresses surged 36% to over 71,400, indicating increased network participation despite a 3% price drop to $0.10258 [1][2] - The token experienced a significant net outflow of $12.71 million on February 4th, suggesting ongoing distribution and a lack of buying pressure [2] - Dogecoin has fallen below the critical psychological support level of $0.10, with immediate danger indicated by the Parabolic SAR at $0.09455, which could trigger panic selling if breached [5][6] Group 2: Shiba Inu Overview - Shiba Inu has broken below the $0.000007 support level, leading to further downside potential as it tests channel support around $0.00000650-$0.00000660 [8] - All exponential moving averages (EMAs) are positioned above the current price, creating significant resistance between $0.0000074 and $0.0000099 [8] - The Money Flow Index at 30.28 indicates weak money flow and diminished buying pressure, suggesting further downside is possible [9][10]

Market Overview - Crypto markets are experiencing pressure, with Bitcoin (BTC) showing signs of stabilizing below $70,000 after a volatile weekend, despite a more than 2.8% drop in the last 24 hours [1] - Bitcoin remains above recent lows of around $60,000 but struggles to regain momentum after last week's steep decline, raising questions about whether the market is in a deeper bear phase or nearing a bottom [1] Cryptocurrency Performance - The CoinDesk 5 Index (CD5) fell by 3.4%, with all five largest cryptocurrencies declining; Ether (ETH) dropped about 5% but held above the psychological support level of $2,000 [3] - The broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index is down 3.7%, indicating a general decline across major cryptocurrencies [3] Derivatives Positioning - BTC futures are showing a bearish shift, with open interest (OI) decreasing from $19 billion to $16 billion over the past week, indicating sustained deleveraging [6] - Funding rates on Bybit (-2.24%) and Binance (-0.5%) have turned neutral-to-negative, suggesting that short sellers are currently leading the market narrative [6] - The three-month basis has compressed to 3%, reflecting a cooling of institutional demand amid a risk-off sentiment in the derivatives landscape [6] - Options data indicates a defensive shift, with one-week 25-delta skew for BTC rising to 20% and call dominance dropping to 48% [6] - Implied volatility (IV) term structure is in extreme backwardation, with front-end volatility at 85.03%, significantly higher than long-term expectations of around 50% [6] Liquidation Data - Coinglass data shows $397 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a split of 45-55 between longs and shorts; BTC accounted for $234 million, ETH for $74 million, and SOL for $14 million in notional liquidations [6] - The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $68,160 as a critical liquidation level to monitor in case of a price drop [6] Token Launch and Issues - Crypto wallet Rainbow launched its RNBW token, which faced issues as the price fell to $0.025, a 75% drop from its $0.10 initial coin offering (ICO) two months prior, although it has since risen to $0.031 [6] - The drop in price has led to a significant reduction in expectations for a fully diluted valuation (FDV), which is now closer to $31 million, down from a near 80% high earlier in the year [6] - Delays in token distribution to early buyers and participants in Rainbow's on-chain rewards program contributed to the chaos, with some users reporting they had not received their airdropped tokens [6] - Rainbow's cofounder attributed the issues to backend infrastructure challenges, and U.S.-based investors will not have full access to their tokens until December 2026 due to vesting terms [6][7]

Market Overview - Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, dropping to nearly $60,000 before recovering to over $70,000, trading at approximately $69,000 by Saturday morning [1] - Major digital tokens, particularly privacy coins, faced substantial losses following a market selloff [1] Major Losers - Monero, a privacy coin, fell nearly 31% over the week, recently priced at $325 after a slight recovery [2] - World Liberty Financial, backed by President Trump, also lost over 31% of its value, trading just above $0.10 [2] - Dash and Zcash, once favored privacy coins, saw declines of 19% and 22% respectively, with Zcash still up nearly 650% year-over-year [4] Other Affected Altcoins - The memecoin Official Trump (TRUMP) dropped 23% this week, trading at $3.39 [5] - Solana, a competitor to Ethereum, experienced the largest decline among major cryptocurrencies, down over 24% and trading at just over $86 [6] - Ethereum also suffered, down nearly 22% and trading at approximately $2,051 [6] Market Dynamics - The crypto market faced turmoil due to the liquidation of billions in leveraged bets and investor concerns over Trump's Federal Reserve chair nomination of Kevin Warsh, known for his inflation hawkishness [7] - The volatility was not limited to cryptocurrencies, as precious metals and stocks also experienced increased fluctuations [7] Recent Market Movements - Bitcoin saw a slight increase of nearly 1% over the past 24 hours, trading at $69,122 [8] - Ethereum rose by 4% in the same timeframe, reaching $2,051 [8]

Core Insights - Solana has experienced a significant intraday recovery, gaining 12% despite market uncertainty, as the broader crypto market added nearly $200 billion in value [1][10] - Long-term holder buying momentum is slowing, with the HODLer Net Position Change declining, indicating reduced accumulation from investors who typically support prices during downturns [2][3] - A sustained recovery for Solana depends on whether long-term holders resume accumulation; weak buying momentum may hinder durable upside [3] Market Dynamics - The Money Flow Index (MFI) is nearing the oversold threshold below 20.0, suggesting that selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion, which could lead to price stabilization or short-term rebounds [8] - Historically, Solana has entered oversold territory three times in the past two and a half years, each time coinciding with notable price stabilization or reversal [9] Price Analysis - Solana's price is currently trading near $88 after a 12% increase in the past 24 hours, following a drop to an intraday low of approximately $67 [10] - Support from the broader market could enable SOL to push above $90, with a recovery rally requiring the reclaiming of $100 as support to confirm improving momentum [11] - If long-term holder selling continues and $100 is not reclaimed, Solana may remain range-bound near $90, with potential downside toward $78 [12]